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Probabilistic Forecasting of Earthquakes, Tsunamis, and Earthquake Effects in the Coastal Zone

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By Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center November 9, 2021

The nation's coastlines are vulnerable to the interrelated hazards posed by earthquakes, landslides, and tsunamis. In the marine environment these events often occur in concert, and distant triggers can cause severe local effects, making the issue global in scope. As the population continues to migrate toward the coastlines, the social impacts of these hazards are expected to grow.

Products are aimed for use in regional multi-hazard assessments, and might range from complete assessments to analysis tools, interpreted data, or models. We are interacting with groups tasked with making formal hazard assessments and have provided products needed by them in a timely manner (e.g., Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC), Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP)). These collaborations will continue to be a major guiding influence, and we plan to maintain research flexibility needed for proper response as necessary. As such, the task is defined thematically. The larger community will help to establish guidelines on regions in which we will we work.

Research Web Sites

Tsunami and Earthquake Research
This site provides general information about how earthquakes generate tsunamis, as well as descriptions and animations of historical tsunamis, virtual reality models showing how tsunamis change as they approach and bounce off coastlines, and summaries of past fieldwork in areas struck by major tsunamis.

Earthquake Hazards Program
We work closely with scientists in the USGS Earthquake Hazards Program, with the goal of providing relevant scientific information to reduce deaths, injuries, and property damage from earthquakes.

Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP)
We collaborate with groups that make formal hazard assessments, such as the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP), providing and evaluating the latest scientific information. This site presents the most recent collaborative earthquake forecasts for all of California.

Global Geoengineering Research
The Coastal and Marine Geology geoengineering group investigates the causes of ground deformation and ground failures—such as landslides and liquefaction—that result from earthquakes, storms, and wave action.

Below are other science projects associated with this project.

Below are publications associated with this project.

Filter Total Items: 115

Book review: Rogue waves in the ocean Book review: Rogue waves in the ocean

Rogue Waves in the Ocean (2009) is a follow-on text to Extreme Ocean Waves (2008) edited by Pelinovsky and Kharif, both published by Springer. Unlike the earlier text, which is a compilation of papers on a variety of extreme waves that was the subject of a scientific conference in 2007, Rogues Waves in the Ocean is written, rather than edited, by Kharif, Pelinovsky, and Slunyaev and is...
Authors
Eric L. Geist
By
Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center

The May 2005 eruption of Fernandina volcano, Galápagos: The first circumferential dike intrusion observed by GPS and InSAR The May 2005 eruption of Fernandina volcano, Galápagos: The first circumferential dike intrusion observed by GPS and InSAR

The May 2005 eruption of Fernandina volcano, Galápagos, occurred along circumferential fissures parallel to the caldera rim and fed lava flows down the steep southwestern slope of the volcano for several weeks. This was the first circumferential dike intrusion ever observed by both InSAR and GPS measurements and thus provides an opportunity to determine the subsurface geometry of these...
Authors
W.W. Chadwick, Sigurjon Jonsson, Dennis J. Geist, Michael P. Poland, Daniel J. Johnson, S. Batt, Karen S. Harpp, A. Ruiz
By
Volcano Hazards Program, Volcano Science Center, Hawaiian Volcano Observatory

No correlation between Anderson Reservoir stage level and underlying Calaveras fault seismicity despite calculated differential stress increases No correlation between Anderson Reservoir stage level and underlying Calaveras fault seismicity despite calculated differential stress increases

Concerns have been raised that stresses from reservoir impoundment may trigger damaging earthquakes because rate changes have been associated with reservoir impoundment or stage-level changes globally. Here, the idea is tested blindly using Anderson Reservoir, which lies atop the seismically active Calaveras fault. The only knowledge held by the author going into the study was the...
Authors
T. Parsons

Book review: Nonlinear ocean waves and the inverse scattering transform Book review: Nonlinear ocean waves and the inverse scattering transform

Nonlinear Ocean Waves and the Inverse Scattering Transform is a comprehensive examination of ocean waves built upon the theory of nonlinear Fourier analysis. The renowned author, Alfred R. Osborne, is perhaps best known for the discovery of internal solitons in the Andaman Sea during the 1970s. In this book, he provides an extensive treatment of nonlinear water waves based on a nonlinear
Authors
Eric L. Geist
By
Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center

Retesting of liquefaction and nonliquefaction case histories from the 1976 Tangshan earthquake Retesting of liquefaction and nonliquefaction case histories from the 1976 Tangshan earthquake

A field investigation was performed to retest liquefaction and nonliquefaction sites from the 1976 Tangshan earthquake in China. These sites were carefully investigated in 1978 and 1979 by using standard penetration test (SPT) and cone penetration test (CPT) equipment; however, the CPT measurements are obsolete because of the now nonstandard cone that was used at the time. In 2007, a...
Authors
R.E.S. Moss, R. E. Kayen, L.-Y. Tong, S.-Y. Liu, G.-J. Cai, J. Wu

Assessing historical rate changes in global tsunami occurrence Assessing historical rate changes in global tsunami occurrence

The global catalogue of tsunami events is examined to determine if transient variations in tsunami rates are consistent with a Poisson process commonly assumed for tsunami hazard assessments. The primary data analyzed are tsunamis with maximum sizes >1m. The record of these tsunamis appears to be complete since approximately 1890. A secondary data set of tsunamis >0.1m is also analyzed...
Authors
E.L. Geist, T. Parsons
By
Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center

Below are news stories associated with this project.

