William Link, Ph.D. (Former Employee)

Fitness is the currency of natural selection, a measure of the propagation rate of genotypes into future generations. Its various definitions have the common feature that they are functions of survival and fertility rates. At the individual level, the operative level for natural selection, these rates must be understood as latent features, genetically determined propensities existing at...

Population matrix models allow sets of demographic parameters to be summarized by a single value λ, the finite rate of population increase. The consequences of change in individual demographic parameters are naturally measured by the corresponding changes in λ; sensitivity analyses compare demographic parameters on the basis of these changes. These comparisons are complicated by issues...

Estimation of population change from count surveys is complicated by variation in quality of information among sample units, by the need for covariates to accommodate factors that influence detectability of animals, and by multiple geographic scales of interest. We present a hierarchical model for estimation of population change from the North American Breeding Bird Survey. Hierarchical...

We discuss the analysis of random effects in capture-recapture models, and outline Bayesian and frequentists approaches to their analysis. Under a normal model, random effects estimators derived from Bayesian or frequentist considerations have a common form as shrinkage estimators. We discuss some of the difficulties of analysing random effects using traditional methods, and argue that a

We apply a Poisson mixed model to the problem of mapping (or predicting) bird relative abundance from counts collected from the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS). The model expresses the logarithm of the Poisson mean as a sum of a fixed term (which may depend on habitat variables) and a random effect which accounts for remaining unexplained variation. The random effect is assumed...

Many ecological studies require analysis of collections of estimates. For example, population change is routinely estimated for many species from surveys such as the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS), and the species are grouped and used in comparative analyses. We developed a hierarchical model for estimation of group attributes from a collection of estimates of population trend...

We investigated the influence of age on survival and breeding rates in a long-lived species Rissa tridactyla using models with individual random effects permitting variation and covariation in fitness components among individuals. Differences in survival or breeding probabilities among individuals are substantial, and there was positive covariation between survival and breeding...

We give suggestions for the presentation of research results from frequentist, information-theoretic, and Bayesian analysis paradigms, followed by several general suggestions. The information-theoretic and Bayesian methods offer alternative approaches to data analysis and inference compared to traditionally used methods. Guidance is lacking on the presentation of results under these...

Early growth of Roseate Tern (Sterna dougallii) chicks is a strong predictor of chick survival and hence of productivity. We developed discriminant functions to predict chick survival from body-masses measured during the first 3 days of life. Productivity is estimated by assuming that almost all A-chicks (first-hatched in each brood) survive to fledging, and using the discriminant...

The Christmas Bird Count (CBC) is a valuable source of information about midwinter populations of birds in the continental U.S. and Canada. Analysis of CBC data is complicated by substantial variation among sites and years in effort expended in counting; this feature of the CBC is common to many other wildlife surveys. Specification of a method for adjusting counts for effort is a matter...

The North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) was started in 1966, and provides information on population change and distribution for most of the birds in North America. The geographic extent of the survey, and the logistical compromises needed to survey such a large area, present many challenges for estimation from BBS data. In this paper, we describe the survey and discuss some of the

Count survey data are commonly used for estimating temporal and spatial patterns of population change. Since count surveys are not censuses, counts can be influenced by 'nuisance factors' related to the probability of detecting animals but unrelated to the actual population size. The effects of systematic changes in these factors can be confounded with patterns of population change. Thus...