Low streamflows in Massachusetts: Variability over space and time and relations with climatic and basin variables

Streamflows in Massachusetts have set record lows in recent years despite generally wetter conditions than during the drought of the 1960s, and the reasons for this are not known. To analyse potential drivers of low streamflows in Massachusetts, six low-flow metrics were computed at 107 streamgages. These metrics represent low-flow magnitude, magnitude normalized to median flows, and duration. Multiple linear regressions were used to analyse the variability of low flows over space and time. Potential explanatory variables were computed using climatic, land use, water use, and basin data. For all low-flow metrics, the ratio of precipitation to potential evapotranspiration (P/PET) in July–August explained the most variability, with decreasing P/PET largely explained by lower precipitation. Water/wetland area was a significant explanatory variable in all the normalized-magnitude and duration models, with greater area associated with lower normalized magnitudes and with shorter durations of low flows. Human influence (characterized by development, population, water use, and artificial water storage) had mixed effects. Trends from 1983 to 2022 in summer P/PET and human influence have been strongest in the eastern part of the state where the strongest decreases in flows are observed. Low flows in Massachusetts seem to be driven by a combination of low summer precipitation and human effects, though the specific mechanisms of human influence on flow likely vary between basins.