Meagan Oldfather, Ph.D. (Former Employee)
Science and Products
Species Distribution Modeling to Evaluate Current and Future Habitat Suitability of Jaguars in the Southeastern United States
Project Overview Jaguars plays a crucial role in maintaining balance and biodiversity in ecosystems. Researchers supported by this North Central CASC project will provide models to support the conservation planning of jaguars in the Southeastern United States. These models will inform management with insights into habitat suitability under current and projected climate conditions...
Support of State Wildlife Action Plan Revisions in the North Central Region
As part of the State Wildlife Grant Fund, states are required to submit State Wildlife Action Plans (SWAPs) every 10 years detailing habitats, species, and conservation plans. However, incorporating climate change in SWAPs isn’t required and capacity to do so is limited at most state agencies, resulting in varied consideration of climate change impacts. In support of the revisions to...
Rekindling Relations: Integrating Mvskoke Indigenous Knowledge for Bio-Cultural Climate Adaptation
Project Overview A collaborative research team including the North Central CASC, University of Oklahoma, and College of the Muscogee Nation will conduct ethnographic interviews in the Mvskoke Language (Opvnvkv) documenting Mvskoke Indigenous Knowledge (IK) on several culturally significant species relevant to climate adaptation. The findings will support local management efforts by...
Landscape-Scale Climate Change Adaptation Planning for National Wildlife Refuges in the Crown of the Continent
Project Overview Climate change complicates natural resource management by altering ecosystems across management boundaries, prompting the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service to revise how it plans for the future within National Wildlife Refuges. Researchers supported by this North Central CASC project will develop climate scenarios, engage partners, and hold workshops to inform climate...
Climate Adaptation in North Central Mountain Ecosystems
Mountain ecosystems are prioritized by the North Central CASC due to the provided water resources, recreation opportunities, and endemic biodiversity. Mountain ecosystems are vulnerable to climate change due to elevation-dependent warming, loss of snowpack, reduction in physical area at higher elevations, and general sensitivity of alpine species to climate. Current climate adaptation...
Resources to inform the 2026 Colorado Climate Preparedness Roadmap: Compound hazards and associated public health implications Resources to inform the 2026 Colorado Climate Preparedness Roadmap: Compound hazards and associated public health implications
Changing environmental conditions are increasing the frequency and severity of extreme weather and environmental hazards, including heat waves, wildfires, drought, reduced water quality, and degraded air quality from ozone (O3) and fine particulate matter pollution (AghaKouchak et al., 2020; Bolinger et al., 2024; Colorado Health Institute, 2023a; Fann et al., 2015; IPCC, 2023a; Nagamoto...
Authors
Sarah E. Whipple, Meagan Ford Oldfather, Katherine A. Kurth
Drought and deluge— Opportunities for climate-change adaptation in US national parks Drought and deluge— Opportunities for climate-change adaptation in US national parks
In a changing climate, resource management depends on anticipating changes and considering uncertainties. To facilitate effective decision making on public lands, we regionally summarized the magnitude and uncertainty of projected change in management-relevant climate variables for 332 national park units across the contiguous US. Temperature, frequency of extreme precipitation events...
Authors
Meagan Ford Oldfather, Amber N. Runyon, Kyra Clark-Wolf, Wynne Emily Moss, Imtiaz Rangwala, Anthony Warren Ciocco, Aparna Bamzai-Dodson, Helen R. Sofaer, Brian W. Miller
Ecological scenarios: Embracing ecological uncertainty in an era of global change Ecological scenarios: Embracing ecological uncertainty in an era of global change
Scenarios, or plausible characterizations of the future, can help natural resource stewards plan and act under uncertainty. Current methods for developing scenarios for climate change adaptation planning are often focused on exploring uncertainties in future climate, but new approaches are needed to better represent uncertainties in ecological responses. Scenarios that characterize how...
Authors
Kyra Clark-Wolf, Wynne Emily Moss, Brian W. Miller, Imtiaz Rangwala, Helen R. Sofaer, Gregor W. Schuurman, Dawn Magness, Amy Symstad, Jonathan Coop, Dominique M. Bachelet, Joseph Barsugli, Anthony Warren Ciocco, Shelley D. Crausbay, Tyler Hoecker, Jena Lewinsohn, Meagan Ford Oldfather, Orien Richmond, Renee Rondeau, Amber C Runyon, Robin Russell, Jennifer L. Wilkening
Limited directional change in mountaintop plant communities over 19 years in western North America Limited directional change in mountaintop plant communities over 19 years in western North America
Plant communities on mountain summits are commonly long-lived, cold-adapted perennials with low dispersal ability. These characteristics in tandem with limited area to track suitable conditions make these mountain communities potentially highly vulnerable to climate change, and indicators of climate change impacts. We investigated temporal changes in plant communities on 29 arid mountain...
