Research Oceanographer at the USGS Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center
Science and Products
Coastal Climate Impacts
Climate impacts to Arctic coasts
Using Video Imagery to Study Wave Dynamics: Unalakleet
Using Video Imagery to Study Sediment Transport and Wave Dynamics: Nuvuk (Point Barrow)
Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS)
Dynamic coastlines along the western U.S.
The Impact of Sea-Level Rise and Climate Change on Pacific Ocean Atolls
CoSMoS 3.1: Central California
CoSMoS 3.0: Southern California
CoSMoS 2.2: Pt. Arena and Russian River
CoSMoS 2.1: San Francisco Bay
CoSMoS 2.0: North-central California (outer coast)
Wave model results of the central Beaufort Sea coast, Alaska
Historical shorelines and morphological metrics for barrier islands and spits along the north coast of Alaska between Cape Beaufort and the U.S.-Canadian border, 1947 to 2019
Nearshore bathymetry data from the Unalakleet River mouth, Alaska, 2019
Hydrodynamic model of the San Francisco Bay and Delta, California
Modeled extreme total water levels along the U.S. west coast
Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) for Central California, v3.1
Modeled 21st century storm surge, waves, and coastal flood hazards and supporting oceanographic and geological field data (2010 and 2011) for Arey and Barter Islands, Alaska and vicinity
Projected responses of the coastal water table for California using present-day and future sea-level rise scenarios
Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) for Southern California, v3.0, Phase 2
Near-surface wind fields for San Francisco Bay--historical and 21st-century projected time series
Nearshore waves in southern California: hindcast, and modeled historical and 21st-century projected time series
Wave projections for United States mainland coasts
Drivers, dynamics and impacts of changing Arctic coasts
Knowledge gaps update to the 2019 IPCC special report on the ocean and cryosphere: Prospects to refine coastal flood hazard assessments and adaptation strategies with at-risk communities of Alaska
Projecting climate dependent coastal flood risk with a hybrid statistical dynamical model
Seven decades of coastal change at Barter Island, Alaska: Exploring the importance of waves and temperature on erosion of coastal permafrost bluffs
Assessment of barrier island morphological change in northern Alaska
Drivers of extreme water levels in a large, urban, high-energy coastal estuary – A case study of the San Francisco Bay
Multiple climate change-driven tipping points for coastal systems
Global-scale changes to extreme ocean wave events due to anthropogenic warming
Assessment of flood forecast products for a coupled tributary-Coastal model
USGS permafrost research determines the risks of permafrost thaw to biologic and hydrologic resources
Changing storm conditions in response to projected 21st century climate change and the potential impact on an arctic barrier island–lagoon system—A pilot study for Arey Island and Lagoon, eastern Arctic Alaska
Impacts of sea-level rise on the tidal reach of California coastal rivers using the Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS)
Coastal Change in Alaska
Alaska's north coast has been home to indigenous communities for centuries. Changing coastlines threaten important infrastructure and historic sites that support indigenous communities. Changing coastlines also can potentially reduce habitat for Arctic wildlife, such as polar bears, shorebirds, and walruses. Oil- and gas-related development sites and U.S. Department of Defense installations
Science and Products
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Coastal Climate Impacts
The impacts of climate change and sea-level rise around the Pacific and Arctic Oceans can vary tremendously. Thus far the vast majority of national and international impact assessments and models of coastal climate change have focused on low-relief coastlines that are not near seismically active zones. Furthermore, the degree to which extreme waves and wind will add further stress to coastal...Climate impacts to Arctic coasts
The Arctic region is warming faster than anywhere else in the nation. Understanding the rates and causes of coastal change in Alaska is needed to identify and mitigate hazards that might affect people and animals that call Alaska home.Using Video Imagery to Study Wave Dynamics: Unalakleet
USGS scientists installed two video cameras atop a windmill tower in Unalakleet, Alaska, pointing westward over Norton Sound, to observe and quantify coastal processes such as wave run-up, development of rip channels, bluff erosion, and movement of sandbars and ice floes.Using Video Imagery to Study Sediment Transport and Wave Dynamics: Nuvuk (Point Barrow)
Two coastal observing video cameras are installed atop a utility pole near the northernmost point of land in the United States, at Nuvuk (Point Barrow), Alaska. The cameras point northwest toward the Arctic Ocean and the boundary between the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas, and will be used to observe and quantify coastal processes such as wave run-up, bluff erosion, movement of sandbars and ice floes...Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS)
The Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) makes detailed predictions of storm-induced coastal flooding, erosion, and cliff failures over large geographic scales. CoSMoS was developed for hindcast studies, operational applications and future climate scenarios to provide emergency responders and coastal planners with critical storm-hazards information that can be used to increase public safety...Dynamic coastlines along the western U.S.
