Skip to main content
U.S. flag

An official website of the United States government

Terry Sohl

Terry Sohl is a Research Physical Scientist with the U.S. Geological Survey at the USGS Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center in Sioux Falls, South Dakota.

Since 1993, he has been involved in the mapping, analysis, and modeling of land-use and land-cover within USGS.  Terry was one of the team members that helped develop the first 1992 National Land Cover Database (1992) and was also one of the original founders of the USGS Land Cover Trends project.  Using the experience gained from mapping and analyzing current and historical land-use change, Terry led the development of the FORE-SCE (FOREcasting SCEnarios of land-use change) modeling framework, which has been used to produce scenario-based land-use and land-cover projections for the conterminous United States at high spatial and thematic resolution.  Terry continues to lead land-cover modeling projects at USGS EROS, using a new, parcel-based modeling framework that models landscape change with an unprecedented combination of high spatial resolution, high thematic resolution, broad geographic coverage, representation of both anthropogenic land use and natural land cover change, and use of true land management and ownership boundaries.

Current responsibilities also include the role as Land Resources Mission Area (LRMA) representative for the USGS EarthMAP initiative. In that role, Terry serves on an interdisciplinary team of USGS researchers and managers, helping to coordinate integrated data and science activities related to EarthMAP.  He also plays a lead role in coordinating the LRMA collaboration with the Water Mission Area.

More information on the work of his land-cover modeling group at USGS EROS may be found at: 

https://landcover-modeling.cr.usgs.gov/

 

Science and Products

link
USGS science for a changing world logo

Moving towards EarthMAP: Establishing linkages among USGS land use, water use, runoff, and recharge models

Understanding and anticipating change in dynamic Earth systems is vital for societal adaptation and welfare. USGS possesses the multidisciplinary capabilities to anticipate Earth systems change, yet our work is often bound within a single discipline and/or Mission Area. The proposed work breaks new ground in moving USGS towards an interdisciplinary predictive modeling framework. We are initially l
By
Community for Data Integration (CDI)
link

Moving towards EarthMAP: Establishing linkages among USGS land use, water use, runoff, and recharge models

Understanding and anticipating change in dynamic Earth systems is vital for societal adaptation and welfare. USGS possesses the multidisciplinary capabilities to anticipate Earth systems change, yet our work is often bound within a single discipline and/or Mission Area. The proposed work breaks new ground in moving USGS towards an interdisciplinary predictive modeling framework. We are initially l
Learn More
link
Terry Sohl - Eyes on Earth podcast

Eyes on Earth Episode 16 – Predictive Modeling

Eyes on Earth is a podcast on remote sensing, Earth observation, land change and science, brought to you by the USGS Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center. In this episode, we learn how EROS scientists project future landscape change.

link

Eyes on Earth Episode 16 – Predictive Modeling

Eyes on Earth is a podcast on remote sensing, Earth observation, land change and science, brought to you by the USGS Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center. In this episode, we learn how EROS scientists project future landscape change.

Learn More
link
Land-Cover Modeling Results Upper Missouri After Image

Acquiring Land-Cover Modeling Data from USGS / EROS Center

The following provides a short synopsis of current and recently completely projects using USGS EROS’ FORE-SCE model, and where applicable, links to download data. Additional project information and data will be made available as our research progresses.
By
Earth Resources Observation and Science Center, Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center
link

Acquiring Land-Cover Modeling Data from USGS / EROS Center

The following provides a short synopsis of current and recently completely projects using USGS EROS’ FORE-SCE model, and where applicable, links to download data. Additional project information and data will be made available as our research progresses.
Learn More
link
Projected land-use and land-cover (LULC) classes for the A1B scenario

Land-cover Modeling at USGS Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center

Land-use change and the resultant changes in land cover impact a wide variety of ecological processes. Projected land-cover data produced by EROS have been used for a wide variety of applications, including those listed in the left column. The following provides a partial list of published applications for modeled land-use and land-cover data.
By
Ecosystems, Earth Resources Observation and Science Center, Land Change Science Program, Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center
link

