Toni Lyn Morelli, Ph.D.
Toni Lyn Morelli is a Research Ecologist at the Northeast Climate Adaptation Science Center, where she uses field studies, ecological modeling, genetics, and translational ecology to help resource managers conserve species in the face of global change.
Toni Lyn grew up near Detroit and received a B.S. in Zoology from Michigan State University. For her Ph.D. at Stony Brook University, she studied lemur behavior, ecology, and genetics in Madagascar. After her Ph.D., Toni Lyn worked as a postdoctoral fellow at UC Berkeley to understand how climate change had affected small mammals and montane meadows over the last century. She has also worked for the U.S. Forest Service, both as a research ecologist at the Pacific Southwest Research Station and as the Technical Advisor to the Democratic Republic of Congo.
Toni Lyn uses translational ecology, species distribution modeling, occupancy modeling, geospatial analysis, population and landscape genetics techniques, and decision analysis to facilitate natural resource management and habitat and species conservation in the face of climate and land use change and invasive species. Current projects include studying the impacts of climate change in boreal ecosystems; helping the National Park Service update its taxonomy and analyze citizen science data; organizing a continent-wide network on Regional Invasive Species and Climate Change (RISCC) Management; and a continued focus on operationalizing the concept of climate change refugia.
Education and Certifications
Ph.D., Stony Brook University
B.S. in Zoology, Michigan State University
Affiliations and Memberships*
Member of the USGS EMA DEIA Leadership Council, 2022
Member of the NECASC Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion Committee, 2021-2022
Leader of the USGS CASC DEIA Recruitment and Retention Working Group, 2021-2022
Member of the USGS CASC Diversity, Equity, Inclusion and Accessibility (DEIA) Leadership Council, 2020-2022
Co-Leader of the CASC Inclusive Mentoring Working Group, 2021-2022
Associate Editor for Conservation Science & Practice, 2018-2022; recognized as 1 of 2 top CSP AEs
Member of the American Geophysical Union
Member of The Ecological Society of America
Member of the Society of Conservation Biology
Member of The Wildlife Society
Honors and Awards
Association of Fish & Wildlife Agencies Climate Adaptation Leadership Award for Broad Participation (to NE Regional Invasive Species and Climate Change (RISCC) Management Network)
University of Massachusetts Department of Environmental Conservation (ECo) Inaugural Diversity, Equity, Inclusion, and Justice Faculty Award, 2021
USFWS Species Support Partnership (NE Region) Research Grant, 2021-2023
USGS Natural Resources Preservation Program (NE Region) Research Grant, 2019-21
USGS Ecosystems Mission Area Invasive Species Program Research Grant, 2020-2022
National Climate Adaptation Science Center Research Grant (co-I), 2020-2022
Southwest Climate Adaptation Science Center Research Grant, 2019-2020
USGS-NPS Natural Resource Preservation Partnership, 2019-2020
Second Century Stewardship Fellowship 2018 (Postdoctoral Supervisee)
Community for Data Integration, USGS, 2017 (Co-PI)
Community for Data Integration, USGS, 2018 (Co-PI)
National Fish, Wildlife, and Plants 2017 Climate Adaptation Leadership Award for Natural Resources (awarded to the Massachusetts Wildlife Climate Action Tool Partnership)
YES Internship Awards (x2), USGS, 2017
USGS STAR Award, 2016
National Park Service Grant, Bioblitz Analysis, 2016
Science and Products
Filter Total Items: 20
Filter Total Items: 80
Women in wildlife science: Building equity, diversity, and inclusion Women in wildlife science: Building equity, diversity, and inclusion
No abstract available.
Authors
Toni Lyn Morelli, Jahiya Clark
A Great Escape: Resource availability and density-dependence shape population dynamics along trailing range edges A Great Escape: Resource availability and density-dependence shape population dynamics along trailing range edges
Populations along geographical range limits are often exposed to unsuitable climate and low resource availability relative to core populations. As such, there has been a renewed focus on understanding the factors that determine range limits to better predict how species will respond to global change. Using recent theory on range limits and classical understanding of density dependence...
Authors
Alexej Sirén, Marketa Zimova, Chris Sutherland, John T. Finn, Jillian R. Kilborn, Rachel M. Cliche, Leighlan S. Prout, L. Scott Mills, Toni Lyn Morelli
Climate change and the global redistribution of biodiversity: Substantial variation in empirical support for expected range shifts Climate change and the global redistribution of biodiversity: Substantial variation in empirical support for expected range shifts
Background Among the most widely predicted climate change-related impacts to biodiversity are geographic range shifts, whereby species shift their spatial distribution to track their climate niches. A series of commonly articulated hypotheses have emerged in the scientific literature suggesting species are expected to shift their distributions to higher latitudes, greater elevations, and...