Authors
Kaleb Goff, Meagan Ford Oldfather, Jan Nachlinger, Brian Smithers, Michael Koontz, Catie Bishop, Jim Bishop, Mary Burke, Seema Sheth
Climate change impacts and adaptation in U.S. Rocky Mountain high-elevation ecosystems Climate change impacts and adaptation in U.S. Rocky Mountain high-elevation ecosystems
From a resource management perspective, climate change is considered to be one of the main threats to high-elevation ecosystems. However, these valuable ecosystems present unique challenges to climate change adaptation (actions in response to environmental change and its effects in a way that seeks to reduce harm) due to their rugged and remote characteristics. Within this context, we...
Authors
Meagan Ford Oldfather, Alyson Ennis, Brian W. Miller, Kyra Clark-Wolf, Imtiaz Rangwala, Hailey Robe, Caitlin Littlefield
Indigenous knowledge in climate adaptation planning: Reflections from initial efforts Indigenous knowledge in climate adaptation planning: Reflections from initial efforts
There are increasing calls to incorporate indigenous knowledge (IK) into climate adaptation planning (CAP) and related projects. However, given unique attributes of IK and the positionality of tribal communities to scientific research, several considerations are important to ensure CAP efforts with IK are ethical and effective. While such topics have been thoroughly explored conceptually
Authors
Tony W. Ciocco, Brian W. Miller, Stefan Gabriel Tangen, Shelley D. Crausbay, Meagan Ford Oldfather, Aparna Bamzai-Dodson
Divergent community trajectories with climate change across a fine-scale gradient in snow depth Divergent community trajectories with climate change across a fine-scale gradient in snow depth
Fine-scale microclimate variation due to complex topography can shape both current vegetation distributional patterns and how vegetation responds to changing climate. Topographic heterogeneity in mountains is hypothesized to mediate responses to regional climate change at the scale of metres. For alpine vegetation especially, the interplay between changing temperatures and...
Authors
Meagan Ford Oldfather, Sarah C. Elmendorf, Elisa Van Cleemput, Jonathan J. Henn, Jared D. Huxley, Caitlin T. White, Hope C. Humphries, Marko J. Spasojevic, Katharine N. Suding, Nancy C. Emery
Effects of topoclimatic complexity on the composition of woody plant communities Effects of topoclimatic complexity on the composition of woody plant communities
Topography can create substantial environmental variation at fine spatial scales. Shaped by slope, aspect, hill-position and elevation, topoclimate heterogeneity may increase ecological diversity, and act as a spatial buffer for vegetation responding to climate change. Strong links have been observed between climate heterogeneity and species diversity at broader scales, but the...
Authors
Meagan F. Oldfather, Matthew N. Britton, Prahlad D. Papper, Michael J. Koontz, Michelle M. Halbur, Celeste Dodge, Alan L. Flint, Lorraine E. Flint, David D. Ackerly
Science and Products
Species Distribution Modeling to Evaluate Current and Future Habitat Suitability of Jaguars in the Southeastern United States
Project Overview Jaguars plays a crucial role in maintaining balance and biodiversity in ecosystems. Researchers supported by this North Central CASC project will provide models to support the conservation planning of jaguars in the Southeastern United States. These models will inform management with insights into habitat suitability under current and projected climate conditions...
Support of State Wildlife Action Plan Revisions in the North Central Region
As part of the State Wildlife Grant Fund, states are required to submit State Wildlife Action Plans (SWAPs) every 10 years detailing habitats, species, and conservation plans. However, incorporating climate change in SWAPs isn’t required and capacity to do so is limited at most state agencies, resulting in varied consideration of climate change impacts. In support of the revisions to...
Rekindling Relations: Integrating Mvskoke Indigenous Knowledge for Bio-Cultural Climate Adaptation
Project Overview A collaborative research team including the North Central CASC, University of Oklahoma, and College of the Muscogee Nation will conduct ethnographic interviews in the Mvskoke Language (Opvnvkv) documenting Mvskoke Indigenous Knowledge (IK) on several culturally significant species relevant to climate adaptation. The findings will support local management efforts by...
Landscape-Scale Climate Change Adaptation Planning for National Wildlife Refuges in the Crown of the Continent
Project Overview Climate change complicates natural resource management by altering ecosystems across management boundaries, prompting the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service to revise how it plans for the future within National Wildlife Refuges. Researchers supported by this North Central CASC project will develop climate scenarios, engage partners, and hold workshops to inform climate...
Climate Adaptation in North Central Mountain Ecosystems
Mountain ecosystems are prioritized by the North Central CASC due to the provided water resources, recreation opportunities, and endemic biodiversity. Mountain ecosystems are vulnerable to climate change due to elevation-dependent warming, loss of snowpack, reduction in physical area at higher elevations, and general sensitivity of alpine species to climate. Current climate adaptation...
Resources to inform the 2026 Colorado Climate Preparedness Roadmap: Compound hazards and associated public health implications Resources to inform the 2026 Colorado Climate Preparedness Roadmap: Compound hazards and associated public health implications
Changing environmental conditions are increasing the frequency and severity of extreme weather and environmental hazards, including heat waves, wildfires, drought, reduced water quality, and degraded air quality from ozone (O3) and fine particulate matter pollution (AghaKouchak et al., 2020; Bolinger et al., 2024; Colorado Health Institute, 2023a; Fann et al., 2015; IPCC, 2023a; Nagamoto...