Below are FAQ associated with this project.

The nation's coastlines are vulnerable to the interrelated hazards posed by earthquakes, landslides, and tsunamis. In the marine environment these events often occur in concert, and distant triggers can cause severe local effects, making the issue global in scope. As the population continues to migrate toward the coastlines, the social impacts of these hazards are expected to grow.

Products are aimed for use in regional multi-hazard assessments, and might range from complete assessments to analysis tools, interpreted data, or models. We are interacting with groups tasked with making formal hazard assessments and have provided products needed by them in a timely manner (e.g., Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC), Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP)). These collaborations will continue to be a major guiding influence, and we plan to maintain research flexibility needed for proper response as necessary. As such, the task is defined thematically. The larger community will help to establish guidelines on regions in which we will we work.

Research Web Sites

Tsunami and Earthquake Research
This site provides general information about how earthquakes generate tsunamis, as well as descriptions and animations of historical tsunamis, virtual reality models showing how tsunamis change as they approach and bounce off coastlines, and summaries of past fieldwork in areas struck by major tsunamis.

Earthquake Hazards Program
We work closely with scientists in the USGS Earthquake Hazards Program, with the goal of providing relevant scientific information to reduce deaths, injuries, and property damage from earthquakes.

Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP)
We collaborate with groups that make formal hazard assessments, such as the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP), providing and evaluating the latest scientific information. This site presents the most recent collaborative earthquake forecasts for all of California.

Global Geoengineering Research
The Coastal and Marine Geology geoengineering group investigates the causes of ground deformation and ground failures—such as landslides and liquefaction—that result from earthquakes, storms, and wave action.

Below are other science projects associated with this project.

Below are publications associated with this project.

Filter Total Items: 115

Book review: Rogue waves in the ocean Book review: Rogue waves in the ocean

Rogue Waves in the Ocean (2009) is a follow-on text to Extreme Ocean Waves (2008) edited by Pelinovsky and Kharif, both published by Springer. Unlike the earlier text, which is a compilation of papers on a variety of extreme waves that was the subject of a scientific conference in 2007, Rogues Waves in the Ocean is written, rather than edited, by Kharif, Pelinovsky, and Slunyaev and is...
Authors
Eric L. Geist
By
Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center

The May 2005 eruption of Fernandina volcano, Galápagos: The first circumferential dike intrusion observed by GPS and InSAR The May 2005 eruption of Fernandina volcano, Galápagos: The first circumferential dike intrusion observed by GPS and InSAR

The May 2005 eruption of Fernandina volcano, Galápagos, occurred along circumferential fissures parallel to the caldera rim and fed lava flows down the steep southwestern slope of the volcano for several weeks. This was the first circumferential dike intrusion ever observed by both InSAR and GPS measurements and thus provides an opportunity to determine the subsurface geometry of these...
Authors
W.W. Chadwick, Sigurjon Jonsson, Dennis J. Geist, Michael P. Poland, Daniel J. Johnson, S. Batt, Karen S. Harpp, A. Ruiz
By
Volcano Hazards Program, Volcano Science Center, Hawaiian Volcano Observatory

No correlation between Anderson Reservoir stage level and underlying Calaveras fault seismicity despite calculated differential stress increases No correlation between Anderson Reservoir stage level and underlying Calaveras fault seismicity despite calculated differential stress increases

Concerns have been raised that stresses from reservoir impoundment may trigger damaging earthquakes because rate changes have been associated with reservoir impoundment or stage-level changes globally. Here, the idea is tested blindly using Anderson Reservoir, which lies atop the seismically active Calaveras fault. The only knowledge held by the author going into the study was the...
Authors
T. Parsons

Book review: Nonlinear ocean waves and the inverse scattering transform Book review: Nonlinear ocean waves and the inverse scattering transform

Nonlinear Ocean Waves and the Inverse Scattering Transform is a comprehensive examination of ocean waves built upon the theory of nonlinear Fourier analysis. The renowned author, Alfred R. Osborne, is perhaps best known for the discovery of internal solitons in the Andaman Sea during the 1970s. In this book, he provides an extensive treatment of nonlinear water waves based on a nonlinear
Authors
Eric L. Geist
By
Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center

Retesting of liquefaction and nonliquefaction case histories from the 1976 Tangshan earthquake Retesting of liquefaction and nonliquefaction case histories from the 1976 Tangshan earthquake

A field investigation was performed to retest liquefaction and nonliquefaction sites from the 1976 Tangshan earthquake in China. These sites were carefully investigated in 1978 and 1979 by using standard penetration test (SPT) and cone penetration test (CPT) equipment; however, the CPT measurements are obsolete because of the now nonstandard cone that was used at the time. In 2007, a...
Authors
R.E.S. Moss, R. E. Kayen, L.-Y. Tong, S.-Y. Liu, G.-J. Cai, J. Wu

Assessing historical rate changes in global tsunami occurrence Assessing historical rate changes in global tsunami occurrence

The global catalogue of tsunami events is examined to determine if transient variations in tsunami rates are consistent with a Poisson process commonly assumed for tsunami hazard assessments. The primary data analyzed are tsunamis with maximum sizes >1m. The record of these tsunamis appears to be complete since approximately 1890. A secondary data set of tsunamis >0.1m is also analyzed...
Authors
E.L. Geist, T. Parsons
By
Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center

Below are news stories associated with this project.

Below are FAQ associated with this project.

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