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As temperatures warm, cold-sensitive mangroves are expected to expand their range, sometimes displacing cold-tolerant salt marshes. This shift could affect the ecological and economic services these habitats provide to the communities that rely on them, such as coastal protection, improved water quality, and carbon sequestration. However, current mangrove distribution data for range limits are often incorrect, cover a small area, or only cover a single time period.

To better understand the rapidly shifting range limits of mangroves in response to warming temperatures, USGS and partners from Northeastern University and more than 30 other institutions assessed mangrove distribution along the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic coasts in the southeastern United States.

The team of coastal scientists from academia, government, and non-governmental organizations developed a mangrove presence dataset for the southeastern U.S., which was then compared to existing datasets at varying spatial scales.

The assessment found that in the southeastern U.S., reliable mangrove distribution data are more readily available for tall continuous mangrove forests closer to the center of their distribution (e.g., south and central Florida), while ground-truthed, reliable mangrove distribution data are not readily available near range limits in northern Florida, Louisiana, and Texas.

The team of scientists also identified knowledge gaps and data limitations, including a need for refined data collection methods and improved spatiotemporal data regarding changes in mangrove structure and abundance near northern range limits in the southeastern U.S.

Mangrove range limits in this region are dynamic and highly sensitive to climate change. This is due to the abundance of suitable coastal wetland habitat and the exposure of mangroves to winter temperature extremes that are much colder than comparable range limits on other continents. The frequency and intensity of extreme cold events determine the northern range limits of mangroves; extreme winter temperatures (i.e., freezing and chilling events) can lead to mangrove damage and mortality.

Insights from this study help improve understanding of rapidly changing range limits for mangroves and can be applied to other range-shifting species, many of which lack reliable data at landscape or regional scales.

This information also helps inform the design and implementation of effective management strategies to address the likely cascading effects of climate-induced species distributions on ecosystems and the human communities that depend on their ecosystem services.

 Read the study here: https://www.usgs.gov/publications/rapidly-changing-range-limits-a-warming-world-critical-data-limitations-and-knowledge.