Nicolas Luco
Nico is a Research Civil Engineer in the Earthquake Hazards Program.
Science and Products
USGS National Seismic Hazard Model User-Needs Workshop
The National Seismic Hazard Model Project (NSHMP) will be summarizing the 2023 National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) and presenting a preliminary future vision for the 2029 NSHM release. Day 1 will consist primarily of presentations as well as discussion and questions, and Day 2 will be focused on user participation.
2025 PRVI NSHM Update & Beyond Workshop
The National Seismic Hazard Model Project (NSHMP) will be presenting preliminary results of the 2025 Puerto Rico and U.S. Virgin Islands NSHM Update at this public workshop. On Day 1 we will focus on the 2025 PRVI update and on Day 2 we will present current data collection activities. These presentations will be technical but we encourage participation from users and stakeholders.
Operational Earthquake Forecasting – Implementing a Real-Time System for California
It is well know that every earthquake can spawn others (e.g., as aftershocks), and that such triggered events can be large and damaging, as recently demonstrated by L’Aquila, Italy and Christchurch, New Zealand earthquakes. In spite of being an explicit USGS strategic-action priority (http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2012/1088; page 32), the USGS currently lacks an automated system with which to...
Gridded earthquake ground motions for the 2023 ASCE/SEI 41 Standard outside of the conterminous United States Gridded earthquake ground motions for the 2023 ASCE/SEI 41 Standard outside of the conterminous United States
For evaluating and retrofitting existing buildings to resist earthquakes, the 2023 ASCE/SEI 41 Standard provides Basic Safety Earthquake spectral response accelerations at four levels (BSE-1N, BSE-2N, BSE-1E, and BSE-2E). This data release covers BSE-1E and BSE-2E spectral response accelerations for sites outside of the conterminous United States. For sites in the conterminous U.S., BSE...
Maps of earthquake ground motions for the 2009 NEHRP Recommended Seismic Provisions and the 2010 ASCE/SEI 7 Standard Maps of earthquake ground motions for the 2009 NEHRP Recommended Seismic Provisions and the 2010 ASCE/SEI 7 Standard
For designing buildings and other structures to safely resist earthquakes, the 2009 National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP) Recommended Seismic Provisions and the 2010 American Society of Civil Engineers, Structural Engineering Institute (ASCE/SEI) 7 Standard contain maps of Risk-Targeted Maximum Considered Earthquake (MCER) spectral response accelerations, Maximum...
Data Release for the 2023 U.S. 50-State National Seismic Hazard Model - Overview Data Release for the 2023 U.S. 50-State National Seismic Hazard Model - Overview
This data release contains data sets associated with the 2023 50-State National Seismic Hazard Model Update. The 2023 50-State National Seimsic Hazard Model (NSHM) Update includes an update to the NSHMs for the conterminous U.S (CONUS, last updated in 2018), Alaska (AK, last updated in 2007), and Hawaii (last updated in 2001). Data sets include inputs like seismicity catalogs used as...
Gridded earthquake ground motions for the 2023 AASHTO Design Specifications Gridded earthquake ground motions for the 2023 AASHTO Design Specifications
For designing bridges to safely resist earthquakes, the 2023 editions of the AASHTO (1) Guide Specifications for LRFD Seismic Bridge Design, (2) LRFD Bridge Design Specifications, and (3) Guide Specifications for Seismic Isolation Design provide risk-targeted design ground motions via this data release and the corresponding USGS Seismic Design Web Services (listed below). The web...
Seismic Hazard, Risk, and Design for South America Seismic Hazard, Risk, and Design for South America
These data were calculated to estimate seismic hazard, risk, and design across South America using the latest data, models, and methods. The input data to the model, as well as the output data are available here. The input data includes a seismicity catalog, seismicity rate models, evaluation of earthquake sizes, fault geometry and rate parameters, and ground-motion models. Output data...
Shakemap earthquake scenario: Building Seismic Safety Council 2014 Event Set (BSSC2014) Shakemap earthquake scenario: Building Seismic Safety Council 2014 Event Set (BSSC2014)
This is a catalog of earthquake scenarios, represented as ShakeMaps. A ShakeMap is a USGS product that facilitates communication of earthquake effects by portraying a map of the severity of shaking. Maps of shaking severity are provided in terms of macroseismic intensity, peak ground acceleration, peak ground velocity, and spectral accelerations (at 0.3, 1.0 and 3 sec oscillator periods)...
