Observations and morphodynamic modeling of decadal-scale morphologic change in estuaries under sea level rise

Sea level rise is expected to affect coastal areas all around the world, including the estuarine environment. New bathymetry collected in 2014 provided a unique opportunity to test the modeling of Elmilady et al. (2019), who presented a morphodynamic DELFT3D model of San Pablo Bay, California, that included detailed tidal water movement, wind-wave action, sediment transport, and resulting bed level updates. Their hindcasts (1856–1983) showed significant skill in reproducing observed patterns and volumes of deposition and erosion in San Pablo Bay. Their forecasts (1983–2100) showed that sea level rise results in increased deposition, loss of intertidal flats because of drowning, and a greater channel volume. The model, in general, forecasted observed trends in change from 1983 to 2014. Morphodynamic modeling is a promising approach for identifying the effect of sea level rise on estuarine environments.