Authors
Madeleine A. Rubenstein, Sarah R. Weiskopf, Romain Bertrand, Shawn Carter, Lise Comte, Mitchell J. Eaton, Ciara G. Johnson, Jonathan Lenoir, Abigail Lynch, Brian W. Miller, Toni Lyn Morelli, Mari Angel Rodriguez, Adam Terando, Laura Thompson
Climate change and maple syrup: Producer observations, perceptions, knowledge, and adaptation strategies Climate change and maple syrup: Producer observations, perceptions, knowledge, and adaptation strategies
Introduction: Climate change is impacting forest-based agricultural systems with implications for producer decision-making and livelihoods. This article presents a case study on the observations, perceptions, knowledge, and adaptation strategies of maple syrup producers in the United States to climate change. Methods: We carried out two semi-structured surveys with maple producers on: (1...
Authors
Selena Ahmed, David A. Lutz, T Joshua Rapp, Ryan H. Huish, Boris Dufour, Autumn Brunelle, Toni Lyn Morelli, Kristina A. Stinson, Teresa Warne
Lessons learned in knowledge co-production for climate-smart decision-making Lessons learned in knowledge co-production for climate-smart decision-making
Knowledge co-production, a process that involves both creators and users of information in knowledge generation, is growing in popularity in the conservation and ecology fields. While examples of successful co-production are becoming more common, many barriers and challenges remain in this work. Here, we reflect on our experiences in knowledge co-production from three recent case studies...
Authors
Alyssa Rosemartin, Theresa Crimmins, Katherine L. Gerst, Erin E. Posthumus, Aaron R. Ramirez, Cynthia S. Wallace, Toni Lyn Morelli
Analysis of provisioning ecosystem services and perceptions of climate change for indigenous communities in the Western Himalayan Gurez Valley, Pakistan Analysis of provisioning ecosystem services and perceptions of climate change for indigenous communities in the Western Himalayan Gurez Valley, Pakistan
Climate change is a significant threat to people living in mountainous regions. It is essential to understand how montane communities currently depend especially on the provisioning ecosystem services (ES) and the ways in which climate change will impact these services, so that people can develop relevant adaptation strategies. The ES in the Gurez Valley, in the Western Himalayas of...
Authors
Uzma Saeed, Muhammad Arshad, Shakeel Hayat, Toni Lyn Morelli, Muhammad Ali Nawaz
Global environmental changes more frequently offset than intensify detrimental effects of biological invasions Global environmental changes more frequently offset than intensify detrimental effects of biological invasions
Human-induced abiotic global environmental changes (GECs) and the spread of nonnative invasive species are rapidly altering ecosystems. Understanding the relative and interactive effects of invasion and GECs is critical for informing ecosystem adaptation and management, but this information has not been synthesized. We conducted a meta-analysis to investigate effects of invasions, GECs...
Authors
Bianca Lopez, Jenica Allen, Jeffrey Dukes, Jonathan Lenoir, Montserrat Vila, Dana Blumenthal, Evelyn M. Beaury, Emily J. Fusco, Brittany B. Laginhas, Toni Lyn Morelli, Mitchell W. O’Neill, Cascade J.B. Sorte, Alberto Maceda-Veiga, Raj Whitlock, Bethany A. Bradley
Are you sleeping? Are you sleeping? Predicting invasion potential of sleeper species Are you sleeping? Are you sleeping? Predicting invasion potential of sleeper species
Sleeper species are non-native species that are established in a region and could become invasive as climate change makes conditions more favorable for many non-native species. Before we can manage potential sleepers, we must first know their identity. We analyzed non-native, established plants in the Northeast United States (CT, MA, ME, NH, NY, RI, VT) using the Environmental Impact
Authors
Ayodele O’Uhuru, Audrey Barker-Plotkin, Justin Dalaba, Will Pfadenhauer, Amanda Suzzi, Toni Lyn Morelli
Forecasting species distributions: Correlation does not equal causation Forecasting species distributions: Correlation does not equal causation
Aim Identifying the mechanisms influencing species' distributions is critical for accurate climate change forecasts. However, current approaches are limited by correlative models that cannot distinguish between direct and indirect effects.Location New Hampshire and Vermont, USA.Methods Using causal and correlational models and new theory on range limits, we compared current (2014–2019)...