The west coast of the United States is extremely complex and changeable because of tectonic activity, mountain building, and land subsidence. These active environments pose a major challenge for accurately assessing climate change impacts, since models were historically developed for more passive sandy coasts.The Impact of Sea-Level Rise and Climate Change on Pacific Ocean Atolls
Providing basic understanding and specific information on storm-wave inundation of atoll islands that house Department of Defense installations, and assessing the resulting impact of sea-level rise and storm-wave inundation on infrastructure and freshwater availability under a variety of sea-level rise and climatic scenarios.CoSMoS 3.1: Central California
CoSMoS v3.1 for central California shows projections for future climate scenarios (sea-level rise and storms)CoSMoS 3.0: Southern California
CoSMoS 3.0 for southern California provides detailed predictions of coastal flooding due to both future sea-level rise and storms, integrated with predictions of long-term coastal evolution (beach changes and coastal cliff retreat) for the Southern California region, from Point Conception (Santa Barbara County) to Imperial Beach (San Diego County).CoSMoS 2.2: Pt. Arena and Russian River
Building on the initial work in the Bay Area and Outer Coast, CoSMoS 2.2 adds river flows to help users project combined river and coastal flooding along the northern California coast from Bodega Head to Point Arena.CoSMoS 2.1: San Francisco Bay
With primary support from the National Estuarine Research Reserve (NERR), CoSMoS is set-up within the San Francisco Bay as part of Our Coast Our Future (OCOF).CoSMoS 2.0: North-central California (outer coast)
Our Coast Our Future (OCOF) is a collaborative, user-driven project providing science-based decision-support tools to help coastal planners and emergency responders understand, visualize, and anticipate local impacts from sea-level rise (SLR) and storms in the San Francisco Bay region. - Data
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Wave model results of the central Beaufort Sea coast, Alaska
A three-level SWAN (version 41.31) nesting grid has been developed for the central Beaufort Sea coast to simulate waves over the hindcast period 1979 - 2019. The model includes the implementations of sea ice by Rogers (2019) and includes both 1) a dissipation source term and 2) a scaling of wind input source as functions by sea ice. The bathymetric dataset used for the model is the InternationalHistorical shorelines and morphological metrics for barrier islands and spits along the north coast of Alaska between Cape Beaufort and the U.S.-Canadian border, 1947 to 2019
A suite of morphological metrics were derived from existing shoreline and elevation datasets for barrier islands and spits located along the north-slope coast of Alaska between Cape Beaufort and the U.S.-Canadian border. This dataset includes barrier shorelines and polygons attributed with morphological metrics from five time periods: 1950s, 1980s, 2000s, 2010s, and 2020s.Nearshore bathymetry data from the Unalakleet River mouth, Alaska, 2019
This data release presents nearshore bathymetry data collected at the mouth of the Unalakleet River in Alaska, near the city of Unalakleet. The data were collected in August 2019 by the U.S. Geological Survey, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center. Nearshore bathymetry was measured along survey lines from the shore to a depth of approximately -7.4 m NAVD88 and in a portion of the estuary closeHydrodynamic model of the San Francisco Bay and Delta, California
A two-dimensional hydrodynamic model of the San Francisco Bay and Delta was constructed using the Delft3D Flexible Mesh (DFM) modeling suite (www.deltares.nl/en/software/delft3d-flexible-mesh-suite/) to simulate water levels. Required model input files are provided to run the model for the time period from October 1, 2018, to April 30, 2019. This data release describes the construction and validatModeled extreme total water levels along the U.S. west coast
This dataset contains information on the probabilities of storm-induced erosion (collision, inundation and overwash) for each 100-meter (m) section of the United States Pacific coast for return period storm scenarios. The analysis is based on a storm-impact scaling model that uses observations of beach morphology combined with sophisticated hydrodynamic models to predict how the coast will respondCoastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) for Central California, v3.1
The Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) makes detailed predictions (meter-scale) over large geographic scales (100s of kilometers) of storm-induced coastal flooding and erosion for both current and future sea-level rise (SLR) scenarios. CoSMoS v3.1 for Central California shows projections for future climate scenarios (sea-level rise and storms) to provide emergency responders and coastal planneModeled 21st century storm surge, waves, and coastal flood hazards and supporting oceanographic and geological field data (2010 and 2011) for Arey and Barter Islands, Alaska and vicinity
