Li Erikson
Science and Products
Coastal Climate Impacts
The impacts of climate change and sea-level rise around the Pacific and Arctic Oceans can vary tremendously. Thus far the vast majority of national and international impact assessments and models of coastal climate change have focused on low-relief coastlines that are not near seismically active zones. Furthermore, the degree to which extreme waves and wind will add further stress to coastal...
Dynamic coastlines along the western U.S.
The west coast of the United States is extremely complex and changeable because of tectonic activity, mountain building, and land subsidence. These active environments pose a major challenge for accurately assessing climate change impacts, since models were historically developed for more passive sandy coasts.
Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS)
The Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) makes detailed predictions of storm-induced coastal flooding, erosion, and cliff failures over large geographic scales. CoSMoS was developed for hindcast studies, operational applications and future climate scenarios to provide emergency responders and coastal planners with critical storm-hazards information that can be used to increase public safety...
Climate impacts to Arctic coasts
The Arctic region is warming faster than anywhere else in the nation. Understanding the rates and causes of coastal change in Alaska is needed to identify and mitigate hazards that might affect people and animals that call Alaska home.
The Impact of Sea-Level Rise and Climate Change on Pacific Ocean Atolls
Providing basic understanding and specific information on storm-wave inundation of atoll islands that house Department of Defense installations, and assessing the resulting impact of sea-level rise and storm-wave inundation on infrastructure and freshwater availability under a variety of sea-level rise and climatic scenarios.
CoSMoS 3.1: Central California
CoSMoS v3.1 for central California shows projections for future climate scenarios (sea-level rise and storms)
Using Video Imagery to Study Wave Dynamics: Unalakleet
USGS scientists installed two video cameras atop a windmill tower in Unalakleet, Alaska, pointing westward over Norton Sound, to observe and quantify coastal processes such as wave run-up, development of rip channels, bluff erosion, and movement of sandbars and ice floes.
CoSMoS 3.0: Southern California
CoSMoS 3.0 for southern California provides detailed predictions of coastal flooding due to both future sea-level rise and storms, integrated with predictions of long-term coastal evolution (beach changes and coastal cliff retreat) for the Southern California region, from Point Conception (Santa Barbara County) to Imperial Beach (San Diego County).
CoSMoS 2.2: Pt. Arena and Russian River
Building on the initial work in the Bay Area and Outer Coast, CoSMoS 2.2 adds river flows to help users project combined river and coastal flooding along the northern California coast from Bodega Head to Point Arena.
CoSMoS 2.1: San Francisco Bay
With primary support from the National Estuarine Research Reserve (NERR), CoSMoS is set-up within the San Francisco Bay as part of Our Coast Our Future (OCOF).
CoSMoS 2.0: North-central California (outer coast)
Our Coast Our Future (OCOF) is a collaborative, user-driven project providing science-based decision-support tools to help coastal planners and emergency responders understand, visualize, and anticipate local impacts from sea-level rise (SLR) and storms in the San Francisco Bay region.
Climate impacts to Arctic coasts, recent activities
New instruments installed to measure Arctic coastal erosion; community outreach event held
Coastal Change in Alaska
Alaska's north coast has been home to indigenous communities for centuries. Changing coastlines threaten important infrastructure and historic sites that support indigenous communities. Changing coastlines also can potentially reduce habitat for Arctic wildlife, such as polar bears, shorebirds, and walruses. Oil- and gas-related development sites and U.S. Department of Defense installations
Hydrodynamic model of the San Francisco Bay and Delta, California
A 2-D hydrodynamic model of the San Francisco Bay and Delta was constructed using the Delft3D Flexible Mesh modeling suite to simulate water levels. Required model input files are provided to run the model for the time period from 10/1/18 to 3/30/19. This data release describes the construction and validation of the model application and provides input files suitable to run the model on...
Modeled extreme total water levels along the U.S. west coast
This dataset contains information on the probabilities of storm-induced erosion (collision, inundation and overwash) for each 100-meter (m) section of the United States Pacific coast for return period storm scenarios. The analysis is based on a storm-impact scaling model that uses observations of beach morphology combined with sophisticated hydrodynamic models to predict how the coast will...
Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) for Central California, v3.1
CoSMoS v3.1 for Central California shows projections for future climate scenarios to provide emergency responders and coastal planners with critical storm-hazards information that can be used to increase public safety, mitigate physical damages, and more effectively manage and allocate resources within complex coastal settings. Data for Central California: Pt. Conception to Golden Gate Bridge...
Modeled 21st century storm surge, waves, and coastal flood hazards and supporting oceanographic and geological field data (2010 and 2011) for Arey and Barter Islands, Alaska and vicinity
The data provided in this release are part of a study that assessed the likelihood of changes to a barrier island – lagoon systems in response to projected changes in atmospheric and oceanographic forcing associated with Arctic warming. The study investigates the dominance and relative importance of physical processes shaping the modern Arctic coastline as well as decadal flood potentials of...