Authors
Alexej Sirén, Christopher Sutherland, Ambarish V. Karmalkar, Matthew Duveneck, Toni Lyn Morelli
Introduction: Climate change in the mountains of Maine and the Northeast Introduction: Climate change in the mountains of Maine and the Northeast
No abstract available.
Authors
Sarah Nelson, Caitlin McDonough MacKenzie, Toni Lyn Morelli, Jay Wason, Bryan Wentzell, Rachel A. Hovel, Glenn A. Hodgkins, Abe J. Miller-Rushing, David Miller, Steve Tatko, Amanda Cross, Mike Pounch
The use of boundary-spanning organizations to bridge the knowledge-action gap in North America The use of boundary-spanning organizations to bridge the knowledge-action gap in North America
The goals of boundary-spanning organizations include communicating among researchers, stakeholders, and resource managers to improve decision-making. These efforts span public agencies, environmental non-governmental organizations, and private stakeholders and occur throughout Canada, the USA, and Mexico. We describe how the core philosophy of boundary-spanning organizations may help...
Authors
Mark W. Schwartz, Erica Fleishman, Matthew A. Williamson, John N. Williams, Toni Lyn Morelli
Translational science education through citizen science Translational science education through citizen science
Guided by the six elements of Translational Ecology (TE; i.e., decision-framing, collaboration, engagement, commitment, process, and communication), we showcase the first explicit example of a Translational Science Education (TSE) effort in the coastal redwood ecosystem of Humboldt County, CA. Using iNaturalist, a flexible and free citizen science/crowdsourcing app, we worked with...
Authors
Allison M. Young, Elizabeth F. van Mantgem, Alexis Garretson, Christine Noel, Toni Lyn Morelli
Science and Products
Filter Total Items: 20
Filter Total Items: 80
Women in wildlife science: Building equity, diversity, and inclusion Women in wildlife science: Building equity, diversity, and inclusion
No abstract available.
Authors
Toni Lyn Morelli, Jahiya Clark
A Great Escape: Resource availability and density-dependence shape population dynamics along trailing range edges A Great Escape: Resource availability and density-dependence shape population dynamics along trailing range edges
Populations along geographical range limits are often exposed to unsuitable climate and low resource availability relative to core populations. As such, there has been a renewed focus on understanding the factors that determine range limits to better predict how species will respond to global change. Using recent theory on range limits and classical understanding of density dependence...
Authors
Alexej Sirén, Marketa Zimova, Chris Sutherland, John T. Finn, Jillian R. Kilborn, Rachel M. Cliche, Leighlan S. Prout, L. Scott Mills, Toni Lyn Morelli
Climate change and the global redistribution of biodiversity: Substantial variation in empirical support for expected range shifts Climate change and the global redistribution of biodiversity: Substantial variation in empirical support for expected range shifts
Background Among the most widely predicted climate change-related impacts to biodiversity are geographic range shifts, whereby species shift their spatial distribution to track their climate niches. A series of commonly articulated hypotheses have emerged in the scientific literature suggesting species are expected to shift their distributions to higher latitudes, greater elevations, and...
Authors
Madeleine A. Rubenstein, Sarah R. Weiskopf, Romain Bertrand, Shawn Carter, Lise Comte, Mitchell J. Eaton, Ciara G. Johnson, Jonathan Lenoir, Abigail Lynch, Brian W. Miller, Toni Lyn Morelli, Mari Angel Rodriguez, Adam Terando, Laura Thompson
Climate change and maple syrup: Producer observations, perceptions, knowledge, and adaptation strategies Climate change and maple syrup: Producer observations, perceptions, knowledge, and adaptation strategies
Introduction: Climate change is impacting forest-based agricultural systems with implications for producer decision-making and livelihoods. This article presents a case study on the observations, perceptions, knowledge, and adaptation strategies of maple syrup producers in the United States to climate change. Methods: We carried out two semi-structured surveys with maple producers on: (1...
Authors
Selena Ahmed, David A. Lutz, T Joshua Rapp, Ryan H. Huish, Boris Dufour, Autumn Brunelle, Toni Lyn Morelli, Kristina A. Stinson, Teresa Warne
Lessons learned in knowledge co-production for climate-smart decision-making Lessons learned in knowledge co-production for climate-smart decision-making
Knowledge co-production, a process that involves both creators and users of information in knowledge generation, is growing in popularity in the conservation and ecology fields. While examples of successful co-production are becoming more common, many barriers and challenges remain in this work. Here, we reflect on our experiences in knowledge co-production from three recent case studies...
