Terry Sohl
Biography
Terry Sohl is a Research Physical Scientist with the U.S. Geological Survey at the USGS Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center in Sioux Falls, South Dakota. Since 1993, he has been involved in the mapping, analysis, and modeling of land-use and land-cover within USGS. Terry was one of the team members that helped develop the first 1992 National Land Cover Database (1992) and was also one of the original founders of the USGS Land Cover Trends project. Using the experience gained from mapping and analyzing current and historical land-use change, Terry led the development of the FORE-SCE (FOREcasting SCEnarios of land-use change) modeling framework, which has been used to produce scenario-based land-use and land-cover projections for the conterminous United States at high spatial and thematic resolution. Terry continues to lead land-cover modeling projects at USGS EROS, using a new, parcel-based modeling framework that models landscape change with an unprecedented combination of high spatial resolution, high thematic resolution, broad geographic coverage, representation of both anthropogenic land use and natural land cover change, and use of true land management and ownership boundaries.
Current responsibilities also include the role as Land Resources Mission Area (LRMA) representative for the USGS EarthMAP initiative. In that role, Terry serves on an interdisciplinary team of USGS researchers and managers, helping to coordinate integrated data and science activities related to EarthMAP. He also plays a lead role in coordinating the LRMA collaboration with the Water Mission Area.
More information on the work of his land-cover modeling group at USGS EROS may be found at:
https://landcover-modeling.cr.usgs.gov/
Science and Products
Moving towards EarthMAP: Establishing linkages among USGS land use, water use, runoff, and recharge models
Understanding and anticipating change in dynamic Earth systems is vital for societal adaptation and welfare. USGS possesses the multidisciplinary capabilities to anticipate Earth systems change, yet our work is often bound within a single discipline and/or Mission Area. The proposed work breaks new ground in moving USGS towards an interdisciplinary predictive modeling framework. We are...
Eyes on Earth Episode 16 – Predictive Modeling
Eyes on Earth is a podcast on remote sensing, Earth observation, land change and science, brought to you by the USGS Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center. In this episode, we learn how EROS scientists project future landscape change.
Acquiring Land-Cover Modeling Data from USGS / EROS Center
The following provides a short synopsis of current and recently completely projects using USGS EROS’ FORE-SCE model, and where applicable, links to download data. Additional project information and data will be made available as our research progresses.
Land-cover Modeling at USGS Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center
Land-use change and the resultant changes in land cover impact a wide variety of ecological processes. Projected land-cover data produced by EROS have been used for a wide variety of applications, including those listed in the left column. The following provides a partial list of published applications for modeled land-use and land-cover data.
Land-Cover Modeling Methodology - The FORE-SCE Model
Many factors determine how human beings modify the earth's landscape. Land-cover change is inherently a local event, yet broader scale socioeconomic and biophysical factors also affect how humans make decisions to use the landscape. Projecting future land cover requires modelers to account for driving forces of land-cover change operating at scales from local ("bottom-up") to global ("top-down...
Spatial Modeling of Land Use, Climate, and Environmental Consequences
USGS scientists have a long tradition of providing high-quality, consistent, and relevant land-cover data for the United States, using our archive of current and historical remote sensing data. Scientists at USGS EROS are using their experience in mapping land cover and their knowledge of land-cover change processes to temporally extend these databases beyond the dates of available remote...
Land Cover Projections
Scientists at EROS look at local and global drivers of land-use change to project how different scenarios will impact and change landscapes. Using the FOREcasting SCEnarios of Land-use Change (FORE-SCE) modeling framework provides spatially explicit projections of future land-use and land-cover change.
Land Cover Trends
Land Cover Trends was a research project focused on understanding the rates, trends, causes, and consequences of contemporary U.S. land use and land cover change. The project spanned from 1999 to 2011. The research was supported by the Climate and Land Use Change Research and Development Program of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and was a collaborative effort with the U.S. Environmental...
Building a Decision-Support Tool for Assessing the Impacts of Climate and Land Use Change on Ecological Processes
Scientists, planners, policy makers and other decision-makers in the South Central U.S. want to understand the potential impacts of changes in climate, precipitation, and land-use patterns on natural and cultural resources. Though the potential impacts of climate change can be modeled to help decision-makers plan for future conditions, these models rarely incorporate changes in land-use that...
Simulated atmospheric response to four projected land-use land-cover change scenarios for 2050 in the north-central United States
Land-use land-cover change (LULCC) has become an important topic of research for the central United States because of the extensive conversion of the natural prairie into agricultural land, especially in the northern Great Plains. As a result, shifts in the natural climate (minimum/maximum temperature, precipitation, etc.) across the north-central...
