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Arrowhead Marsh is located in central San Francisco Bay and covers 17 hectares. We surveyed 274 elevation points and 50 vegetation plots to determine baseline conditions of the marsh. Water level loggers deployed in 2010 were used to characterize the tidal inundation patterns throughout the year. Sediment accretion rates from soil cores at China Camp State Park were extrapolated to Arrowhead and used as input for the WARMER sea-level rise response model. WARMER projects that by 2040 Arrowhead marsh will be dominated by low marsh vegetation and will transition into mudflat habitat by 2080.
To download the Arrowhead PDF Summary Report (Arrowhead appendix from USGS Open-File Report Final report for sea-level rise response modeling for San Francisco Bay estuary tidal marshes):
Projected sea-level rise at Arrowhead Marsh. Dark blue represents mean high water level, light blue is mean sea level. The marsh platform is accreting a constant 1.9 mm/yr, sea level rises 0.4 m by 2050 and 1.0 meter by 2100.
Below are data or web applications associated with this project.
Map of elevation sampling point locations at Arrowhead Marsh. To learn more about this project, visit Modeling Sea-Level Rise in San Francisco Bay Estuary.
Map of the derived elevation data at Arrowhead Marsh. To learn more about this project, visit Modeling Sea-Level Rise in San Francisco Bay Estuary.
Map of the derived elevation data at Arrowhead Marsh with 2 cm contour lines. To learn more about this project, visit Modeling Sea-Level Rise in San Francisco Bay Estuary.