Seismic-hazard maps for the conterminous United States, 2014 Seismic-hazard maps for the conterminous United States, 2014
The maps presented here provide an update to the 2008 data contained in U.S Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Map 3195 (http://pubs.usgs.gov/sim/3195/).Probabilistic seismic-hazard maps were prepared for the conterminous United States for 2014 portraying peak horizontal acceleration and horizontal spectral response acceleration for 0.2- and 1.0-second periods with probabilities...
Seismic-Hazard Maps for the Conterminous United States, 2008 Seismic-Hazard Maps for the Conterminous United States, 2008
Probabilistic seismic-hazard maps were prepared for the conterminous United States portraying peak horizontal acceleration and horizontal spectral response acceleration for 0.2- and 1.0-second periods with probabilities of exceedance of 10 percent in 50 years and 2 percent in 50 years. All of the maps were prepared by combining the hazard derived from spatially smoothed historic...
Filter Total Items: 79
A scientific vision and roadmap for earthquake rupture forecast developments, a USGS perspective A scientific vision and roadmap for earthquake rupture forecast developments, a USGS perspective
We articulate a scientific vision and roadmap for the development of improved Earthquake Rupture Forecast models, which are one of the two main modeling components used in modern seismic hazard and risk analysis. One primary future objective is to provide fully time-dependent models that include both elastic rebound and spatiotemporal clustering nationwide, which is particularly...
Authors
Edward H. Field, Alexandra Elise Hatem, Bruce E. Shaw, Morgan T. Page, P. Martin Mai, Kevin Ross Milner, Andrea L. Llenos, Andrew J. Michael, Frederick Pollitz, Jessica Ann Thompson Jobe, Thomas E. Parsons, Olaf Zielke, David R. Shelly, Alice-Agnes Gabriel, Devin McPhillips, Richard W. Briggs, Elizabeth S. Cochran, Nico Luco, Mark D. Petersen, Peter M. Powers, Justin Rubinstein, Allison Shumway, Nicholas van der Elst, Yuehua Zeng, Christopher DuRoss, Jason M. Altekruse
Engineering and risk research—A strategic vision for extending USGS earthquake science to risk assessment and mitigation Engineering and risk research—A strategic vision for extending USGS earthquake science to risk assessment and mitigation
As a part of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Natural Hazards Mission Area, the Engineering and Risk Project (ERP) of the Geologic Hazards Science Center conducts civil engineering research to extend natural hazards science to risk assessments. The ERP includes predominantly, but not exclusively, staff funded by the USGS Earthquake Hazards Program. A major focus of the ERP is to deliver
Authors
Kishor S. Jaiswal, Sanaz Rezaeian, Nico Luco, N. Simon Kwong, Andrew James Makdisi, H. Benjamin Mason, Robert E. Chase, Zachary Alan Kortum
Simulating human behavior under earthquake early warning Simulating human behavior under earthquake early warning
Earthquakes are a rapid-onset hazard where advance planning and learning plays a key role in mitigating injuries and death to individuals. Recent advances in earthquake detection have resulted in the development of earthquake early warning (EEW) systems. These systems can provide advance warning to predetermined geographic regions that an earthquake is in progress, which may result in...
Authors
Matthew Wood, Sara K. McBride, Xilei Zhao, Dare Baldwin, Elizabeth S. Cochran, Xiaojian Zhang, Nico Luco, Ruggiero Lovreglio, Tom Cova
Effective site coefficients for the 2024 International Building Code (IBC) Effective site coefficients for the 2024 International Building Code (IBC)
The U.S. National Seismic Hazard Models (NSHMs), developed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), have long been the scientific foundation of seismic design guidelines and have been used to compute design ground motions for construction of new buildings and retrofit of existing buildings in the United States and its territories. The 2018 NSHM is adopted by the 2024 International Building...
Authors
Sanaz Rezaeian, Nico Luco, Andrew James Makdisi, Henry Mason
U.S. Geological Survey Earthquake Hazards Program decadal science strategy, 2024–33 U.S. Geological Survey Earthquake Hazards Program decadal science strategy, 2024–33
Executive Summary Earthquakes represent one of our Nation’s most significant and costly natural hazards, with estimated annual loses from earthquakes close to $15 billion in 2023. Over the past two centuries, 37 U.S. States have experienced an earthquake exceeding a magnitude of 5, and 50 percent of States have a significant potential for future damaging shaking; these statistics speak...
