Sensitivity of a high-elevation Rocky Mountain watershed to altered climate and CO2

We explored the hydrologic and ecological responses of a headwater mountain catchment, Loch Vale watershed, to climate change and doubling of atmospheric CO₂ scenarios using the Regional Hydro-Ecological Simulation System (RHESSys). A slight (2°C) cooling, comparable to conditions observed over the past 40 years, led to greater snowpack and slightly less runoff, evaporation, transpiration, and plant productivity. An increase of 2°C yielded the opposite response, but model output for an increase of 4°C showed dramatic changes in timing of hydrologic responses. The snowpack was reduced by 50%, and runoff and soil water increased and occurred 4–5 weeks earlier with 4°C warming. Alpine tundra photosynthetic rates responded more to warmer and wetter conditions than subalpine forest, but subalpine forest showed a greater response to doubling of atmospheric CO₂ than tundra. Even though water use efficiency increased with the double CO₂ scenario, this had little effect on basin-wide runoff because the catchment is largely unvegetated. Changes in winter and spring climate conditions were more important to hydrologic and vegetation dynamics than changes that occurred during summer.