Changes in Arctic coastal ecosystems in response to global warming may be some of the most severe on the planet. A better understanding and analysis of the rates at which these changes are expected to occur over the coming decades is crucial in order to delineate high-priority areas that are likely to be affected by climate changes. The data provided in this release are part of a study that assessProjected responses of the coastal water table for California using present-day and future sea-level rise scenarios
Coastal groundwater levels (heads) can increase with sea level rise (SLR) where shallow groundwater floats on underlying seawater. In some areas coastal groundwater could rise almost as much as SLR, but where rising groundwater intersects surface drainage features, the increase will be less. Numerical modeling can provide insight into coastal areas that may be more or less vulnerable to hazards asCoastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) for Southern California, v3.0, Phase 2
The Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) makes detailed predictions (meter-scale) over large geographic scales (100s of kilometers) of storm-induced coastal flooding and erosion for both current and future sea-level-rise scenarios, as well as long-term shoreline change and cliff retreat. Resulting projections for future climate scenarios (sea-level rise and storms) provide emergency responders aNear-surface wind fields for San Francisco Bay--historical and 21st-century projected time series
To support Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) in the San Francisco Bay (v2.1), time series of historical and 21st-century near-surface wind fields (eastward and northward wind arrays) were simulated throughout the Bay. While global climate models (GCMs) provide useful projections of near-surface wind vectors into the 21st century, resolution is not sufficient enough for use in regional wave mNearshore waves in southern California: hindcast, and modeled historical and 21st-century projected time series
As part of the Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS), time series of hindcast, historical, and 21st-century nearshore wave parameters (wave height, period, and direction) were simulated for the southern California coast from Point Conception to the Mexican border. The hindcast (1980-2010) time series represents reanalysis-forced offshore waves propagated to the nearshore, whereas the historical (Wave projections for United States mainland coasts
Coastal managers and ocean engineers rely heavily on projected average and extreme wave conditions for planning and design purposes, but when working on a local or regional scale, are faced with much uncertainty as changes in the global climate impart spatially-varying trends. Future storm conditions are likely to evolve in a fashion that is unlike past conditions and is ultimately dependent on th - Publications
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Drivers, dynamics and impacts of changing Arctic coasts
Arctic coasts are vulnerable to the effects of climate change, including rising sea levels and the loss of permafrost, sea ice and glaciers. Assessing the influence of anthropogenic warming on Arctic coastal dynamics, however, is challenged by the limited availability of observational, oceanographic and environmental data. Yet, with the majority of permafrost coasts being erosive, coupled with proKnowledge gaps update to the 2019 IPCC special report on the ocean and cryosphere: Prospects to refine coastal flood hazard assessments and adaptation strategies with at-risk communities of Alaska
This article reviews the status of knowledge gaps and co-production process challenges that impede coastal flood hazard resilience planning in communities of northwestern Alaska, where threat levels are high. Discussion focuses on the state of knowledge arising after preparation of the 2019 IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate and highlights prospects to address urProjecting climate dependent coastal flood risk with a hybrid statistical dynamical model
Numerical models for tides, storm surge, and wave runup have demonstrated ability to accurately define spatially varying flood surfaces. However these models are typically too computationally expensive to dynamically simulate the full parameter space of future oceanographic, atmospheric, and hydrologic conditions that will constructively compound in the nearshore to cause both extreme event and nuSeven decades of coastal change at Barter Island, Alaska: Exploring the importance of waves and temperature on erosion of coastal permafrost bluffs
Observational data of coastal change over much of the Arctic are limited largely due to its immensity, remoteness, harsh environment, and restricted periods of sunlight and ice-free conditions. Barter Island, Alaska, is one of the few locations where an extensive, observational dataset exists, which enables a detailed assessment of the trends and patterns of coastal change over decadal to annual tAssessment of barrier island morphological change in northern Alaska