Authors
Alyssa Rosemartin, Theresa Crimmins, Katherine L. Gerst, Erin E. Posthumus, Aaron R. Ramirez, Cynthia S. Wallace, Toni Lyn Morelli
Analysis of provisioning ecosystem services and perceptions of climate change for indigenous communities in the Western Himalayan Gurez Valley, Pakistan Analysis of provisioning ecosystem services and perceptions of climate change for indigenous communities in the Western Himalayan Gurez Valley, Pakistan
Climate change is a significant threat to people living in mountainous regions. It is essential to understand how montane communities currently depend especially on the provisioning ecosystem services (ES) and the ways in which climate change will impact these services, so that people can develop relevant adaptation strategies. The ES in the Gurez Valley, in the Western Himalayas of...
Authors
Uzma Saeed, Muhammad Arshad, Shakeel Hayat, Toni Lyn Morelli, Muhammad Ali Nawaz
Global environmental changes more frequently offset than intensify detrimental effects of biological invasions Global environmental changes more frequently offset than intensify detrimental effects of biological invasions
Human-induced abiotic global environmental changes (GECs) and the spread of nonnative invasive species are rapidly altering ecosystems. Understanding the relative and interactive effects of invasion and GECs is critical for informing ecosystem adaptation and management, but this information has not been synthesized. We conducted a meta-analysis to investigate effects of invasions, GECs...
Authors
Bianca Lopez, Jenica Allen, Jeffrey Dukes, Jonathan Lenoir, Montserrat Vila, Dana Blumenthal, Evelyn M. Beaury, Emily J. Fusco, Brittany B. Laginhas, Toni Lyn Morelli, Mitchell W. O’Neill, Cascade J.B. Sorte, Alberto Maceda-Veiga, Raj Whitlock, Bethany A. Bradley
Are you sleeping? Are you sleeping? Predicting invasion potential of sleeper species Are you sleeping? Are you sleeping? Predicting invasion potential of sleeper species
Sleeper species are non-native species that are established in a region and could become invasive as climate change makes conditions more favorable for many non-native species. Before we can manage potential sleepers, we must first know their identity. We analyzed non-native, established plants in the Northeast United States (CT, MA, ME, NH, NY, RI, VT) using the Environmental Impact
Authors
Ayodele O’Uhuru, Audrey Barker-Plotkin, Justin Dalaba, Will Pfadenhauer, Amanda Suzzi, Toni Lyn Morelli
Forecasting species distributions: Correlation does not equal causation Forecasting species distributions: Correlation does not equal causation
Aim Identifying the mechanisms influencing species' distributions is critical for accurate climate change forecasts. However, current approaches are limited by correlative models that cannot distinguish between direct and indirect effects.Location New Hampshire and Vermont, USA.Methods Using causal and correlational models and new theory on range limits, we compared current (2014–2019)...
Authors
Alexej Sirén, Christopher Sutherland, Ambarish V. Karmalkar, Matthew Duveneck, Toni Lyn Morelli
Introduction: Climate change in the mountains of Maine and the Northeast Introduction: Climate change in the mountains of Maine and the Northeast
No abstract available.
Authors
Sarah Nelson, Caitlin McDonough MacKenzie, Toni Lyn Morelli, Jay Wason, Bryan Wentzell, Rachel A. Hovel, Glenn A. Hodgkins, Abe J. Miller-Rushing, David Miller, Steve Tatko, Amanda Cross, Mike Pounch
The use of boundary-spanning organizations to bridge the knowledge-action gap in North America The use of boundary-spanning organizations to bridge the knowledge-action gap in North America
The goals of boundary-spanning organizations include communicating among researchers, stakeholders, and resource managers to improve decision-making. These efforts span public agencies, environmental non-governmental organizations, and private stakeholders and occur throughout Canada, the USA, and Mexico. We describe how the core philosophy of boundary-spanning organizations may help...
Authors
Mark W. Schwartz, Erica Fleishman, Matthew A. Williamson, John N. Williams, Toni Lyn Morelli
Translational science education through citizen science Translational science education through citizen science
Guided by the six elements of Translational Ecology (TE; i.e., decision-framing, collaboration, engagement, commitment, process, and communication), we showcase the first explicit example of a Translational Science Education (TSE) effort in the coastal redwood ecosystem of Humboldt County, CA. Using iNaturalist, a flexible and free citizen science/crowdsourcing app, we worked with...
Authors
Allison M. Young, Elizabeth F. van Mantgem, Alexis Garretson, Christine Noel, Toni Lyn Morelli
*Disclaimer: Listing outside positions with professional scientific organizations on this Staff Profile are for informational purposes only and do not constitute an endorsement of those professional scientific organizations or their activities by the USGS, Department of the Interior, or U.S. Government