Land-cover Modeling at USGS Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center

Land-use change and the resultant changes in land cover impact a wide variety of ecological processes. Projected land-cover data produced by EROS have been used for a wide variety of applications, including those listed in the left column. The following provides a partial list of published applications for modeled land-use and land-cover data.
Learn More
link
Land-Cover Modeling Methodology - The FORE-SCE Model

Land-Cover Modeling Methodology - The FORE-SCE Model

Many factors determine how human beings modify the earth's landscape. Land-cover change is inherently a local event, yet broader scale socioeconomic and biophysical factors also affect how humans make decisions to use the landscape. Projecting future land cover requires modelers to account for driving forces of land-cover change operating at scales from local ("bottom-up") to global ("top-down")...
By
Earth Resources Observation and Science Center, Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center
link

Land-Cover Modeling Methodology - The FORE-SCE Model

Many factors determine how human beings modify the earth's landscape. Land-cover change is inherently a local event, yet broader scale socioeconomic and biophysical factors also affect how humans make decisions to use the landscape. Projecting future land cover requires modelers to account for driving forces of land-cover change operating at scales from local ("bottom-up") to global ("top-down")...
Learn More
link
Land-Cover Modeling Results Upper Missouri Before Image

Spatial Modeling of Land Use, Climate, and Environmental Consequences

USGS scientists have a long tradition of providing high-quality, consistent, and relevant land-cover data for the United States, using our archive of current and historical remote sensing data. Scientists at USGS EROS are using their experience in mapping land cover and their knowledge of land-cover change processes to temporally extend these databases beyond the dates of available remote sensing...
By
Climate Research and Development Program
link

Spatial Modeling of Land Use, Climate, and Environmental Consequences

USGS scientists have a long tradition of providing high-quality, consistent, and relevant land-cover data for the United States, using our archive of current and historical remote sensing data. Scientists at USGS EROS are using their experience in mapping land cover and their knowledge of land-cover change processes to temporally extend these databases beyond the dates of available remote sensing...
Learn More
link
Illustration of land cover projection

Land Cover Projections

Scientists at EROS look at local and global drivers of land-use change to project how different scenarios will impact and change landscapes. Using the FOREcasting SCEnarios of Land-use Change (FORE-SCE) modeling framework provides spatially explicit projections of future land-use and land-cover change.
By
Earth Resources Observation and Science Center, Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center
link

Land Cover Projections

Scientists at EROS look at local and global drivers of land-use change to project how different scenarios will impact and change landscapes. Using the FOREcasting SCEnarios of Land-use Change (FORE-SCE) modeling framework provides spatially explicit projections of future land-use and land-cover change.
Learn More
link
National Land Cover Database

Land Cover Trends

Land Cover Trends was a research project focused on understanding the rates, trends, causes, and consequences of contemporary U.S. land use and land cover change. The project spanned from 1999 to 2011. The research was supported by the Climate and Land Use Change Research and Development Program of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and was a collaborative effort with the U.S. Environmental...
By
Western Geographic Science Center
link

Land Cover Trends

Land Cover Trends was a research project focused on understanding the rates, trends, causes, and consequences of contemporary U.S. land use and land cover change. The project spanned from 1999 to 2011. The research was supported by the Climate and Land Use Change Research and Development Program of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and was a collaborative effort with the U.S. Environmental...
Learn More
link
View of the Red River Canyon cut into the landscape in New Mexico

Building a Decision-Support Tool for Assessing the Impacts of Climate and Land Use Change on Ecological Processes

Scientists, planners, policy makers and other decision-makers in the South Central U.S. want to understand the potential impacts of changes in climate, precipitation, and land-use patterns on natural and cultural resources. Though the potential impacts of climate change can be modeled to help decision-makers plan for future conditions, these models rarely incorporate changes in land-use that may o
By
Climate Adaptation Science Centers, Climate Adaptation Science Center
link

