Evaluating Population Viability and Habitat Suitability for the Cape Sable Seaside Sparrow Under Future Climate and Management Conditions
WARC will assess Cape Sable seaside sparrow population response and viability under different management and habitat change scenarios. The USGS EverSparrow model will be run on future scenarios, and differences in the predicted probability of presence and the efficacy of varying conservation strategies will be evaluated.
The Science Issue and Relevance: The Cape Sable seaside sparrow (CSSS; Ammospiza maritima mirabilis) is listed as federally endangered under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Estimates of the CSSS population indicate a 67% decline since 1981 across its fragmented range in the Florida Everglades, primarily within Everglades National Park and Big Cypress National Preserve. Given the severe population decline and spatial limitations for habitat expansion, questions remain about population viability and options for population recovery. This project aims to help the National Park Service (NPS) identify recovery actions that consider anticipated future conditions. The project objectives are to 1) simulate CSSS demographic response, population viability, and habitat suitability under different management and habitat change scenarios; and 2) evaluate the potential efficacy of conservation strategies for CSSS recovery under these scenarios.

Methodology for Addressing the Issue: To address the first objective, USGS WARC will engage with NPS, CSSS stakeholders, and experts to design management and habitat change scenarios that reflect realistic conservation considerations that may be implemented. USGS scientists will simulate future habitat conditions for the CSSS that incorporate ongoing ecosystem restoration and potential impacts from sea level rise using the best available data. Population response and viability under these management and habitat change scenarios will be determined using a Bayesian population viability analysis (BPVA) extension to an existing integrated population model of the CSSS (IPM; Martinez et al. 2023). To simulate habitat suitability, the EverSparrow model (Haider et al. 2021) will be run on future scenarios and differences in predicted probability of presence will be evaluated. Finally, the results of these simulations will be compared to a status quo scenario, and then used to evaluate the potential efficacy of different conservation strategies.
Future Steps: The IPM-BPVA framework can be updated as new demographic data are collected or alternative restoration scenarios are considered. Forecasting changes to CSSS habitat and population dynamics under anticipated restoration and sea level rise scenarios has applications for assessing threats and opportunities for different conservation strategies and can assist NPS, other natural resource managers, and restoration planners in making long-term management decisions for this endangered bird.

Demographic Analysis of the Endangered Cape Sable Seaside Sparrow
Knowledge Synthesis of Cape Sable Seaside Sparrow Science
Modeling Spatial Habitat Quality for the Cape Sable Seaside Sparrow
Joint Ecosystem Modeling: Cape Sable Seaside Sparrow Helper
Joint Ecosystem Modeling: Cape Sable Seaside Sparrow Marl Prairie Indicator
Model code to build and run an integrated population model for the endangered Cape Sable Seaside Sparrow
Long-term demographic analysis of the Cape Sable seaside sparrow (1992–2021)
Landscape-scale drivers of endangered Cape Sable Seaside Sparrow (Ammospiza maritima mirabilis) presence using an ensemble modeling approach
WARC will assess Cape Sable seaside sparrow population response and viability under different management and habitat change scenarios. The USGS EverSparrow model will be run on future scenarios, and differences in the predicted probability of presence and the efficacy of varying conservation strategies will be evaluated.
The Science Issue and Relevance: The Cape Sable seaside sparrow (CSSS; Ammospiza maritima mirabilis) is listed as federally endangered under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Estimates of the CSSS population indicate a 67% decline since 1981 across its fragmented range in the Florida Everglades, primarily within Everglades National Park and Big Cypress National Preserve. Given the severe population decline and spatial limitations for habitat expansion, questions remain about population viability and options for population recovery. This project aims to help the National Park Service (NPS) identify recovery actions that consider anticipated future conditions. The project objectives are to 1) simulate CSSS demographic response, population viability, and habitat suitability under different management and habitat change scenarios; and 2) evaluate the potential efficacy of conservation strategies for CSSS recovery under these scenarios.

Methodology for Addressing the Issue: To address the first objective, USGS WARC will engage with NPS, CSSS stakeholders, and experts to design management and habitat change scenarios that reflect realistic conservation considerations that may be implemented. USGS scientists will simulate future habitat conditions for the CSSS that incorporate ongoing ecosystem restoration and potential impacts from sea level rise using the best available data. Population response and viability under these management and habitat change scenarios will be determined using a Bayesian population viability analysis (BPVA) extension to an existing integrated population model of the CSSS (IPM; Martinez et al. 2023). To simulate habitat suitability, the EverSparrow model (Haider et al. 2021) will be run on future scenarios and differences in predicted probability of presence will be evaluated. Finally, the results of these simulations will be compared to a status quo scenario, and then used to evaluate the potential efficacy of different conservation strategies.
Future Steps: The IPM-BPVA framework can be updated as new demographic data are collected or alternative restoration scenarios are considered. Forecasting changes to CSSS habitat and population dynamics under anticipated restoration and sea level rise scenarios has applications for assessing threats and opportunities for different conservation strategies and can assist NPS, other natural resource managers, and restoration planners in making long-term management decisions for this endangered bird.
