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Operational earthquake forecasting can enhance earthquake preparedness

September 4, 2014

We cannot yet predict large earthquakes in the short term with much reliability and skill, but the strong clustering exhibited in seismic sequences tells us that earthquake probabilities are not constant in time; they generally rise and fall over periods of days to years in correlation with nearby seismic activity. Operational earthquake forecasting (OEF) is the dissemination of authoritative information about these time‐dependent probabilities to help communities prepare for potentially destructive earthquakes. The goal of OEF is to inform the decisions that people and organizations must continually make to mitigate seismic risk and prepare for potentially destructive earthquakes on time scales from days to decades. To fulfill this role, OEF must provide a complete description of the seismic hazard—ground‐motion exceedance probabilities as well as short‐term rupture probabilities—in concert with the long‐term forecasts of probabilistic seismic‐hazard analysis (PSHA).

Publication Year 2014
Title Operational earthquake forecasting can enhance earthquake preparedness
DOI 10.1785/0220140143
Authors T.H. Jordan, W. Marzocchi, A.J. Michael, M.C. Gerstenberger
Publication Type Article
Publication Subtype Journal Article
Series Title Seismological Research Letters
Index ID 70123309
Record Source USGS Publications Warehouse
USGS Organization Earthquake Science Center