Science Center Objects

The marsh at San Pablo Bay National Wildlife Refuge is located at the north side of San Pablo Bay and covers 1411 hectares. We surveyed 1,396 elevation points and 888 vegetation plots to determine baseline conditions of the marsh. Water level loggers deployed in 2010 were used to characterize the tidal inundation patterns throughout the year. Sediment accretion rates from soil cores at China Camp State Park marsh were extrapolated to San Pablo marsh and used as input for the WARMER sea-level rise response model. WARMER projects that by 2050 San Pablo marsh will be dominated by low marsh vegetation and will transition into mudflat habitat by 2080. 

The marsh at San Pablo Bay National Wildlife Refuge is located at the north side of San Pablo Bay and covers 1411 hectares. We surveyed 1,396 elevation points and 888 vegetation plots to determine baseline conditions of the marsh. Water level loggers deployed in 2010 were used to characterize the tidal inundation patterns throughout the year. Sediment accretion rates from soil cores at China Camp State Park marsh were extrapolated to San Pablo marsh and used as input for the WARMER sea-level rise response model. WARMER projects that by 2050 San Pablo marsh will be dominated by low marsh vegetation and will transition into mudflat habitat by 2080. 

SAN PABLO BAY MARSH

WERC San Pablo Bay NWR study area
(Public domain.)
WERC San Pablo NWR figures
The elevation histogram for San Pablo Bay marsh shows the marsh platform is above MHW on average (Fig. 1). Data from the vegetation surveys indicate relatively high species richness (Fig. 2 and 3). The percent of time San Pablo Bay marsh is inundated varies throughout the year by season, with the most inundation during the winter (Fig. 4). Results from WARMER response model indicate that San Pablo Bay Marsh will lose relative elevation as sea levels rise (Fig. 5). The marsh platform at San Pablo Bay marsh is projected to transition to low marsh habitat by 2050 and be below mean sea level by 2080 (Fig. 6).  (Public domain.)
WERC West San Pablo Bay WARMER results
(Public domain.)
WERC East San Pablo Bay WARMER results
(Public domain.)

To download the San Pablo Bay PDF Summary Report (San Pablo Bay appendix from USGS Open-File Report Final report for sea-level rise response modeling for San Francisco Bay estuary tidal marshes):