My research is focused on developing integrated modeling approaches to assess the dynamic effects of sea level rise on coastal environments and to inform management decision-making.
Davina Passeri is a Research Oceanographer at the U.S. Geological Survey. Her research is concentrated in numerical modeling of tides, waves, hurricane storm surge and barrier island morphology to understand how the coast may evolve in the future under drivers such as extreme storms and sea level rise. She is involved in research projects focused on:
- Dynamic effects of sea level rise on coastal hydrodynamics and morphology
- Short- and long-term barrier island evolution
- Estuarine and marsh evolution
- Transdisciplinary biogeophysical assessments
- Restoration assessments to enhance coastal resilience
The results from her work are used to improve the scientific knowledge on the effects of short- and long-term drivers in coastal evolution and to inform coastal management decision-making.
Education and Certifications
B.S. Civil Engineering, University of Notre Dame, 2010
Ph.D. Civil Engineering, University of Central Florida, 2015
Mendenhall Post-Doctoral Fellow, U.S. Geological Survey, 2015-2017
Science and Products
Understanding Ecosystem Response and Infrastructure Vulnerability to Sea-Level Rise for Several National Parks and Preserves in the South Atlantic-Gulf Region
Coastal Resource Evaluation for Management Application (CREMA)
Estuarine and MaRsh Geology Research Project
Alabama Barrier Island Restoration Assessment
Atlantic and Gulf Coast Sandy Coastline Topo-Bathy Profile and Characteristic Database
Assessing the Northeastern Gulf of Mexico Microtidal Wetland System Change in the Apalachicola-Big-Bend Region Under Sea-Level-Rise: Model Inputs and Outputs
Single-Beam Bathymetry Data Collected in March 2021 from Grand Bay and Point Aux Chenes Bay, Mississippi/Alabama
Assessing the Effectiveness of Nourishment in Decadal Barrier Island Morphological Resilience: Model Inputs and Outputs
Idealized Antecedent Topography Sensitivity Study: Initial Baseline and Modified Profiles Modeled with XBeach
Effects of Late Holocene Climate and Coastal Change in Mobile Bay, Alabama: ADCIRC Model Input and Results
Mobile Harbor Navigation Channel Delft3D Model Inputs and Results
Dauphin Island Storms and Sea Level Rise Assessment: XBeach Model Inputs and Results
XBeach Bottom Friction Scenarios: Model Inputs and Results
Estuarine Shoreline and Sandline Change Model Skill and Predicted Probabilities
Integrated modeling of dynamic marsh feedbacks and evolution under sea-level rise in a mesotidal estuary (Plum Island, MA, USA)
Database of topo-bathy cross-shore profiles and characteristics for the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico sandy coastlines
The potential of wave energy conversion to mitigate coastal erosion from hurricanes
Impacts of sediment removal from and placement in coastal barrier island systems
Executive SummaryOn June 24, 2019, Congressman Raul Grijalva of Arizona, Chair of the House Committee on Natural Resources, sent a letter to the directors of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and the U.S. Geological Survey to request their assistance in answering questions regarding coastal sediment resource management within the Coastal Barrier Resources System as defined by the Coastal Barrier
Assessing the effectiveness of nourishment in decadal barrier island morphological resilience
Development and application of an empirical dune growth model for evaluating barrier island recovery from storms
Sensitivity of storm response to antecedent topography in the XBeach model
The roles of storminess and sea level rise in decadal barrier island evolution
Using multiple environmental proxies and hydrodynamic modeling to investigate Late Holocene climate and coastal change within a large Gulf of Mexico estuarine system (Mobile Bay, Alabama, USA)
Development of a modeling framework for predicting decadal barrier island evolution
Combining numerical and statistical models to predict storm-induced dune erosion
Surrogate model development for coastal dune erosion under storm conditions
Non-USGS Publications**
**Disclaimer: The views expressed in Non-USGS publications are those of the author and do not represent the views of the USGS, Department of the Interior, or the U.S. Government.
Science and Products
- Science
Understanding Ecosystem Response and Infrastructure Vulnerability to Sea-Level Rise for Several National Parks and Preserves in the South Atlantic-Gulf Region
USGS Researchers at the Wetland and Aquatic Research Center and the St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center will provide valuable information to natural resource managers on how important coastal ecosystems in the National Park Service South Atlantic-Gulf Region may change over time. This information could assist with future-focused land management and stewardship.Coastal Resource Evaluation for Management Application (CREMA)
Coastal environments are dynamic systems that provide high ecological, economical, recreational, and cultural value. Managing coastal systems requires a comprehensive understanding of the complex interactions between geological and ecological processes, as well as the ability to predict both the near-term and long-term impacts of storms and sea-level rise. The Coastal Resource Evaluation for...Estuarine and MaRsh Geology Research Project
The goal of the Estuarine and MaRsh Geology (EMRG) Research Project is to study how and where short- and long-term marsh and estuarine coastal processes interact, how they influence coastal accretion or erosion, and how they pre-condition a marsh’s resiliency to storms, sea-level change, and human alterations along the northern Gulf of Mexico (Grand Bay and Point aux Chenes, Mississippi and St...Alabama Barrier Island Restoration Assessment
This project is a collaborative effort between the USGS, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), and the State of Alabama funded by National Fish and Wildlife Foundation (NFWF) to investigate viable, sustainable restoration options that protect and restore the natural resources of Dauphin Island, Alabama. The project is focused on restoration options that protect and restore habitat and living... - Data
Atlantic and Gulf Coast Sandy Coastline Topo-Bathy Profile and Characteristic Database