Authors
Gavin P. Hayes, Annemarie S. Baltay Sundstrom, William D. Barnhart, Michael L. Blanpied, Lindsay A. Davis, Paul S. Earle, Edward H. Field, Jill M. Franks, Douglas D. Given, Ryan D. Gold, Christine A Goulet, Michelle M. Guy, Jeanne L. Hardebeck, Nico Luco, Frederick Pollitz, Adam T. Ringler, Katherine M. Scharer, Steven Sobieszczyk, Valerie I. Thomas, Cecily J. Wolfe
Quantitative risk of earthquake disruption to global copper and rhenium supply Quantitative risk of earthquake disruption to global copper and rhenium supply
Earthquakes have the potential to substantially affect mining operations, potentially leading to supply chain disruptions and adversely affecting the global economy. This study explores the quantification of earthquake risk to copper and rhenium commodity supply by examining the spatial concentration of high earthquake hazard areas and the commodity-specific mining, smelting, and...
Authors
Kishor S. Jaiswal, Nico Luco, Emily K. Schnebele, Nedal T. Nassar, Donya Otarod
Python Source Code for USGS Risk-Targeted Ground Motion Calculator Python Source Code for USGS Risk-Targeted Ground Motion Calculator
Python library and associate web services implementation that allows users to compute collapse risk-targeted design ground motions in accordance with the minimum design requirements of two commonly-used U.S. seismic provisions: the American Society of Civil Engineers "Minimum Design Loads and Associated Criteria for Buildings and Other Structures" (ASCE7) and American Association of...
Risk-Targeted Ground Motion Calculator Risk-Targeted Ground Motion Calculator
This web application can be used to calculate risk-targeted ground motion values in accordance with “Method 2” of 2010 ASCE 7 Standard Section 21.2.1.2.
New USGS map shows where damaging earthquakes are most likely to occur in US New USGS map shows where damaging earthquakes are most likely to occur in US
USGS scientists and our partners recently revealed the latest National Seismic Hazard Model, showing that nearly 75% of the United States could experience a damaging earthquake, emphasizing seismic hazards span a significant part of the country.
Science and Products
USGS National Seismic Hazard Model User-Needs Workshop
The National Seismic Hazard Model Project (NSHMP) will be summarizing the 2023 National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) and presenting a preliminary future vision for the 2029 NSHM release. Day 1 will consist primarily of presentations as well as discussion and questions, and Day 2 will be focused on user participation.
2025 PRVI NSHM Update & Beyond Workshop
The National Seismic Hazard Model Project (NSHMP) will be presenting preliminary results of the 2025 Puerto Rico and U.S. Virgin Islands NSHM Update at this public workshop. On Day 1 we will focus on the 2025 PRVI update and on Day 2 we will present current data collection activities. These presentations will be technical but we encourage participation from users and stakeholders.
Operational Earthquake Forecasting – Implementing a Real-Time System for California
It is well know that every earthquake can spawn others (e.g., as aftershocks), and that such triggered events can be large and damaging, as recently demonstrated by L’Aquila, Italy and Christchurch, New Zealand earthquakes. In spite of being an explicit USGS strategic-action priority (http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2012/1088; page 32), the USGS currently lacks an automated system with which to...
Gridded earthquake ground motions for the 2023 ASCE/SEI 41 Standard outside of the conterminous United States Gridded earthquake ground motions for the 2023 ASCE/SEI 41 Standard outside of the conterminous United States
For evaluating and retrofitting existing buildings to resist earthquakes, the 2023 ASCE/SEI 41 Standard provides Basic Safety Earthquake spectral response accelerations at four levels (BSE-1N, BSE-2N, BSE-1E, and BSE-2E). This data release covers BSE-1E and BSE-2E spectral response accelerations for sites outside of the conterminous United States. For sites in the conterminous U.S., BSE...
Maps of earthquake ground motions for the 2009 NEHRP Recommended Seismic Provisions and the 2010 ASCE/SEI 7 Standard Maps of earthquake ground motions for the 2009 NEHRP Recommended Seismic Provisions and the 2010 ASCE/SEI 7 Standard
For designing buildings and other structures to safely resist earthquakes, the 2009 National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP) Recommended Seismic Provisions and the 2010 American Society of Civil Engineers, Structural Engineering Institute (ASCE/SEI) 7 Standard contain maps of Risk-Targeted Maximum Considered Earthquake (MCER) spectral response accelerations, Maximum...