Authors
Sarah E. Whipple, Meagan Ford Oldfather, Katherine A. Kurth
Drought and deluge— Opportunities for climate-change adaptation in US national parks Drought and deluge— Opportunities for climate-change adaptation in US national parks
In a changing climate, resource management depends on anticipating changes and considering uncertainties. To facilitate effective decision making on public lands, we regionally summarized the magnitude and uncertainty of projected change in management-relevant climate variables for 332 national park units across the contiguous US. Temperature, frequency of extreme precipitation events...
Authors
Meagan Ford Oldfather, Amber N. Runyon, Kyra Clark-Wolf, Wynne Emily Moss, Imtiaz Rangwala, Anthony Warren Ciocco, Aparna Bamzai-Dodson, Helen R. Sofaer, Brian W. Miller
Ecological scenarios: Embracing ecological uncertainty in an era of global change Ecological scenarios: Embracing ecological uncertainty in an era of global change
Scenarios, or plausible characterizations of the future, can help natural resource stewards plan and act under uncertainty. Current methods for developing scenarios for climate change adaptation planning are often focused on exploring uncertainties in future climate, but new approaches are needed to better represent uncertainties in ecological responses. Scenarios that characterize how...
Authors
Kyra Clark-Wolf, Wynne Emily Moss, Brian W. Miller, Imtiaz Rangwala, Helen R. Sofaer, Gregor W. Schuurman, Dawn Magness, Amy Symstad, Jonathan Coop, Dominique M. Bachelet, Joseph Barsugli, Anthony Warren Ciocco, Shelley D. Crausbay, Tyler Hoecker, Jena Lewinsohn, Meagan Ford Oldfather, Orien Richmond, Renee Rondeau, Amber C Runyon, Robin Russell, Jennifer L. Wilkening
Limited directional change in mountaintop plant communities over 19 years in western North America Limited directional change in mountaintop plant communities over 19 years in western North America
Plant communities on mountain summits are commonly long-lived, cold-adapted perennials with low dispersal ability. These characteristics in tandem with limited area to track suitable conditions make these mountain communities potentially highly vulnerable to climate change, and indicators of climate change impacts. We investigated temporal changes in plant communities on 29 arid mountain...
Authors
Kaleb Goff, Meagan Ford Oldfather, Jan Nachlinger, Brian Smithers, Michael Koontz, Catie Bishop, Jim Bishop, Mary Burke, Seema Sheth
Climate change impacts and adaptation in U.S. Rocky Mountain high-elevation ecosystems Climate change impacts and adaptation in U.S. Rocky Mountain high-elevation ecosystems
From a resource management perspective, climate change is considered to be one of the main threats to high-elevation ecosystems. However, these valuable ecosystems present unique challenges to climate change adaptation (actions in response to environmental change and its effects in a way that seeks to reduce harm) due to their rugged and remote characteristics. Within this context, we...
Authors
Meagan Ford Oldfather, Alyson Ennis, Brian W. Miller, Kyra Clark-Wolf, Imtiaz Rangwala, Hailey Robe, Caitlin Littlefield
Indigenous knowledge in climate adaptation planning: Reflections from initial efforts Indigenous knowledge in climate adaptation planning: Reflections from initial efforts
There are increasing calls to incorporate indigenous knowledge (IK) into climate adaptation planning (CAP) and related projects. However, given unique attributes of IK and the positionality of tribal communities to scientific research, several considerations are important to ensure CAP efforts with IK are ethical and effective. While such topics have been thoroughly explored conceptually
Authors
Tony W. Ciocco, Brian W. Miller, Stefan Gabriel Tangen, Shelley D. Crausbay, Meagan Ford Oldfather, Aparna Bamzai-Dodson
Divergent community trajectories with climate change across a fine-scale gradient in snow depth Divergent community trajectories with climate change across a fine-scale gradient in snow depth
Fine-scale microclimate variation due to complex topography can shape both current vegetation distributional patterns and how vegetation responds to changing climate. Topographic heterogeneity in mountains is hypothesized to mediate responses to regional climate change at the scale of metres. For alpine vegetation especially, the interplay between changing temperatures and...
Authors
Meagan Ford Oldfather, Sarah C. Elmendorf, Elisa Van Cleemput, Jonathan J. Henn, Jared D. Huxley, Caitlin T. White, Hope C. Humphries, Marko J. Spasojevic, Katharine N. Suding, Nancy C. Emery
Effects of topoclimatic complexity on the composition of woody plant communities Effects of topoclimatic complexity on the composition of woody plant communities
Topography can create substantial environmental variation at fine spatial scales. Shaped by slope, aspect, hill-position and elevation, topoclimate heterogeneity may increase ecological diversity, and act as a spatial buffer for vegetation responding to climate change. Strong links have been observed between climate heterogeneity and species diversity at broader scales, but the...
Authors
Meagan F. Oldfather, Matthew N. Britton, Prahlad D. Papper, Michael J. Koontz, Michelle M. Halbur, Celeste Dodge, Alan L. Flint, Lorraine E. Flint, David D. Ackerly