Morphodynamic controls on the performance of dune-based coastal flood mitigation under sea-level rise

Dune-based adaptation is increasingly used as a nature-based solution for coastal flood mitigation, yet many assessments rely on hydrodynamic-only approaches that treat beach and dune morphology as static, neglecting storm-driven erosion that can degrade dune performance during extreme events. This study develops a process-based modeling framework coupling extreme value analysis of regional wave climate with XBeach surfbeat simulations to evaluate coastal flooding, erosion, and dune performance across three time horizons (2025, 2055, 2085) and four storm return periods (5, 20, 50, and 100 years) at two contrasting sites in Santa Cruz County, California. At Santa Cruz Beach, flood extent increases at an accelerating rate with sea-level rise (SLR) for a given return period, while higher return period storms exhibit diminishing incremental increases under fixed SLR conditions. Storm-scale morphodynamic feedbacks reduce predicted flood extent by up to 32.4% through profile adjustment and nearshore bar formation. Dune effectiveness is strongly regime-dependent, reducing flooding by up to 60% under collision-regime conditions but declining rapidly as the system transitions toward overwash and inundation under stronger storms and late-century SLR. Comparison of static and erodible dune representations shows that flood estimates are not consistently conservative, with differences reaching up to 54.3% depending on storm intensity and time horizon. At Capitola Beach, limited accommodation space and water-level-dominated dynamics collectively constrain morphodynamic adjustment, render the site near its inundation capacity under present-day conditions, and result in near-complete dune collapse and limited flood mitigation across all scenarios. These findings highlight the importance of site-specific regime evaluation, process-based morphodynamic modeling, and adaptive management when assessing dune-based adaptation under rising sea levels.