Building a Decision-Support Tool for Assessing the Impacts of Climate and Land Use Change on Ecological Processes

Scientists, planners, policy makers and other decision-makers in the South Central U.S. want to understand the potential impacts of changes in climate, precipitation, and land-use patterns on natural and cultural resources. Though the potential impacts of climate change can be modeled to help decision-makers plan for future conditions, these models rarely incorporate changes in land-use that may o
Learn More
link
View of the Red River Canyon cut into the landscape in New Mexico

Building a Decision-Support Tool for Assessing the Impacts of Climate and Land Use Change on Ecological Processes

Scientists, planners, policy makers and other decision-makers in the South Central U.S. want to understand the potential impacts of changes in climate, precipitation, and land-use patterns on natural and cultural resources. Though the potential impacts of climate change can be modeled to help decision-makers plan for future conditions, these models rarely incorporate changes in land-use that may o
By
Climate Adaptation Science Centers, Climate Adaptation Science Center
link

Building a Decision-Support Tool for Assessing the Impacts of Climate and Land Use Change on Ecological Processes

Scientists, planners, policy makers and other decision-makers in the South Central U.S. want to understand the potential impacts of changes in climate, precipitation, and land-use patterns on natural and cultural resources. Though the potential impacts of climate change can be modeled to help decision-makers plan for future conditions, these models rarely incorporate changes in land-use that may o
Learn More

Long-term database of historical, current, and future land cover for the Delaware River Basin (1680 through 2100)

The USGS's FORE-SCE model was used to produce a long-term landscape dataset for the Delaware River Basin (DRB). Using historical landscape reconstruction and scenario-based future projections, the data provided land-use and land-cover (LULC) data for the DRB from year 1680 through 2100, with future projections from 2020-2100 modeled for 7 different socioeconomic-based scenarios, and 3 climate real
By
Climate Research and Development Program, Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center

The Relative Impacts of Climate and Land-use Change on Conterminous United States Bird Species from 2001 to 2075

Species distribution models often use climate data to assess contemporary and/or future ranges for animal or plant species. Land use and land cover (LULC) data are important predictor variables for determining species range, yet are rarely used when modeling future distributions. In this study, maximum entropy modeling was used to construct species distribution maps for 50 North American bird spec
By
Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center

33 high-resolution scenarios of land use and vegetation change in the Upper Missouri River Basin

A new version of USGS's FORE-SCE model was used to produce unprecedented landscape projections for the Upper Missouri River Basin region of the northern Great Plains. The projections are characterized by 1) high spatial resolution (30-meter cells), 2) high thematic resolution (29 land use and land cover classes), 3) broad spatial extent (covering approximately 516,000 square kilometers), 4) use o
By
Climate Research and Development Program, Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center

Conterminous United States Land Cover Projections - 1992 to 2100

The USGS's FORE-SCE model was used to produce land-use and land-cover (LULC) projections for the conterminous United States. The projections were originally created as part of the "LandCarbon" project, an effort to understand biological carbon sequestration potential in the United States. However, the projections are being used for a wide variety of purposes, including analyses of the ef
By
Earth Resources Observation and Science Center, Land Change Science Program, Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center

33 high-resolution scenarios of land use and vegetation change in the Prairie Potholes of the United States

A new version of USGS's FORE-SCE model was used to produce unprecedented landscape projections for four ecoregions in the Prairie Potholes region of Great Plains. The scenarios are consistent with the same scenarios modeled for the Great Plains Landscape Conservation Cooperative region. The projections are characterized by 1) high spatial resolution (30-meter cells), 2) high thematic resolution (
By
Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center

33 high-resolution scenarios of land use and vegetation change in the Great Plains Landscape Conservation Cooperative region