Flanagan, Paul Xavier; Mahmood, Rezaul; Sohl, Terry L.; Svoboda, Mark; Wardlow, Brian D.; Hayes, Michael; Rappin, Eric Prototyping a methodology for long-term (1680-2100) historical-to-future landscape modeling for the conterminous United States
Land system change has been identified as one of four major Earth system processes where change has passed a destabilizing threshold. A historical record of landscape change is required to understand the impacts change has had on human and natural systems, while scenarios of future landscape change are required to facilitate planning and...
Dornbierer, Jordan; Wika, Steve; Robison, Charles; Rouze, Gregory; Sohl, Terry L.
Land change monitoring, assessment, and projection
There is a pressing need to monitor and understand the rapid land change happening around the world. The U.S. Geological Survey is developing a new capability, called Land Change Monitoring, Assessment, and Projection (LCMAP), to innovate the understanding of land change. This capability is the Earth Resources Observation and Science Center's...
Rover, Jennifer; Brown, Jesslyn F.; Auch, Roger F.; Sayler, Kristi L.; Sohl, Terry L.; Tollerud, Heather J.; Xian, George Z. Disentangling the potential effects of land-use and climate change on stream conditions
Land‐use and climate change are significantly affecting stream ecosystems, yet understanding of their long‐term impacts is hindered by the few studies that have simultaneously investigated their interaction and high variability among future projections. We modeled possible effects of a suite of 2030, 2060, and 2090 land‐use and climate scenarios...
Maloney, Kelly O.; Krause, Kevin P.; Buchanan, Claire; Hay, Lauren; McCabe, Gregory J.; Smith, Zachary M.; Sohl, Terry L.; Young, John A. Lessons learned implementing an operational continuous U.S. national land change monitoring capability: The LCMAP approach
Growing demands for temporally specific information on land surface change are fueling a new generation of maps and statistics that can contribute to understanding geographic and temporal patterns of change across large regions, provide input into a wide range of environmental modeling studies, clarify the drivers of change, and provide more...
Brown, Jesslyn F.; Tollerud, Heather J.; Barber, Christopher; Zhou, Qiang; Dwyer, John L.; Vogelmann, James; Loveland, Thomas; Woodcock, Curtis; Stehman, Stephen V; Zhu, Zhe; Pengra, Bruce; Smith, Kelcy; Horton, Josephine; Xian, George Z.; Auch, Roger F.; Sohl, Terry L.; Sayler, Kristi L.; Gallant, Alisa L.; Zelenak, Daniel; Reker, Ryan R.; Rover, Jennifer R. Remote sensing as the foundation for high-resolution United States landscape projections – The Land Change Monitoring, assessment, and projection (LCMAP) initiative
The Land Change Monitoring, Assessment, and Projection (LCMAP) initiative uses temporally dense Landsat data and time series analyses to characterize landscape change in the United States from 1985 to present. LCMAP will be used to explain how past, present, and future landscape change affects society and natural systems. Here, we describe a...
Sohl, Terry L.; Dornbierer, Jordan; Wika, Steve; Robison, Charles Linking landscapes and people—Projecting the future of the Great Plains
We developed a unique set of landscape projections for the Great Plains that use real land-management parcels to represent landscape patterns at high spatial and thematic resolution.Both anthropogenic land use and natural vegetation respond in the model to projected changes in groundwater availability and climate...
Sohl, Terry L.; Dornbierer, Jordan; Wika, Steve Simulating the effects of management practices on cropland soil organic carbon changes in the Temperate Prairies Ecoregion of the United States from 1980 to 2012
Understanding the effects of management practices on soil organic carbon (SOC) is important for designing effective policies to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions in agriculture. In the Midwest United States, management practices in the croplands have been improved to increase crop production and reduce SOC loss since the 1980s. Many studies of SOC...
Li, Zhengpeng; Liu, Shuguang; Tan, Zhengxi; Sohl, Terry L.; Wu, Yiping
Grand challenges for integrated USGS science—A workshop report
Executive SummaryThe U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has a long history of advancing the traditional Earth science disciplines and identifying opportunities to integrate USGS science across disciplines to address complex societal problems. The USGS science strategy for 2007–2017 laid out key challenges in disciplinary and interdisciplinary arenas,...