Projected responses of the coastal water table for California using present-day and future sea-level rise scenarios
Coastal groundwater levels (heads) can increase with sea level rise (SLR) where shallow groundwater floats on underlying seawater. In some areas coastal groundwater could rise almost as much as SLR, but where rising groundwater intersects surface drainage features, the increase will be less. Numerical modeling can provide insight into coastal areas that may be more or less vulnerable to...
Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS)
CoSMoS makes detailed predictions over large geographic scales of storm-induced coastal flooding and erosion for both current and future SLR scenarios, as well as long-term shoreline change and cliff retreat. Several versions of CoSMoS have been implemented for areas of the California coast, including Southern California, Central California, and San Francisco Bay.
Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) for Southern California, v3.0, Phase 2
The Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) makes detailed predictions (meter-scale) over large geographic scales (100s of kilometers) of storm-induced coastal flooding and erosion for both current and future sea-level rise (SLR) scenarios. CoSMoS v3.0 for Southern California shows projections for future climate scenarios (sea-level rise and storms) to provide emergency responders and...
Near-surface wind fields for San Francisco Bay--historical and 21st-century projected time series
To support CoSMoS in the San Francisco Bay, time series of historical and 21st-century near-surface wind fields (eastward and northward wind arrays) were simulated throughout the Bay. While global climate models provide useful projections of near-surface wind vectors into the 21st century, resolution is not sufficient enough for use in regional wave modeling projects, such as CoSMoS. Short-...
Nearshore waves in southern California: hindcast, and modeled historical and 21st-century projected time series
Abstract: This data release presents modeled time series of nearshore waves along the southern California coast, from Point Conception to the Mexican border, hindcasted for 1980-2010 and projected using global climate model forcing for 1975-2005 and 2012-2100.
Details: As part of the Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS), time series of hindcast, historical, and 21st-century
Wave Projections for United States Mainland Coasts: U.S. Geological Survey methods summary to accompany data release
Summary of data processing methods to accompany the U.S. Geological Survey data release, “Wave and wind projections for United States Coasts; Mainland, Pacific Islands, and United States-Affiliated Pacific Islands.”
San Francisco Bay Basic Tide Model
This web page provides a link to files that may be used to run a basic depth-averaged (2DH) Deltares Delft3D version 4.00.01 astronomic tide model for San Francisco Bay. These files are provided ‘as is’ with the aim of promoting scientific advancement in the understanding of San Francisco Bay processes.
USGS permafrost research determines the risks of permafrost thaw to biologic and hydrologic resources
The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in collaboration with university, Federal, Tribal, and independent partners, conducts fundamental research on the distribution, vulnerability, and importance of permafrost in arctic and boreal ecosystems. Scientists, land managers, and policy makers use USGS data to help make decisions for development, wildlife...
Waldrop, Mark P.; Anderson, Lesleigh; Dornblaser, Mark; Erikson, Li H.; Gibbs, Ann E.; Herman-Mercer, Nicole M.; James, Stephanie R.; Jones, Miriam C.; Koch, Joshua C.; Leewis, Mary-Cathrine; Manies, Kristen L.; Minsley, Burke J.; Pastick, Neal J.; Patil, Vijay; Urban, Frank; Walvoord, Michelle A.; Wickland, Kimberly P.; Zimmerman, Christian
Changing storm conditions in response to projected 21st century climate change and the potential impact on an arctic barrier island–lagoon system—A pilot study for Arey Island and Lagoon, eastern Arctic Alaska
Executive SummaryArey Lagoon, located in eastern Arctic Alaska, supports a highly productive ecosystem, where soft substrate and coastal wet sedge fringing the shores are feeding grounds and nurseries for a variety of marine fish and waterfowl. The lagoon is partially protected from the direct onslaught of Arctic Ocean waves by a barrier island...
Erikson, Li H.; Gibbs, Ann E.; Richmond, Bruce M.; Storlazzi, Curt D.; Jones, Benjamin M.; Ohman, Karin
Impacts of sea-level rise on the tidal reach of California coastal rivers using the Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS)
In coastal rivers, the interactions between tides and fluvial discharge affect local ecology, sedimentation, river dynamics, river mouth configuration, and the flooding potential in adjacent wetlands and low-lying areas. With sea-level rise, the tidal reach within coastal rivers can expand upstream, impacting river dynamics and increasing flood...
O'Neill, Andrea C.; Erikson, Li H.; Barnard, Patrick L. Modeling sediment bypassing around idealized rocky headlands
Alongshore sediment bypassing rocky headlands remains understudied despite the importance of characterizing littoral processes for erosion abatement, beach management, and climate change adaptation. To address this gap, a numerical model sediment transport study was developed to identify controlling factors and mechanisms for sediment headland...
Douglas A. George; John L. Largier; Greg B. Pasternack; Barnard, Patrick L.; Storlazzi, Curt D.; Erikson, Li H. Assessing patterns of annual change to permafrost bluffs along the North Slope coast of Alaska using high-resolution imagery and elevation models
Coastal permafrost bluffs at Barter Island, on the North Slope, Beaufort Sea Coast of Alaska are among the most rapidly eroding along Alaska’s coast, having retreated up to 132 m between 1955 and 2015. Here we quantify rates and patterns of change over a single year using very-high resolution orthophotomosaics and co-registered surface elevation...
