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Forecasting Biological Vulnerabilities: Modeling Jamaica Bay Wetland Morphology under Future Hurricanes

Completed
By Wetland and Aquatic Research Center April 7, 2016

In light of the increase in hurricane frequency and intensity, there is concern about the resilience and sustainability of coastal wetlands. Models can be used to investigatethe impacts of future hurricanes on wetland morphology along the northeast coasts in areas like Jamaica Bay, New York, an area impacted by Hurricane Sandy. 

 

Figure 1. Marsh loss in Jamaica Bay. (Source: Hartig et al., 2002; Rafferty et al., 2011)
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Figure 1. Marsh loss in Jamaica Bay. (Source: Hartig et al., 2002; Rafferty et al., 2011)

Science Issue and Relevance: Concerns have risen about resilience and sustainability of coastal wetlands, including those of Jamaica Bay, New York (Figure 1), resulting from hurricane frequency and intensity changes. Hurricanes play a critical role in sediment transport, deposition, and erosion on wetlands that affect morphology, thereby affecting resilience and sustainability of coastal wetlands. In a related Hurricane Sandy study (Sandy Round 1 project), we developed a process-driven hurricane-wetland numerical modeling system for Jamaica Bay, New York, to examine the impacts of Hurricane Sandy (landfall along the east coast on October 30, 2012) on the dynamics of wetland morphology. Preliminary results showed that simulated wind speed, wind direction, and water level agree reasonably well with observations. Numerical experiments using this integrated modeling system showed that waves and vegetation play an important role on sediment transport, deposition, erosion, and associated wetland morphology.

Methodology for Addressing the Issue: In this research (Sandy Round 2 project), USGS and collaborators are applying the process-driven hurricane-wetland numerical modeling system (Sandy Round 1 project) to examine wind, waves, storm surge, hydrodynamics, sediment transport, and wetland morphology dynamics due to future hypothetic hurricanes with various paths, intensity, and duration that are selected based on synthesis of historical major hurricanes (Figure 2). The model is being calibrated and validated against field observations including surface elevation data, sediment properties (e.g., grain size distribution), and deposition/erosion patterns from sediment cores collected in the Bay and 12 salt marsh sites. Once calibrated and validated by field observations, this model can be used to investigate impacts of future hurricanes on wetland morphology along the northeast coast including salt marshes in Jamaica Bay.

Figure 2. Historical major hurricanes ≥ Category 3. (Source: NOAA National Hurricane Center)
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Figure 2. Historical major hurricanes ≥ Category 3. (Source: NOAA National Hurricane Center)

Future Steps: This research is underway. No additional steps planned.

Location of the Study: 40°36’40.16’’N, 73°50’ 28.48’’W

In light of the increase in hurricane frequency and intensity, there is concern about the resilience and sustainability of coastal wetlands. Models can be used to investigatethe impacts of future hurricanes on wetland morphology along the northeast coasts in areas like Jamaica Bay, New York, an area impacted by Hurricane Sandy. 

 

Figure 1. Marsh loss in Jamaica Bay. (Source: Hartig et al., 2002; Rafferty et al., 2011)
Sources/Usage: Some content may have restrictions. View Media Details
Figure 1. Marsh loss in Jamaica Bay. (Source: Hartig et al., 2002; Rafferty et al., 2011)

Science Issue and Relevance: Concerns have risen about resilience and sustainability of coastal wetlands, including those of Jamaica Bay, New York (Figure 1), resulting from hurricane frequency and intensity changes. Hurricanes play a critical role in sediment transport, deposition, and erosion on wetlands that affect morphology, thereby affecting resilience and sustainability of coastal wetlands. In a related Hurricane Sandy study (Sandy Round 1 project), we developed a process-driven hurricane-wetland numerical modeling system for Jamaica Bay, New York, to examine the impacts of Hurricane Sandy (landfall along the east coast on October 30, 2012) on the dynamics of wetland morphology. Preliminary results showed that simulated wind speed, wind direction, and water level agree reasonably well with observations. Numerical experiments using this integrated modeling system showed that waves and vegetation play an important role on sediment transport, deposition, erosion, and associated wetland morphology.

Methodology for Addressing the Issue: In this research (Sandy Round 2 project), USGS and collaborators are applying the process-driven hurricane-wetland numerical modeling system (Sandy Round 1 project) to examine wind, waves, storm surge, hydrodynamics, sediment transport, and wetland morphology dynamics due to future hypothetic hurricanes with various paths, intensity, and duration that are selected based on synthesis of historical major hurricanes (Figure 2). The model is being calibrated and validated against field observations including surface elevation data, sediment properties (e.g., grain size distribution), and deposition/erosion patterns from sediment cores collected in the Bay and 12 salt marsh sites. Once calibrated and validated by field observations, this model can be used to investigate impacts of future hurricanes on wetland morphology along the northeast coast including salt marshes in Jamaica Bay.

Figure 2. Historical major hurricanes ≥ Category 3. (Source: NOAA National Hurricane Center)
Sources/Usage: Some content may have restrictions. View Media Details
Figure 2. Historical major hurricanes ≥ Category 3. (Source: NOAA National Hurricane Center)

Future Steps: This research is underway. No additional steps planned.

Location of the Study: 40°36’40.16’’N, 73°50’ 28.48’’W

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