Publications

Nonlinear behavior is prevalent in all aspects of the Earth System, including ecological responses to global change (Gallagher and Appenzeller 1999; Steffen et al. 2004). Nonlinear behavior refers to a large, discontinuous change in response to a small change in a driving variable (Rial et al. 2004). In contrast to linear systems where responses are smooth, well-behaved, continuous...

This paper provides updates on population estimates for 52 species of shorebirds, involving 75 taxa, occurring in North America. New information resulting in a changed estimate is available for 39 of the 75 taxa (52%), involving 24 increases and 15 decreases. The preponderance of increased estimates is likely the result of improved estimates rather than actual increases in numbers. Many...

Riparian willow communities along the Illinois River at Arapaho National Wildlife Refuge in North Park near Walden, Colorado, provide important habitat for a number of wildlife species, including neotropical migratory birds. Existing stands in the northern (downstream) portion of the refuge are sparse and discontinuous (Photo 1) compared to upstream portions of the Illinois River and the...

The black-footed ferret (Mustela nigripes) is a member of the weasel family (Mustelidae) and is closely related to the Siberian polecat (M. eversmannii) of Asian steppes and the European polecat (M. putorius). Compared to its relatives, the black-footed ferret is an extreme specialist, depending on the prairie dogs (Cynomys spp.) of North American grasslands for food and using prairie...

We evaluated the influences of several ecological, biological, and methodological factors on post-fledging survival of a shortgrass prairie bird, the Lark Bunting (Calamospiza melanocorys). We estimated daily post-fledging survival (n = 206, 82 broods) using radiotelemetry and color bands to track fledglings. Daily survival probabilities were best explained by drought intensity, time in...

No abstract available.

An ecological threshold is the point at which there is an abrupt change in an ecosystem quality, property or phenomenon, or where small changes in an environmental driver produce large responses in the ecosystem. Analysis of thresholds is complicated by nonlinear dynamics and by multiple factor controls that operate at diverse spatial and temporal scales. These complexities have...

A drop in dispersion, F-ratio like, permutation test (D) for linear quantile regression estimates (0≤τ≤1) had relative power ≥1 compared to quantile rank score tests (T) for hypotheses on parameters other than the intercept. Power was compared for combinations of sample sizes (n=20−300) and quantiles (τ=0.50−0.99) where both tests maintained valid Type I error rates in simulations with p...

Wildfires elicit a perceived need for emergency action to stabilize denuded landscapes. Aerial seeding of rapidly growing nonnative grasses is used routinely in an attempt to control postfire erosion, despite limited scientific basis for its effectiveness and with little consideration for its unintended ecological impacts. As fire size and magnitude have increased in recent decades, so...

The occurrence of large, severe fires in southwestern ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) forests has resulted in concern that these forests may not persist under such an extreme disturbance regime. In our research, we are examining the outcomes of high-severity fire in ponderosa pine forests and their neighboring communities across an elevational gradient. One goal of our work is to...

An essential component of shorebird conservation is identifying, protecting, and managing high-priority stopover sites and migration habitats crucial to the long-term persistence of migrating shorebirds. Because of the tremendous variability in migrant shorebird occurrence patterns in the Prairie Pothole Region of the U.S. (Skagen 1997), it is labor- and cost-intensive to locate the...

Since 1990, native bark beetles have killed billions of trees across millions of acres of forest from Alaska to northern Mexico. Although bark beetle infestations are a regular force of natural change in forested ecosystems, several of the current outbreaks, which are occurring simultaneously across western North America, are the largest and most severe in recorded history.