Gibbs, Ann E.; Nolan, Matt; Richmond, Bruce M.; Snyder, Alexander G.; Erikson, Li Dynamic flood modeling essential to assess the coastal impacts of climate change
Coastal inundation due to sea level rise (SLR) is projected to displace hundreds of millions of people worldwide over the next century, creating significant economic, humanitarian, and national-security challenges. However, the majority of previous efforts to characterize potential coastal impacts of climate change have focused primarily on long-...
Barnard, Patrick L.; Erikson, Li H.; Foxgrover, Amy C.; Finzi Hart, Juliette A.; Limber, Patrick W.; O'Neill, Andrea C.; van Ormondt, Maarten; Vitousek, Sean; Wood, Nathan J.; Hayden, Maya K.; Jones, Jeanne M. Towards determining spatial methane distribution on Arctic permafrost bluffs with an unmanned aerial system
Arctic permafrost stores vast amounts of methane (CH4) in subsurface reservoirs. Thawing permafrost creates areas for this potent greenhouse gas to be released to the atmosphere. Identifying ‘hot spots’ of methane flux on a local scale has been limited by the spatial scales of traditional ground-based or satellite-based methane-sampling methods....
Oberle, Ferdinand K. J.; Gibbs, Ann E.; Richmond, Bruce M.; Erikson, Li H.; Waldrop, Mark P.; Swarzenski, Peter W. Storm surge propagation and flooding in small tidal rivers during events of mixed coastal and fluvial influence
The highly urbanized estuary of San Francisco Bay is an excellent example of a location susceptible to flooding from both coastal and fluvial influences. As part of developing a forecast model that integrates fluvial and oceanic drivers, a case study of the Napa River and its interactions with the San Francisco Bay was performed. For this...
Herdman, Liv; Erikson, Li H.; Barnard, Patrick L. Identification of storm events and contiguous coastal sections for deterministic modeling of extreme coastal flood events in response to climate change
Deterministic dynamical modeling of future climate conditions and associated hazards, such as flooding, can be computationally-expensive if century-long time-series of waves, sea level variations, and overland flow patterns are simulated. To alleviate some of the computational costs, local impacts of individual coastal storms can be explored by...
Erikson, Li H.; Espejo, Antonio; Barnard, Patrick L.; Katherine A. Serafin; Hegermiller, Christie; O'Neill, Andrea C.; Ruggerio, Peter; Limber, Patrick W.; Mendez, Fernando J. Assessing and communicating the impacts of climate change on the Southern California coast
Over the course of this and the next century, the combination of rising sea levels, severe storms, and coastal erosion will threaten the sustainability of coastal communities, development, and ecosystems as we currently know them. To clearly identify coastal vulnerabilities and develop appropriate adaptation strategies for projected increased...
Erikson, Li H.; Barnard, Patrick L.; O'Neill, Andrea C.; Limber, Patrick; Vitousek, Sean; Finzi Hart, Juliette; Hayden, Maya; Jones, Jeanne M.; Wood, Nathan J.; Fitzgibbon, Michael; Foxgrover, Amy C.; Lovering, Jessica Projected 21st century coastal flooding in the Southern California Bight. Part 2: Tools for assessing climate change-driven coastal hazards and socio-economic impacts
This paper is the second of two that describes the Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) approach for quantifying physical hazards and socio-economic hazard exposure in coastal zones affected by sea-level rise and changing coastal storms. The modelling approach, presented in Part 1, downscales atmospheric global-scale projections to local scale...
Erikson, Li H.; Barnard, Patrick L.; O'Neill, Andrea C.; Wood, Nathan J.; Jones, Jeanne M.; Finzi Hart, Juliette; Vitousek, Sean; Limber, Patrick W.; Hayden, Maya; Fitzgibbon, Michael; Lovering, Jessica; Foxgrover, Amy C. A model ensemble for projecting multi‐decadal coastal cliff retreat during the 21st century
Sea cliff retreat rates are expected to accelerate with rising sea levels during the 21st century. Here we develop an approach for a multi‐model ensemble that efficiently projects time‐averaged sea cliff retreat over multi‐decadal time scales and large (>50 km) spatial scales. The ensemble consists of five simple 1‐D models adapted from the...
Limber, Patrick W.; Barnard, Patrick L.; Vitousek, Sean; Erikson, Li H.
Explore Coastal Change in Alaska
A new geonarrative shows how USGS Coastal Change Hazards research is directly addressing the ability to understand, measure and project coastal change in permafrost regions.
Coastal Change Mapping and Research in Alaska
USGS studies coastal change along Alaska’s 66,000 miles of complex coastline - which stands as a tremendous resource to the Nation.
New instruments installed to measure Arctic coastal erosion
In July 2018, three USGS Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center researchers installed instruments and hosted a community outreach event.
ABC News speaks to USGS researchers about Arctic coastal change
Documentary features USGS researchers