Identifying Chains of Consequences and Interventions for Post-fire Hazards and Impacts to Resources and Ecosystems

Background

This project contributes to a broader PHIRE effort that is providing science support for areas affected by 2021 federally declared Major Disaster wildfires in California (Dixie and Caldor Fires and KNP Complex) and Washington (Muckamuck and Cedar Creek Fires). The broader project is being conducted by scientists from multiple disciplines and USGS Missions Areas, who are collectively studying post-fire vegetation trajectories, landslide and debris flow hazards, water flow and quality, sediment runoff, remote sensing characterization, and social sciences.  

Stakeholder Workshops

The social science sub-team is working to integrate the other core science areas through workshops with stakeholders who have context-specific knowledge about post-fire hazards, responses, and their impacts in the regions of California and Washington that were affected by these 2021 fires. Workshops follow an adapted version of the Chain of Consequences method, developed by the DOI Strategic Sciences Group (SSG), formally the Strategic Sciences Working Group. This method was first used in response to the Deepwater Horizon oil spill and later applied to Hurricane Sandy, Kilauea Eruption, hypothetical salamander pathogen detection in Appalachia, and several other DOI projects.  

In this project, we adapt this method to the context of integrating hazards and responses following significant wildfire events. Through online workshops, stakeholders collaboratively identify cascading post-fire hazard consequences, following the logical chain of each consequence leading to subsequent further consequences. These “chains of consequences” support visualizing the depth and breadth of wildfire impacts, as well as identifying overlaps and feedbacks across different consequence chains. After mapping out the chains of consequences, workshop participants collaboratively identify interventions intended to reduce the likelihood or severity of listed consequences. These interventions include institutional actions that support recovery from wildfire and that increase resilience of the coupled human-natural system to future wildfire events.  

The first Post-Fire Hazards Chains of Consequences workshop convened stakeholders with context-specific knowledge on post-fire hazard consequences and intervention in Okanogan County, Washington, in Spring 2023. Future workshops will convene stakeholders with context-specific knowledge on California’s post-fire hazards after the Dixie Fire, Caldor Fire, and KNP Complex. The stakeholders attending these workshops have diverse expertise in emergency management, post-fire vegetation trajectories, landslide and debris flow hazards, water flow and quality, sediment runoff, remote sensing characterization, and cultural resources.  

Anticipated Outcomes

Anticipated outcomes of the workshops include:

• An integrative, place-specific view of potential post-fire hazard cascading consequences that cuts across disciplines and areas of expertise;
• A set of collaboratively developed interventions and expectations for how these can influence the potential longer-term consequences of significant wildfire events; and
• Insights for increasing the usability and applicability of USGS products pertaining to post-wildfire hazards and risks to stakeholder needs.