Hurricane Michael - Forecast and Documentation of Coastal Change

Science Center Objects

Hurricane Michael coastal change forecast and pre- and post-storm photos documenting coastal change.

Forecast of Potential Coastal Change

The coastal change forecast model predicts the probability of where and how sand dunes along the coast will be impacted by water levels during a storm. This includes the combined effect of surge and wave runup. The color band closest to the shoreline is the probability of dune erosion, the middle color band is the probability that sand dunes will be overtopped by waves during the storm, and the outer color band is the probability that the sand dunes will be completely inundated/flooded. The model forecast is available on the Coastal Change Hazards Portal and more information about the model can be found at:

Map with bands overlain showing predicted probabilities of dune erosion, overwash, and inundation for Hurricane Michael.

Predicted probabilities of dune erosion (inner band), overwash (middle band), and inundation (outer band) for Hurricane Michael. Pictures are representative of coastal change observed during past storm events. (Public domain.)

Pre-and Post-Storm Photo Comparisons

Below are initial comparisons of imagery collected by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in 2017 and 2018 with similar imagery taken a few days after Hurricane Michael’s landfall ( These photos provide information about how the coast was impacted by the storm and can be used as validation for the model.