Learning to recognize volcanic non-eruptions

An important goal of volcanology is to answer the questions of when, where, and how a volcano will erupt—in other words, eruption prediction. Generally, eruption predictions are based on insights from monitoring data combined with the history of the volcano. An outstanding example is the A.D. 1980–1986 lava dome growth at Mount St. Helens, Washington (United States). Recognition of a consistent pattern of precursors revealed by geophysical, geological, and geochemical monitoring enabled successful predictions of more than 12 dome-building episodes (Swanson et al., 1983). At volcanic systems that are more complex or poorly understood, probabilistic forecasts can be useful (e.g., Newhall and Hoblitt, 2002; Marzocchi and Woo, 2009). In such cases, the probabilities of different types of volcanic events are quantified, using historical accounts and geological studies of a volcano's past activity, supplemented by information from similar volcanoes elsewhere, combined with contemporary monitoring information.