The USGS is working with the Peninsular Florida Landscape Conservation Cooperative to develop forecast models that integrate potential impacts from external drivers for selected conservation targets and priority resources.
The Science Issue and Relevance: Peninsular Florida has a high density of species and ecosystems of conservation concern, as well as many threats to the persistence of native species and their habitats, including high population growth, increasing urbanization, a changing climate, and sea level rise. The Peninsular Florida Landscape Conservation Cooperative (PFLCC) has been in the process of determining a set of conservation targets that include desired species and landscape-scale outcomes to help meet conservation goals in Florida’s changing environment. The PFLCC is now interested in developing forecast models that integrate potential impacts from external drivers such as sea level rise and urbanization.
Methodology for Addressing the Issue:
We will work closely with the PFLCC Science Coordinators to determine which conservation targets and priority resources to model. Workshops have been held throughout the state over the last couple of years to determine targets, and a draft list has been created. Examples of these targets include Gopher Tortoise habitat, landscape connectivity, and hydrologic regime. We will use the draft list as a basis for discussions with the PFLCC Science Coordinators to determine a potential suite of species habitats and landscape indicators for model development. We will identify areas that share characteristics with current priority resources, and therefore have potential to serve as additional habitat for conservation targets.
Future Steps:
To understand potential future impacts of sea level rise and urbanization on the target species and habitats, we plan to use the same urbanization and sea level rise scenarios used in other PFLCC conservation-planning exercises. These models will identify the extent of potential threats to conservation targets and provide the PFLCC with a foundation for the assessment and monitoring of natural resources, a framework for prioritizing conservation efforts, and information for communicating priorities.
Below are other science projects associated with this project.
Joint Ecosystem Modeling: Cape Sable Seaside Sparrow Helper
Joint Ecosystem Modeling: Cape Sable Seaside Sparrow Marl Prairie Indicator
Joint Ecosystem Modeling: EverSnail
Joint Ecosystem Modeling: Alligator Production Probability Model
Socio-Ecological Conservation Targets for the Peninsular Florida Landscape Conservation Cooperative
Peninsular Florida Landscape Conservation Cooperative (PFLCC) Climate Scenarios and Species Vulnerability Assessment
- Overview
The USGS is working with the Peninsular Florida Landscape Conservation Cooperative to develop forecast models that integrate potential impacts from external drivers for selected conservation targets and priority resources.
The Science Issue and Relevance: Peninsular Florida has a high density of species and ecosystems of conservation concern, as well as many threats to the persistence of native species and their habitats, including high population growth, increasing urbanization, a changing climate, and sea level rise. The Peninsular Florida Landscape Conservation Cooperative (PFLCC) has been in the process of determining a set of conservation targets that include desired species and landscape-scale outcomes to help meet conservation goals in Florida’s changing environment. The PFLCC is now interested in developing forecast models that integrate potential impacts from external drivers such as sea level rise and urbanization.
Sources/Usage: Public Domain.Map showing the boundaries of the three Southeastern Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCC). Gulf Coast Prairie and Ozarks LCC and South Atlantic LCC are shown in light gray. The study area, Peninsular Florida LCC, is shown with diagonal lines. Methodology for Addressing the Issue:
We will work closely with the PFLCC Science Coordinators to determine which conservation targets and priority resources to model. Workshops have been held throughout the state over the last couple of years to determine targets, and a draft list has been created. Examples of these targets include Gopher Tortoise habitat, landscape connectivity, and hydrologic regime. We will use the draft list as a basis for discussions with the PFLCC Science Coordinators to determine a potential suite of species habitats and landscape indicators for model development. We will identify areas that share characteristics with current priority resources, and therefore have potential to serve as additional habitat for conservation targets.
Sources/Usage: Public Domain.Example model ouput shown in EverVIEW. Future Steps:
To understand potential future impacts of sea level rise and urbanization on the target species and habitats, we plan to use the same urbanization and sea level rise scenarios used in other PFLCC conservation-planning exercises. These models will identify the extent of potential threats to conservation targets and provide the PFLCC with a foundation for the assessment and monitoring of natural resources, a framework for prioritizing conservation efforts, and information for communicating priorities.
- Science
Below are other science projects associated with this project.
Joint Ecosystem Modeling: Cape Sable Seaside Sparrow Helper
The Sparrow Helper tool allows for the evaluation of water management scenarios by generating, plotting, and mapping hydrologic metrics across a range of time scales to predict impacts of proposed water depth changes to sparrow subpopulations.Joint Ecosystem Modeling: Cape Sable Seaside Sparrow Marl Prairie Indicator
Marl prairie is the most diverse freshwater vegetation community in the Greater Everglades and provides the only suitable habitat for the federally endangered Cape Sable seaside sparrow (CSSS; Ammodramus maritimus mirabilis).Joint Ecosystem Modeling: EverSnail
EverSnail, developed in collaboration with the University of West Florida, is an age- and size-structured spatially-explicit landscape model of native apple snails (Pomacea paludosa).Joint Ecosystem Modeling: Alligator Production Probability Model
Because the American alligator (Alligator mississippiensis) is a keystone species of the Everglades ecosystem, managers need a way to quantitatively assess the effects of alternative restoration scenarios on alligators.Socio-Ecological Conservation Targets for the Peninsular Florida Landscape Conservation Cooperative
Peninsular Florida has a high density of species and ecosystems of conservation concern, as well as many threats to the persistence of native species and their habitats. USGS worked closely with the Peninsular Florida Landscape Conservation Cooperative to define conservation targets to help meet conservation goals.Peninsular Florida Landscape Conservation Cooperative (PFLCC) Climate Scenarios and Species Vulnerability Assessment
Peninsular Florida is one of the most vulnerable regions to climate change in the United States. With complex socioeconomic and ecology dynamics and a large number of governing agencies involved in conservation planning, USGS worked to created an appropriate framework for landscape conservation cooperative-scale decision-making across current conservation planning agencies and jurisdictions.