Jenni, Karen E.; Goldhaber, Martin B.; Betancourt, Julio L.; Baron, Jill S.; Bristol, Sky; Cantrill, Mary; Exter, Paul E.; Focazio, Michael J.; Haines, John W.; Hay, Lauren E.; Hsu, Leslie; Labson, Victor F.; Lafferty, Kevin D.; Ludwig, K.A.; Milly, Paul C. D.; Morelli, Toni L.; Morman, Suzette A.; Nassar, Nedal T.; Newman, Timothy R.; Ostroff, Andrea C. ; Read, Jordan S.; Reed, Sasha C.; Shapiro, Carl D.; Smith, Richard A.; Sanford, Ward E.; Sohl, Terry L.; Stets, Edward G.; Terando, Adam J.; Tillitt, Donald E.; Tischler, Michael A.; Toccalino, Patricia L.; Wald, David J.; Waldrop, Mark P.; Wein, Anne; Weltzin, Jake F.; Zimmerman, Christian E. Parcels versus pixels: modeling agricultural land use across broad geographic regions using parcel-based field boundaries
Land use and land cover (LULC) change occurs at a local level within contiguous ownership and management units (parcels), yet LULC models primarily use pixel-based spatial frameworks. The few parcel-based models being used overwhelmingly focus on small geographic areas, limiting the ability to assess LULC change impacts at regional to national...
Sohl, Terry L.; Dornbierer, Jordan; Wika, Steve; Sayler, Kristi L.; Quenzer, Robert Grand challenges in understanding the interplay of climate and land changes
Half of Earth’s land surface has been altered by human activities, creating various consequences on the climate and weather systems at local to global scales, which in turn affect a myriad of land surface processes and the adaptation behaviors. This study reviews the status and major knowledge gaps in the interactions of land and atmospheric...
Liu, Shuguang; Bond-Lamberty, Ben; Boysen, Lena R.; Ford, James D.; Fox, Andrew; Gallo, Kevin; Hatfield, Jerry L.; Henebry, Geoffrey M.; Huntington, Thomas G.; Liu, Zhihua; Loveland, Thomas R.; Norby, Richard J.; Sohl, Terry L.; Steiner, Allison L.; Yuan, Wenping; Zhang, Zhao; Zhao, Shuqing A cellular automata downscaling based 1 km global land use datasets (2010–2100)
Global climate and environmental change studies require detailed land-use and land-cover(LULC) information about the past, present, and future. In this paper, we discuss a methodology for downscaling coarse-resolution (i.e., half-degree) future land use scenarios to finer (i.e., 1 km) resolutions at the global scale...
Li, Xuecao; Yu, Le; Sohl, Terry L.; Clinton, Nicholas; Li, Wenyu; Zhu, Zhiliang; Liu, Xiaoping; Gong, Peng
USGS EROS Scientists at LCMAP workshop
USGS Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center scientists Heather Tollerud, Terry Sohl, Jennifer Rover and Jon Dewitz use the LCMAP Timeseries Analysis and Plotting Tool (TAPTool) during a November 2018 workshop on Land Change Monitoring, Assessment, and Projection in Sioux Falls, SD.
FORE-SCE Land Use Model with Terry Sohl
Terry Sohl talks about the FORE-SCE Land Use model that is being used to assist a variety of groups. the model uses land cover products from the USGS and extrapolates that data to predict what areas will look like in the future, based on a variety of scenarios.
Research Grade Evaluation Offers Path to Advancement, Scientific Leadership
Scientific research, development, and operations meant to help manage Earth’s natural resources are the bread and butter of work done at the Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center.
Looking into the Future: The Art and Science of Land Use Projections
Terry Sohl is fairly unique among U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) research physical scientists at the Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center in that he spends less time looking at the past and present, and more time peering into the future.
LCMAP Projects Possibilities for Future Land Cover Change
One of the key elements of the U.S. Geological Survey’s (USGS) bold new Land Change Monitoring, Assessment, and Projection (LCMAP) initiative is its potential to project how land cover across the country may change in the future.
USGS Accurately Projects Impacts of Transforming Agricultural Landscapes
When a forest gives way to a potato field, when landscapes once teeming with wheat and barley disappear into seas of switchgrass, there are always implications.
Environmental implications. Economic ones. Land use change can affect local climate. It can alter biodiversity, even the quality of groundwater. Any number of new realities emerge when land—especially that used for agriculture—...
Peering into the Future of Agricultural Change
What would it take to produce a billion tons of biomass for fuel production?
Modeled Historical Land Use and Land Cover for the Conterminous United States
This article is part of the Fall 2016 issue of the Earth Science Matters Newsletter.
Who Will Come to Your Bird Feeder in 2075?
The distribution of birds in the United States today will probably look very different in 60 years as a result of climate, land use and land cover changes.