Science and Products
Controls of multi-modal wave conditions in a complex coastal setting
Coastal hazards emerge from the combined effect of wave conditions and sea level anomalies associated with storms or low-frequency atmosphere-ocean oscillations. Rigorous characterization of wave climate is limited by the availability of spectral wave observations, the computational cost of dynamical simulations, and the ability to link wave-...Hegermiller, Christie; Rueda, Ana C.; Erikson, Li H.; Barnard, Patrick L.; Antolinez, J.A.A.; Mendez, Fernando J.
Climate change-driven cliff and beach evolution at decadal to centennial time scales
Here we develop a computationally efficient method that evolves cross-shore profiles of sand beaches with or without cliffs along natural and urban coastal environments and across expansive geographic areas at decadal to centennial time-scales driven by 21st century climate change projections. The model requires projected sea level rise rates,...Erikson, Li; O'Neill, Andrea; Barnard, Patrick; Vitousek, Sean; Limber, Patrick
Downscaling wind and wavefields for 21st century coastal flood hazard projections in a region of complex terrain
While global climate models (GCMs) provide useful projections of near-surface wind vectors into the 21st century, resolution is not sufficient enough for use in regional wave modeling. Statistically downscaled GCM projections from Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogues provide daily averaged near-surface winds at an appropriate spatial...O'Neill, Andrea; Erikson, Li; Barnard, Patrick
Doubling of coastal flooding frequency within decades due to sea-level rise
Global climate change drives sea-level rise, increasing the frequency of coastal flooding. In most coastal regions, the amount of sea-level rise occurring over years to decades is significantly smaller than normal ocean-level fluctuations caused by tides, waves, and storm surge. However, even gradual sea-level rise can rapidly increase the...Vitousek, Sean; Barnard, Patrick L.; Fletcher, Charles H.; Frazer, Neil; Erikson, Li; Storlazzi, Curt D.
A model integrating longshore and cross-shore processes for predicting long-term shoreline response to climate change
We present a shoreline change model for coastal hazard assessment and management planning. The model, CoSMoS-COAST (Coastal One-line Assimilated Simulation Tool), is a transect-based, one-line model that predicts short-term and long-term shoreline response to climate change in the 21st century. The proposed model represents a novel, modular...Vitousek, Sean; Barnard, Patrick; Limber, Patrick W.; Erikson, Li; Cole, Blake
CoSMoS (Coastal Storm Modeling System) Southern California v3.0 Phase 2 storm-hazard projections
The Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) makes detailed predictions (meter-scale) over large geographic scales (100s of kilometers) of storm-induced coastal flooding and erosion for both current and future SLR scenarios, as well as long-term shoreline change and cliff retreat. Resulting projections for future climate scenarios (...Barnard, Patrick; Erikson, Li; O'Neill, Andrea; Foxgrover, Amy; Herdman, Liv
A multimodal wave spectrum-based approach for statistical downscaling of local wave climate
Characterization of wave climate by bulk wave parameters is insufficient for many coastal studies, including those focused on assessing coastal hazards and long-term wave climate influences on coastal evolution. This issue is particularly relevant for studies using statistical downscaling of atmospheric fields to local wave conditions, which are...Hegermiller, Christie; Antolinez, Jose A A; Rueda, Ana C.; Camus, Paula; Perez, Jorge; Erikson, Li; Barnard, Patrick; Mendez, Fernando J.
CoSMoS Southern California v3.0 Phase 1 (100-year storm) storm hazard projections
The Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) makes detailed predictions (meter-scale) over large geographic scales (100s of kilometers) of storm-induced coastal flooding and erosion for both current and future sea-level rise (SLR) scenarios. CoSMoS v3.0 for Southern California shows projections for future climate scenarios (sea-level rise and storms...Barnard, Patrick; Erikson, Li; Foxgrover, Amy; O'Neill, Andrea; Herdman, Liv
CoSMoS v3.0 Phase 2 flood-hazard projections: San Diego County
CoSMoS (Coastal Storm Modeling System) v3.0 for Southern California. Phase 2 data for Southern California include flood-hazard information for a variety of storm conditions and sea-level rise scenarios. Several changes from Phase 1 projections are reflected in many areas. Data will be disseminated by county, with San Diego County being the first...Barnard, Patrick; Erikson, Li; O'Neill, Andrea; Foxgrover, Amy; Herdman, Liv
Nearshore waves in southern California: Hindcast, and modeled historical and 21st-century projected time series
As part of the Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS), time series of hindcast, historical, and 21st-century nearshore wave parameters (wave height, period, and direction) were simulated for the southern California coast from Point Conception to the Mexican border. The hindcast (1980-2010) time series represents reanalysis-forced offshore waves...Hegermiller, Christie; Erikson, Li; Barnard, Patrick
Changes to extreme wave climates of islands within the Western Tropical Pacific throughout the 21st century under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, with implications for island vulnerability and sustainability
Waves are the dominant influence on coastal morphology and ecosystem structure of tropical Pacific islands. Wave heights, periods, and directions for the 21st century were projected using near-surface wind fields from four atmosphere-ocean coupled global climate models (GCM) under representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5. GCM-...Shope, James B.; Storlazzi, Curt; Erikson, Li; Hegermiller, Christie
Seasonal electrical resistivity surveys of a coastal bluff, Barter Island, North Slope Alaska
Select coastal regions of the North Slope of Alaska are experiencing high erosion rates that can be attributed in part to recent warming trends and associated increased storm intensity and frequency. The upper sediment column of the coastal North Slope of Alaska can be described as continuous permafrost underlying a thin (typically less than 1–2 m...Swarzenski, Peter W.; Johnson, Cordell; Lorenson, Thomas; Conaway, Christopher H.; Gibbs, Ann E.; Erikson, Li; Richmond, Bruce M.; Waldrop, Mark P.