Data Release for the 2023 U.S. 50-State National Seismic Hazard Model - Overview Data Release for the 2023 U.S. 50-State National Seismic Hazard Model - Overview
This data release contains data sets associated with the 2023 50-State National Seismic Hazard Model Update. The 2023 50-State National Seimsic Hazard Model (NSHM) Update includes an update to the NSHMs for the conterminous U.S (CONUS, last updated in 2018), Alaska (AK, last updated in 2007), and Hawaii (last updated in 2001). Data sets include inputs like seismicity catalogs used as...
Gridded earthquake ground motions for the 2023 AASHTO Design Specifications Gridded earthquake ground motions for the 2023 AASHTO Design Specifications
For designing bridges to safely resist earthquakes, the 2023 editions of the AASHTO (1) Guide Specifications for LRFD Seismic Bridge Design, (2) LRFD Bridge Design Specifications, and (3) Guide Specifications for Seismic Isolation Design provide risk-targeted design ground motions via this data release and the corresponding USGS Seismic Design Web Services (listed below). The web...
Seismic Hazard, Risk, and Design for South America Seismic Hazard, Risk, and Design for South America
These data were calculated to estimate seismic hazard, risk, and design across South America using the latest data, models, and methods. The input data to the model, as well as the output data are available here. The input data includes a seismicity catalog, seismicity rate models, evaluation of earthquake sizes, fault geometry and rate parameters, and ground-motion models. Output data...
Shakemap earthquake scenario: Building Seismic Safety Council 2014 Event Set (BSSC2014) Shakemap earthquake scenario: Building Seismic Safety Council 2014 Event Set (BSSC2014)
This is a catalog of earthquake scenarios, represented as ShakeMaps. A ShakeMap is a USGS product that facilitates communication of earthquake effects by portraying a map of the severity of shaking. Maps of shaking severity are provided in terms of macroseismic intensity, peak ground acceleration, peak ground velocity, and spectral accelerations (at 0.3, 1.0 and 3 sec oscillator periods)...
Seismic-hazard maps for the conterminous United States, 2014 Seismic-hazard maps for the conterminous United States, 2014
The maps presented here provide an update to the 2008 data contained in U.S Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Map 3195 (http://pubs.usgs.gov/sim/3195/).Probabilistic seismic-hazard maps were prepared for the conterminous United States for 2014 portraying peak horizontal acceleration and horizontal spectral response acceleration for 0.2- and 1.0-second periods with probabilities...
Seismic-Hazard Maps for the Conterminous United States, 2008 Seismic-Hazard Maps for the Conterminous United States, 2008
Probabilistic seismic-hazard maps were prepared for the conterminous United States portraying peak horizontal acceleration and horizontal spectral response acceleration for 0.2- and 1.0-second periods with probabilities of exceedance of 10 percent in 50 years and 2 percent in 50 years. All of the maps were prepared by combining the hazard derived from spatially smoothed historic...
Filter Total Items: 79
A scientific vision and roadmap for earthquake rupture forecast developments, a USGS perspective A scientific vision and roadmap for earthquake rupture forecast developments, a USGS perspective
We articulate a scientific vision and roadmap for the development of improved Earthquake Rupture Forecast models, which are one of the two main modeling components used in modern seismic hazard and risk analysis. One primary future objective is to provide fully time-dependent models that include both elastic rebound and spatiotemporal clustering nationwide, which is particularly...
