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Heavy tails and earthquake probabilities Heavy tails and earthquake probabilities

The 21st century has already seen its share of devastating earthquakes, some of which have been labeled as “unexpected,” at least in the eyes of some seismologists and more than a few journalists. A list of seismological surprises could include the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman Islands; 2008 Wenchuan, China; 2009 Haiti; 2011 Christchurch, New Zealand; and 2011 Tohoku, Japan, earthquakes
Authors
William L. Ellsworth

The western limits of the Seattle fault zone and its interaction with the Olympic Peninsula, Washington The western limits of the Seattle fault zone and its interaction with the Olympic Peninsula, Washington

We present evidence that the Seattle fault zone of Washington State extends to the west edge of the Puget Lowland and is kinemati-cally linked to active faults that border the Olympic Massif, including the Saddle Moun-tain deformation zone. Newly acquired high-resolution seismic reflection and marine magnetic data suggest that the Seattle fault zone extends west beyond the Seattle Basin...
Authors
A.P. Lamb, L.M. Liberty, Richard J. Blakely, Thomas L. Pratt, B.L. Sherrod, K. Van Wijk

Response of a tall building far from the epicenter of the 11 March 2011 M 9.0 Great East Japan earthquake and aftershocks Response of a tall building far from the epicenter of the 11 March 2011 M 9.0 Great East Japan earthquake and aftershocks

The 11 March 2011 M 9.0 Great East Japan earthquake generated significant long-duration shaking that propagated hundreds of kilometers from the epicenter and affected urban areas throughout much of Honshu. Recorded responses of a tall building at 770 km from the epicenter of the mainshock and other related or unrelated events show how structures sensitive to long-period motions can be...
Authors
Mehmet Çelebi, Izuru Okawa, Toshidate Kashima, Shin Koyama, Masanori Iiba

Ambient response of a unique performance-based design building with dynamic response modification features Ambient response of a unique performance-based design building with dynamic response modification features

A 64-story, performance-based design building with reinforced concrete core shear-walls and unique dynamic response modification features (tuned liquid sloshing dampers and buckling-restrained braces) has been instrumented with a monitoring array of 72 channels of accelerometers. Ambient vibration data recorded are analyzed to identify modes and associated frequencies and damping. The...
Authors
Mehmet Çelebi, Moh Huang, Antony Shakal, John Hooper, Ron Klemencic

Laboratory triggering of stick-slip events by oscillatory loading in the presence of pore fluid with implications for physics of tectonic tremor Laboratory triggering of stick-slip events by oscillatory loading in the presence of pore fluid with implications for physics of tectonic tremor

The physical mechanism by which the low-frequency earthquakes (LFEs) that make up portions of tectonic (also called non-volcanic) tremor are created is poorly understood. In many areas of the world, tectonic tremor and LFEs appear to be strongly tidally modulated, whereas ordinary earthquakes are not. Anomalous seismic wave speeds, interpreted as high pore fluid pressure, have been...
Authors
Noel M. Bartlow, David A. Lockner, Nicholas M. Beeler

Laboratory observations of fault strength in response to changes in normal stress Laboratory observations of fault strength in response to changes in normal stress

Changes in fault normal stress can either inhibit or promote rupture propagation, depending on the fault geometry and on how fault shear strength varies in response to the normal stress change. A better understanding of this dependence will lead to improved earthquake simulation techniques, and ultimately, improved earthquake hazard mitigation efforts. We present the results of new...
Authors
Brian D. Kilgore, Julian Lozos, Nicholas M. Beeler, David Oglesby

Advanced earthquake monitoring system for U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs medical buildings–Instrumentation Advanced earthquake monitoring system for U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs medical buildings–Instrumentation

In collaboration with the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs (VA), the National Strong Motion Project (NSMP; http://nsmp.wr.usgs.gov/) of the U.S. Geological Survey has been installing sophisticated seismic systems that will monitor the structural integrity of 28 VA hospital buildings located in seismically active regions of the conterminous United States, Alaska, and Puerto Rico during
Authors
Erol Kalkan, Krishna Banga, Hasan S. Ulusoy, Jon Peter B. Fletcher, William S. Leith, Shahneam Reza, Timothy Cheng

Using cluster analysis to organize and explore regional GPS velocities Using cluster analysis to organize and explore regional GPS velocities

Cluster analysis offers a simple visual exploratory tool for the initial investigation of regional Global Positioning System (GPS) velocity observations, which are providing increasingly precise mappings of actively deforming continental lithosphere. The deformation fields from dense regional GPS networks can often be concisely described in terms of relatively coherent blocks bounded by...
Authors
Robert W. Simpson, Wayne Thatcher, James C. Savage

Why the 2002 Denali fault rupture propagated onto the Totschunda fault: implications for fault branching and seismic hazards Why the 2002 Denali fault rupture propagated onto the Totschunda fault: implications for fault branching and seismic hazards

The propagation of the rupture of the Mw7.9 Denali fault earthquake from the central Denali fault onto the Totschunda fault has provided a basis for dynamic models of fault branching in which the angle of the regional or local prestress relative to the orientation of the main fault and branch plays a principal role in determining which fault branch is taken. GeoEarthScope LiDAR and...
Authors
David P. Schwartz, Peter J. Haeussler, Gordon G. Seitz, Timothy E. Dawson

Fixed recurrence and slip models better predict earthquake behavior than the time- and slip-predictable models 1: repeating earthquakes Fixed recurrence and slip models better predict earthquake behavior than the time- and slip-predictable models 1: repeating earthquakes

The behavior of individual events in repeating earthquake sequences in California, Taiwan and Japan is better predicted by a model with fixed inter-event time or fixed slip than it is by the time- and slip-predictable models for earthquake occurrence. Given that repeating earthquakes are highly regular in both inter-event time and seismic moment, the time- and slip-predictable models...
Authors
Justin L. Rubinstein, William L. Ellsworth, Kate Huihsuan Chen, Naoki Uchida

Exploring the Earth's crust: History and results of controlled-source seismology Exploring the Earth's crust: History and results of controlled-source seismology

This volume contains a comprehensive, worldwide history of seismological studies of the Earth’s crust using controlled sources from 1850 to 2005. Essentially all major seismic projects on land and the most important oceanic projects are covered. The time period 1850 to 1939 is presented as a general synthesis, and from 1940 onward the history and results are presented in separate...
Authors
Claus Prodehl, Walter D. Mooney

Golden Gate Bridge response: a study with low-amplitude data from three earthquakes Golden Gate Bridge response: a study with low-amplitude data from three earthquakes

The dynamic response of the Golden Gate Bridge, located north of San Francisco, CA, has been studied previously using ambient vibration data and finite element models. Since permanent seismic instrumentation was installed in 1993, only small earthquakes that originated at distances varying between ~11 to 122 km have been recorded. Nonetheless, these records prompted this study of the...
Authors
Mehmet Çelebi
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