Local topography and streambed hydraulic conductivity influence riparian groundwater age and groundwater-surface water connection

The western U.S. is experiencing increasing rain to snow ratios due to climate change, and scientists are uncertain how changing recharge patterns will affect future groundwater-surface water connection. We examined how watershed topography and streambed hydraulic conductivity impact groundwater age and stream discharge at eight sites along a headwater stream within the Manitou Experimental Forest, CO USA. To do so, we measured: (a) continuous stream and groundwater discharge/level and specific conductivity from April to November 2021; (b) biweekly stream and groundwater chemistry; (c) groundwater chlorofluorocarbons and tritium in spring and fall; (d) streambed hydraulic conductivity; and (e) local slope. We used the chemistry data to calculate fluorite saturation states that were used to inform end-member mixing analysis of streamflow source. We then combined chlorofluorocarbon and tritium data to estimate the age composition of riparian groundwater. Our data suggest that future stream drying is more probable where local slope is steep and streambed hydraulic conductivity is high. In these areas, groundwater source shifted seasonally, as indicated by age increases, and we observed a high fraction of groundwater in streamflow, primarily interflow from adjacent hillslopes. In contrast, where local slope is flat and streambed hydraulic conductivity is low, streamflow is more likely to persist as groundwater age was seasonally constant and buffered by storage in alluvial sediments. Groundwater age and streamflow paired with characterization of watershed topography and subsurface characteristics enabled identification of likely controls on future stream drying patterns.