Authors
Edward H. Field, Alexandra Elise Hatem, Bruce E. Shaw, Morgan T. Page, P. Martin Mai, Kevin Ross Milner, Andrea L. Llenos, Andrew J. Michael, Frederick Pollitz, Jessica Ann Thompson Jobe, Thomas E. Parsons, Olaf Zielke, David R. Shelly, Alice-Agnes Gabriel, Devin McPhillips, Richard W. Briggs, Elizabeth S. Cochran, Nico Luco, Mark D. Petersen, Peter M. Powers, Justin Rubinstein, Allison Shumway, Nicholas van der Elst, Yuehua Zeng, Christopher DuRoss, Jason M. Altekruse
Engineering and risk research—A strategic vision for extending USGS earthquake science to risk assessment and mitigation Engineering and risk research—A strategic vision for extending USGS earthquake science to risk assessment and mitigation
As a part of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Natural Hazards Mission Area, the Engineering and Risk Project (ERP) of the Geologic Hazards Science Center conducts civil engineering research to extend natural hazards science to risk assessments. The ERP includes predominantly, but not exclusively, staff funded by the USGS Earthquake Hazards Program. A major focus of the ERP is to deliver
Authors
Kishor S. Jaiswal, Sanaz Rezaeian, Nico Luco, N. Simon Kwong, Andrew James Makdisi, H. Benjamin Mason, Robert E. Chase, Zachary Alan Kortum
Simulating human behavior under earthquake early warning Simulating human behavior under earthquake early warning
Earthquakes are a rapid-onset hazard where advance planning and learning plays a key role in mitigating injuries and death to individuals. Recent advances in earthquake detection have resulted in the development of earthquake early warning (EEW) systems. These systems can provide advance warning to predetermined geographic regions that an earthquake is in progress, which may result in...
Authors
Matthew Wood, Sara K. McBride, Xilei Zhao, Dare Baldwin, Elizabeth S. Cochran, Xiaojian Zhang, Nico Luco, Ruggiero Lovreglio, Tom Cova
Effective site coefficients for the 2024 International Building Code (IBC) Effective site coefficients for the 2024 International Building Code (IBC)
The U.S. National Seismic Hazard Models (NSHMs), developed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), have long been the scientific foundation of seismic design guidelines and have been used to compute design ground motions for construction of new buildings and retrofit of existing buildings in the United States and its territories. The 2018 NSHM is adopted by the 2024 International Building...
Authors
Sanaz Rezaeian, Nico Luco, Andrew James Makdisi, Henry Mason
U.S. Geological Survey Earthquake Hazards Program decadal science strategy, 2024–33 U.S. Geological Survey Earthquake Hazards Program decadal science strategy, 2024–33
Executive Summary Earthquakes represent one of our Nation’s most significant and costly natural hazards, with estimated annual loses from earthquakes close to $15 billion in 2023. Over the past two centuries, 37 U.S. States have experienced an earthquake exceeding a magnitude of 5, and 50 percent of States have a significant potential for future damaging shaking; these statistics speak...
Authors
Gavin P. Hayes, Annemarie S. Baltay Sundstrom, William D. Barnhart, Michael L. Blanpied, Lindsay A. Davis, Paul S. Earle, Edward H. Field, Jill M. Franks, Douglas D. Given, Ryan D. Gold, Christine A Goulet, Michelle M. Guy, Jeanne L. Hardebeck, Nico Luco, Frederick Pollitz, Adam T. Ringler, Katherine M. Scharer, Steven Sobieszczyk, Valerie I. Thomas, Cecily J. Wolfe
Quantitative risk of earthquake disruption to global copper and rhenium supply Quantitative risk of earthquake disruption to global copper and rhenium supply
Earthquakes have the potential to substantially affect mining operations, potentially leading to supply chain disruptions and adversely affecting the global economy. This study explores the quantification of earthquake risk to copper and rhenium commodity supply by examining the spatial concentration of high earthquake hazard areas and the commodity-specific mining, smelting, and...
Authors
Kishor S. Jaiswal, Nico Luco, Emily K. Schnebele, Nedal T. Nassar, Donya Otarod
Python Source Code for USGS Risk-Targeted Ground Motion Calculator Python Source Code for USGS Risk-Targeted Ground Motion Calculator
Python library and associate web services implementation that allows users to compute collapse risk-targeted design ground motions in accordance with the minimum design requirements of two commonly-used U.S. seismic provisions: the American Society of Civil Engineers "Minimum Design Loads and Associated Criteria for Buildings and Other Structures" (ASCE7) and American Association of...
Risk-Targeted Ground Motion Calculator Risk-Targeted Ground Motion Calculator
This web application can be used to calculate risk-targeted ground motion values in accordance with “Method 2” of 2010 ASCE 7 Standard Section 21.2.1.2.
New USGS map shows where damaging earthquakes are most likely to occur in US New USGS map shows where damaging earthquakes are most likely to occur in US
USGS scientists and our partners recently revealed the latest National Seismic Hazard Model, showing that nearly 75% of the United States could experience a damaging earthquake, emphasizing seismic hazards span a significant part of the country.