Land system change has been identified as one of four major Earth system processes where change has passed a destabilizing threshold. A historical record of landscape change is required to understand the impacts change has had on human and natural systems, while scenarios of future landscape change are required to facilitate planning and mitigation efforts. A methodology for modeling long-term historical and future landscape change was applied in the Delaware River Basin of the United States. A parcel-based modeling framework was used to reconstruct historical landscapes back to 1680, parameterized with a variety of spatial and nonspatial historical datasets. Similarly, scenarios of future landscape change were modeled for multiple scenarios out to 2100. Results demonstrate the ability to represent historical land cover proportions and general patterns at broad spatial scales and model multiple potential future landscape trajectories. The resulting land cover collection provides consistent data from 1680 through 2100, at a 30-m spatial resolution, 10-year intervals, and high thematic resolution. The data are consistent with the spatial and thematic characteristics of widely used national-scale land cover datasets, facilitating use within existing land management and research workflows. The methodology demonstrated in the Delaware River Basin is extensible and scalable, with potential applications at national scales for the United States.
|Title||Prototyping a methodology for long-term (1680-2100) historical-to-future landscape modeling for the conterminous United States|
|Authors||Jordan Dornbierer, Steve Wika, Charles Robison, Gregory Rouze, Terry L. Sohl|
|Publication Subtype||Journal Article|
|Record Source||USGS Publications Warehouse|
|USGS Organization||Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center|
Long-term database of historical, current, and future land cover for the Delaware River Basin (1680 through 2100)
Long-term database of historical, current, and future land cover for the Delaware River Basin (1680 through 2100)The USGS's FORE-SCE model was used to produce a long-term landscape dataset for the Delaware River Basin (DRB). Using historical landscape reconstruction and scenario-based future projections, the data provided land-use and land-cover (LULC) data for the DRB from year 1680 through 2100, with future projections from 2020-2100 modeled for 7 different socioeconomic-based scenarios, and 3 climate real