A new version of USGSs FORE-SCE model was used to produce unprecedented landscape projections for four ecoregions in the Great Plains (corresponding to the area represented by the Great Plains Landscape Conservation Cooperative). The projections are characterized by 1) high spatial resolution (30-meter cells), 2) high thematic resolution (29 land use and land cover classes), 3) broad spatial exten
By
Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center

Modeled Historical Land Use and Land Cover for the Conterminous United States: 1938-1992

The landscape of the conterminous United States has changed dramatically over the last 200 years, with agricultural land use, urban expansion, forestry, and other anthropogenic activities altering land cover across vast swaths of the country. While land use and land cover (LULC) models have been developed to model potential future LULC change, few efforts have focused on recreating historical land
By
Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center

Modeled 2030 land cover for the Northern Glaciated Plains ecoregion

Land use and land cover (LULC) change occurs at a local level within contiguous ownership and management units (parcels), yet LULC models primarily use pixel-based spatial frameworks. The few parcel-based models being used overwhelmingly focus on small geographic areas, limiting the ability to assess LULC change impacts at regional to national scales. We developed a modified version of the Foreca
By
Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center
USGS scientists gathered around a computer at an LCMAP workshop
link
link
Filter Total Items: 62

Simulated atmospheric response to four projected land-use land-cover change scenarios for 2050 in the north-central United States

Land-use land-cover change (LULCC) has become an important topic of research for the central United States because of the extensive conversion of the natural prairie into agricultural land, especially in the northern Great Plains. As a result, shifts in the natural climate (minimum/maximum temperature, precipitation, etc.) across the north-central United States have been observed, as noted within
By
Earth Resources Observation and Science Center, Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center

Prototyping a methodology for long-term (1680-2100) historical-to-future landscape modeling for the conterminous United States

Land system change has been identified as one of four major Earth system processes where change has passed a destabilizing threshold. A historical record of landscape change is required to understand the impacts change has had on human and natural systems, while scenarios of future landscape change are required to facilitate planning and mitigation efforts. A methodology for modeling long-term his
By
Climate Research and Development Program, Earth Resources Observation and Science Center, Land Change Science Program, Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center

Land change monitoring, assessment, and projection

There is a pressing need to monitor and understand the rapid land change happening around the world. The U.S. Geological Survey is developing a new capability, called Land Change Monitoring, Assessment, and Projection (LCMAP), to innovate the understanding of land change. This capability is the Earth Resources Observation and Science Center's foundation for an integrated U.S. Geological Survey-wid
By
Earth Resources Observation and Science Center, Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center

Disentangling the potential effects of land-use and climate change on stream conditions

Land‐use and climate change are significantly affecting stream ecosystems, yet understanding of their long‐term impacts is hindered by the few studies that have simultaneously investigated their interaction and high variability among future projections. We modeled possible effects of a suite of 2030, 2060, and 2090 land‐use and climate scenarios on the condition of 70,772 small streams in the Ches
By
Ecosystems, Climate Research and Development Program, Earth Resources Observation and Science Center, Eastern Ecological Science Center, Chesapeake Bay Activities, Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center

Lessons learned implementing an operational continuous U.S. national land change monitoring capability: The LCMAP approach

Growing demands for temporally specific information on land surface change are fueling a new generation of maps and statistics that can contribute to understanding geographic and temporal patterns of change across large regions, provide input into a wide range of environmental modeling studies, clarify the drivers of change, and provide more timely information for land managers. To meet these need
By
Earth Resources Observation and Science Center, Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center

Remote sensing as the foundation for high-resolution United States landscape projections – The Land Change Monitoring, assessment, and projection (LCMAP) initiative

The Land Change Monitoring, Assessment, and Projection (LCMAP) initiative uses temporally dense Landsat data and time series analyses to characterize landscape change in the United States from 1985 to present. LCMAP will be used to explain how past, present, and future landscape change affects society and natural systems. Here, we describe a modeling framework for producing high-resolution (spatia
By
Climate Research and Development Program, Earth Resources Observation and Science Center, Land Change Science Program, Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center

