Risk-informed levee erosion countermeasure site selection and design in the Sacramento area part 2: Probabilistic numerical simulation of bank erosion

USACE partnered with the United States Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Research Service, United States Geological Survey, and Texas A&M University to evaluate the erodibility of the river banks and levees to inform probabilistic numerical simulations using the Bank Stability and Toe Erosion Model (BSTEM). This paper, the second of two parts, addresses processing the collected data to inform inputs for probabilistic bank erosion estimates in BSTEM. Measuring the intrinsic soil properties for BSTEM is discussed in part one. Soil critical shear stress and soil erodibility coefficients were calibrated by Unified Soil Classification soil type to observed erosion on the American River. Adjustments were made in the probability density functions for these parameters to reflect field-measured variability and carry forward the reduction in error achieved during calibration. The resulting calibrated values were tested at additional sites, validating the resulting critical shear stress and soil erodibility coefficient values and probability density functions for more robust probabilistic bank erosion estimates using BSTEM.