Understanding Ecosystem Response and Infrastructure Vulnerability to Sea-Level Rise for Several National Parks and Preserves in the South Atlantic-Gulf Region Active
USGS Researchers at the Wetland and Aquatic Research Center and the St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center will provide valuable information to natural resource managers on how important coastal ecosystems in the National Park Service South Atlantic-Gulf Region may change over time. This information could assist with future-focused land management and stewardship.
The Science Issue and Relevance: During this century, accelerated sea-level rise (SLR) will impact habitats across the entire coastal zone, including oyster reefs, intertidal mudflats, and estuarine marshes, along with upslope habitats, such as forested wetlands, freshwater marshes, and upland forests and grasslands. Natural resource managers require information on how these important coastal ecosystems may change over time to assist with future-focused land management and stewardship. This is especially the case for coastal parks, preserves, and sites in the National Park Service (NPS) System.
High-resolution elevation data provide a foundational layer needed to understand regional hydrology and ecology under present and future conditions. Over the past 20 years, light detection and ranging (lidar) technology has transformed our ability to monitor elevation and topography through time via the development of periodic high-resolution digital elevation models (DEMs). However, elevation bias is typically unknown in wetlands, and can be substantial, especially in densely vegetated areas. While DEM products often provide an elevation uncertainty in the product metadata, these estimates typically are not representative of vertical uncertainty in wetlands. Understanding elevation uncertainty in lidar data and accounting for the error is an important first step for producing or refining static or hydrodynamic models to estimate contemporary and future water surface levels and predicting future ecologic shifts, such as upslope migration of tidal marsh.
In addition to understanding the ecosystem response to SLR, it is equally important to understand the vulnerability of cultural resources on public lands to these changing conditions. For example, contemporary and future nuisance flooding is expected to be a major problem for infrastructure in low-lying coastal areas. A corrected DEM can be used to develop static inundation models that provide a first-cut approximation for predicting flooding on low-lying public lands.
Methodology for Addressing the Issue: This project is funded through the U.S. Geological Survey and the NPS Natural Resources Preservation Program (NRPP). The focal area for this project will be Timucuan Ecological and Historic Preserve (TIMU) in Jacksonville, Florida. For this preserve, the project will include the following objectives:
1. Survey elevation and vegetation in intertidal wetlands.
2. Monitor the tidal signature in interior wetlands using water level loggers.
3. Correct the best available lidar-based DEM.
4. Using the corrected DEM, develop a first-cut approximation of the probability of being inundated under various water levels for several relative SLR scenarios.
5. Quantify and depict potential marsh migration in and around TIMU for several alternative relative SLR scenarios.
This project will also address needs at several other NPS units (i.e., NPS Parks, Preserves, or Sites) in the NPS South Atlantic-Gulf Region, including Big Cypress National Preserve, Biscayne National Park, De Soto National Memorial Park, Dry Tortugas National Park, and San Juan National Historic Site. For these NPS units, the project will address the following singular objective:
1. Using the best available elevation data, develop maps showing the first-cut approximation of inundation probability for several relative SLR scenarios and/or nuisance flooding levels.
The major steps in this project will include: (1) collecting field data on vegetation, elevation, and hydrology; (2) correcting a new DEM using field data; (3) developing data layers showing the probability of an area being inundated under various water levels for several alternative regional relative SLR scenarios; (4) assessing upslope migration potential for estuarine wetlands; and (5) conducting inundation analyses for non-focal NPS units.
Future Steps: The corrected DEM for the TIMU could be used to refine marsh productivity, marsh loss, and migration estimates by rerunning an existing hydrodynamic marsh equilibrium model. The inundation analyses for non-focal NPS Parks/Preserves may highlight the need for more detailed efforts.
Hydro-marsh equilibrium modeling in the northern Gulf of Mexico
The Response of Coastal Wetlands to Sea-level Rise: Understanding how Macroscale Drivers Influence Local Processes and Feedbacks
Mapping High Marsh along the Northern Gulf of Mexico Coast
- Overview
USGS Researchers at the Wetland and Aquatic Research Center and the St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center will provide valuable information to natural resource managers on how important coastal ecosystems in the National Park Service South Atlantic-Gulf Region may change over time. This information could assist with future-focused land management and stewardship.