Linking landscapes and people—Projecting the future of the Great Plains

We developed a unique set of landscape projections for the Great Plains that use real land-management parcels to represent landscape patterns at high spatial and thematic resolution.Both anthropogenic land use and natural vegetation respond in the model to projected changes in groundwater availability and climate change.Thirty-three scenario combinations were modeled, facilitating landscape planni
By
Climate Research and Development Program, Earth Resources Observation and Science Center, Land Change Science Program, Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center

Simulating the effects of management practices on cropland soil organic carbon changes in the Temperate Prairies Ecoregion of the United States from 1980 to 2012

Understanding the effects of management practices on soil organic carbon (SOC) is important for designing effective policies to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions in agriculture. In the Midwest United States, management practices in the croplands have been improved to increase crop production and reduce SOC loss since the 1980s. Many studies of SOC dynamics in croplands have been performed to under
By
Earth Resources Observation and Science Center, Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center

Grand challenges for integrated USGS science—A workshop report

Executive SummaryThe U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has a long history of advancing the traditional Earth science disciplines and identifying opportunities to integrate USGS science across disciplines to address complex societal problems. The USGS science strategy for 2007–2017 laid out key challenges in disciplinary and interdisciplinary arenas, culminating in a call for increased focus on a numbe
By
Science Analytics and Synthesis (SAS), Science and Decisions Center

Parcels versus pixels: modeling agricultural land use across broad geographic regions using parcel-based field boundaries

Land use and land cover (LULC) change occurs at a local level within contiguous ownership and management units (parcels), yet LULC models primarily use pixel-based spatial frameworks. The few parcel-based models being used overwhelmingly focus on small geographic areas, limiting the ability to assess LULC change impacts at regional to national scales. We developed a modified version of the Forecas
By
Climate Research and Development Program, Earth Resources Observation and Science Center, Land Change Science Program, Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center

Grand challenges in understanding the interplay of climate and land changes

Half of Earth’s land surface has been altered by human activities, creating various consequences on the climate and weather systems at local to global scales, which in turn affect a myriad of land surface processes and the adaptation behaviors. This study reviews the status and major knowledge gaps in the interactions of land and atmospheric changes and present 11 grand challenge areas for the sci
By
Earth Resources Observation and Science Center, Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center

A cellular automata downscaling based 1 km global land use datasets (2010–2100)

Global climate and environmental change studies require detailed land-use and land-cover(LULC) information about the past, present, and future. In this paper, we discuss a methodology for downscaling coarse-resolution (i.e., half-degree) future land use scenarios to finer (i.e., 1 km) resolutions at the global scale using a grid-based spatially explicit cellular automata (CA) model. We account for
By
Earth Resources Observation and Science Center, Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center
link

Research Grade Evaluation Offers Path to Advancement, Scientific Leadership

Scientific research, development, and operations meant to help manage Earth’s natural resources are the bread and butter of work done at the Earth...

Read Article
link

Looking into the Future: The Art and Science of Land Use Projections

Terry Sohl is fairly unique among U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) research physical scientists at the Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS)...

Read Article
link

LCMAP Projects Possibilities for Future Land Cover Change

One of the key elements of the U.S. Geological Survey’s (USGS) bold new Land Change Monitoring, Assessment, and Projection (LCMAP) initiative is its...

Read Article
link

USGS Accurately Projects Impacts of Transforming Agricultural Landscapes

When a forest gives way to a potato field, when landscapes once teeming with wheat and barley disappear into seas of switchgrass, there are always...

Read Article
link

Peering into the Future of Agricultural Change

What would it take to produce a billion tons of biomass for fuel production? 

Read Article
link

Modeled Historical Land Use and Land Cover for the Conterminous United States

This article is part of the Fall 2016 issue of the Earth Science Matters Newsletter. 

Read Article
link

Who Will Come to Your Bird Feeder in 2075?

The distribution of birds in the United States today will probably look very different in 60 years as a result of climate, land use and land cover...

Read Article

Science and Products