Arctic barriers islands are highly dynamic features influenced by a variety of oceanographic, geologic, and environmental factors. Many Alaskan barrier islands and spits serve as habitat and protection for native species, as well as shelter the coast from waves and storms that cause flooding and degradation of coastal villages. This study summarizes changes to barrier morphology in time and spaceDrivers of extreme water levels in a large, urban, high-energy coastal estuary – A case study of the San Francisco Bay
Reliable and long-term hindcast data of water levels are essential in quantifying return period and values of extreme water levels. In order to inform design decisions on a local flood control district level, process-based numerical modeling has proven an essential tool to provide the needed temporal and spatial coverage for different extreme value analysis methods. To determine the importance ofMultiple climate change-driven tipping points for coastal systems
As the climate evolves over the next century, the interaction of accelerating sea level rise (SLR) and storms, combined with confining development and infrastructure, will place greater stresses on physical, ecological, and human systems along the ocean-land margin. Many of these valued coastal systems could reach “tipping points,” at which hazard exposure substantially increases and threatens theGlobal-scale changes to extreme ocean wave events due to anthropogenic warming
Extreme surface ocean waves are often primary drivers of coastal flooding and erosion over various time scales. Hence, understanding future changes in extreme wave events owing to global warming is of socio-economic and environmental significance. However, our current knowledge of potential changes in high-frequency (defined here as having return periods of less than 1 year) extreme wave events arAssessment of flood forecast products for a coupled tributary-Coastal model
Compound flooding, resulting from a combination of riverine and coastal processes, is a complex but important hazard to resolve along urbanized shorelines in the vicinity of river mouths. However, inland flooding models rarely consider oceanographic conditions, and vice versa for coastal flood models. Here, we describe the development of an operational, integrated coastal-watershed flooding modelUSGS permafrost research determines the risks of permafrost thaw to biologic and hydrologic resources
The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in collaboration with university, Federal, Tribal, and independent partners, conducts fundamental research on the distribution, vulnerability, and importance of permafrost in arctic and boreal ecosystems. Scientists, land managers, and policy makers use USGS data to help make decisions for development, wildlife habitat, and other needs. Native villages and citiesByNatural Hazards, Water Resources, Climate Research and Development Program, Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, Earth Resources Observation and Science Center, Land Change Science Program, Volcano Hazards, Volcano Science Center, Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center , Geology, Geophysics, and Geochemistry Science Center, Geology, Minerals, Energy, and Geophysics Science Center, Geosciences and Environmental Change Science Center, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science CenterChanging storm conditions in response to projected 21st century climate change and the potential impact on an arctic barrier island–lagoon system—A pilot study for Arey Island and Lagoon, eastern Arctic Alaska
Executive SummaryArey Lagoon, located in eastern Arctic Alaska, supports a highly productive ecosystem, where soft substrate and coastal wet sedge fringing the shores are feeding grounds and nurseries for a variety of marine fish and waterfowl. The lagoon is partially protected from the direct onslaught of Arctic Ocean waves by a barrier island chain (Arey Island) which in itself provides importanImpacts of sea-level rise on the tidal reach of California coastal rivers using the Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS)
In coastal rivers, the interactions between tides and fluvial discharge affect local ecology, sedimentation, river dynamics, river mouth configuration, and the flooding potential in adjacent wetlands and low-lying areas. With sea-level rise, the tidal reach within coastal rivers can expand upstream, impacting river dynamics and increasing flood risk across a much greater area. Rivers along the Pac - Web Tools
Coastal Change in Alaska
Alaska's north coast has been home to indigenous communities for centuries. Changing coastlines threaten important infrastructure and historic sites that support indigenous communities. Changing coastlines also can potentially reduce habitat for Arctic wildlife, such as polar bears, shorebirds, and walruses. Oil- and gas-related development sites and U.S. Department of Defense installations
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