The Science Issue and Relevance: During this century, accelerated sea-level rise (SLR) will impact habitats across the entire coastal zone, including oyster reefs, intertidal mudflats, and estuarine marshes, along with upslope habitats, such as forested wetlands, freshwater marshes, and upland forests and grasslands. Natural resource managers require information on how these important coastal ecosystems may change over time to assist with future-focused land management and stewardship. This is especially the case for coastal parks, preserves, and sites in the National Park Service (NPS) System.
High-resolution elevation data provide a foundational layer needed to understand regional hydrology and ecology under present and future conditions. Over the past 20 years, light detection and ranging (lidar) technology has transformed our ability to monitor elevation and topography through time via the development of periodic high-resolution digital elevation models (DEMs). However, elevation bias is typically unknown in wetlands, and can be substantial, especially in densely vegetated areas. While DEM products often provide an elevation uncertainty in the product metadata, these estimates typically are not representative of vertical uncertainty in wetlands. Understanding elevation uncertainty in lidar data and accounting for the error is an important first step for producing or refining static or hydrodynamic models to estimate contemporary and future water surface levels and predicting future ecologic shifts, such as upslope migration of tidal marsh.
In addition to understanding the ecosystem response to SLR, it is equally important to understand the vulnerability of cultural resources on public lands to these changing conditions. For example, contemporary and future nuisance flooding is expected to be a major problem for infrastructure in low-lying coastal areas. A corrected DEM can be used to develop static inundation models that provide a first-cut approximation for predicting flooding on low-lying public lands.
Sources/Usage: Public Domain. View Media DetailsPhoto of Horseshoe Creek taken in 2013 from the Cedar Point Boat Launch at Timucuan Ecological and Historic Preserve in Jacksonville, Florida. (Source: National Park Service/public domain). Methodology for Addressing the Issue: This project is funded through the U.S. Geological Survey and the NPS Natural Resources Preservation Program (NRPP). The focal area for this project will be Timucuan Ecological and Historic Preserve (TIMU) in Jacksonville, Florida. For this preserve, the project will include the following objectives:
1. Survey elevation and vegetation in intertidal wetlands.
2. Monitor the tidal signature in interior wetlands using water level loggers.
3. Correct the best available lidar-based DEM.
4. Using the corrected DEM, develop a first-cut approximation of the probability of being inundated under various water levels for several relative SLR scenarios.
5. Quantify and depict potential marsh migration in and around TIMU for several alternative relative SLR scenarios.
This project will also address needs at several other NPS units (i.e., NPS Parks, Preserves, or Sites) in the NPS South Atlantic-Gulf Region, including Big Cypress National Preserve, Biscayne National Park, De Soto National Memorial Park, Dry Tortugas National Park, and San Juan National Historic Site. For these NPS units, the project will address the following singular objective:
1. Using the best available elevation data, develop maps showing the first-cut approximation of inundation probability for several relative SLR scenarios and/or nuisance flooding levels.
The major steps in this project will include: (1) collecting field data on vegetation, elevation, and hydrology; (2) correcting a new DEM using field data; (3) developing data layers showing the probability of an area being inundated under various water levels for several alternative regional relative SLR scenarios; (4) assessing upslope migration potential for estuarine wetlands; and (5) conducting inundation analyses for non-focal NPS units.
Future Steps: The corrected DEM for the TIMU could be used to refine marsh productivity, marsh loss, and migration estimates by rerunning an existing hydrodynamic marsh equilibrium model. The inundation analyses for non-focal NPS Parks/Preserves may highlight the need for more detailed efforts.
Sources/Usage: Public Domain. View Media DetailsNational Park Service (NPS) units (i.e., NPS Parks, Preserves, or Sites) from the NPS South Atlantic-Gulf Region studied in this project. - Science
Hydro-marsh equilibrium modeling in the northern Gulf of Mexico
The Response of Coastal Wetlands to Sea-level Rise: Understanding how Macroscale Drivers Influence Local Processes and Feedbacks
The purpose of this work is to advance our understanding of how coastal wetland responses to sea-level rise (SLR) within the conterminous United States are likely to vary as a function of local, regional, and macroscale drivers, including climate. Based on our interactions with managers and decision makers, as well as our knowledge of the current state of the science, we propose to: (a) conduct a...Mapping High Marsh along the Northern Gulf of Mexico Coast
USGS is collaborating with Mississippi State University to investigate the effects of fire on Gulf of Mexico marshes. The project will include mapping high marsh and monitoring black rail, yellow rail, and mottled duck responses to prescribed fire application.