Seamless topographic-bathymetric (topo-bathy) profiles and their derived morphologic characteristics were developed for sandy coastlines along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts of the United States. The topo-bathy profiles are published as a database in the Hierarchical Data Format version 5 (HDF5) which contain cross-shore distance coordinates, Universe Transverse Mercator (UTM) coordinate system EastAssessing the Northeastern Gulf of Mexico Microtidal Wetland System Change in the Apalachicola-Big-Bend Region Under Sea-Level-Rise: Model Inputs and Outputs
Using the Hydrodynamic-Marsh Equilibrium Model (Hydro-MEM), the wetlands system within the Apalachicola-Big-Bend region of Florida (FL) (Fig. 1) was assessed using three sea-level rise scenarios of intermediate-low (50 centimeters [cm] by 2100), intermediate (1 meter [m] by 2100), and intermediate-high (1.5 m by 2100) from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Hydro-MEM inputSingle-Beam Bathymetry Data Collected in March 2021 from Grand Bay and Point Aux Chenes Bay, Mississippi/Alabama
Scientists from the U.S. Geological Survey St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center in St. Petersburg, Florida (USGS - SPCSMC), conducted a single-beam bathymetry survey within Grand Bay and Point Aux Chenes Bay, Mississippi/Alabama, from March 3-6, 2021. Efforts were supported by the Estuarine and MaRsh Geology project (EMRG), and the data described will provide baseline bathymetric inforAssessing the Effectiveness of Nourishment in Decadal Barrier Island Morphological Resilience: Model Inputs and Outputs
The effectiveness of nourishment in decadal barrier island morphological resilience was assessed using the XBeach model to simulate morphologic change over a 30-year period at Dauphin Island, AL, under scenarios of no-action and beach and dune nourishment, as described in Passeri et al., 2021. The 30-year simulation used a storm climatology developed for the region based on synthetic tropical cyclIdealized Antecedent Topography Sensitivity Study: Initial Baseline and Modified Profiles Modeled with XBeach
The one-dimensional model inputs of idealized topography and bathymetry values for simulation of synthetic storm evolution with XBeach, as described in Mickey and others (2020) are provided here. The idealized topography and bathymetry were derived from LiDAR data from Dauphin Island, AL, USA over the timespan of 2005 to 2015. For further information regarding model input generation of topographyEffects of Late Holocene Climate and Coastal Change in Mobile Bay, Alabama: ADCIRC Model Input and Results
Using the numerical model ADCIRC, astronomic tides were simulated at Mobile Bay, Alabama under scenarios of Holocene geomorphic configurations representing the period of 3500 to 2300 years before present including a breach in the Morgan Peninsula and a land bridge at Pass aux Herons (see Figure 1), as described in Smith and others, 2020. Model inputs in the form of topography and bathymetry and moMobile Harbor Navigation Channel Delft3D Model Inputs and Results
The Delft3D model inputs and outputs of bed levels resulting from the simulations of proposed navigation channel deepening and widening in Mobile Harbor, Alabama, as described in USGS Open-File Report 2018-1123, are provided here. For further information regarding model input generation and visualization of model output elevations, refer to USGS Open-File Report 2018-1123.Dauphin Island Storms and Sea Level Rise Assessment: XBeach Model Inputs and Results
XBeach was used to simulate hurricanes Ivan (2004) and Katrina (2005) at Dauphin Island, Alabama, under present-day conditions and future sea level rise (SLR) scenarios as described in Passeri and others, 2018. Model inputs and outputs in the form of topography and bathymetry are provided here. For further information regarding model input generation and visualization of model output topography anXBeach Bottom Friction Scenarios: Model Inputs and Results
Various bottom friction scenarios were simulated for hurricanes Ivan and Katrina at Dauphin Island, AL, using XBeach, as described in Passeri and others, 2017. Model inputs and outputs in the form of topography are provided here. For further information regarding model input generation and visualization of model output topography and bathymetry, refer to Passeri and others, 2017. Passeri, D.L., LEstuarine Shoreline and Sandline Change Model Skill and Predicted Probabilities
The Barrier Island and Estuarine Wetland Physical Change Assessment was created to calibrate and test probability models of barrier island estuarine shoreline and sandline change for study areas in Virginia, Maryland, and New Jersey. The models examined the influence of hydrologic and physical variables related to long-term and event-driven (Hurricane Sandy) estuarine back-barrier shoreline and ov - Publications
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Integrated modeling of dynamic marsh feedbacks and evolution under sea-level rise in a mesotidal estuary (Plum Island, MA, USA)
Around the world, wetland vulnerability to sea-level rise (SLR) depends on different factors including tidal regimes, topography, creeks and estuary geometry, sediment availability, vegetation type, etc. The Plum Island estuary (PIE) is a mesotidal wetland system on the east coast of the United States. This research applied a newly updated Hydro-MEM (integrated hydrodynamic-marsh) model to assessDatabase of topo-bathy cross-shore profiles and characteristics for the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico sandy coastlines
A database of seamless topographic and bathymetric cross-shore profiles along with metrics of the associated morphological characteristics based on the latest available lidar data ranging from 2011–2020 and bathymetry from the Continuously Updated Digital Elevation Model was developed for U.S. Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico open-ocean sandy coastlines. Cross-shore resolution ranges from 2.5 m for topThe potential of wave energy conversion to mitigate coastal erosion from hurricanes
Wave energy conversion technologies have recently attracted more attention as part of global efforts to replace fossil fuels with renewable energy resources. While ocean waves can provide renewable energy, they can also be destructive to coastal areas that are often densely populated and vulnerable to coastal erosion. There have been a variety of efforts to mitigate the impacts of wave- and storm-Impacts of sediment removal from and placement in coastal barrier island systems
Executive SummaryOn June 24, 2019, Congressman Raul Grijalva of Arizona, Chair of the House Committee on Natural Resources, sent a letter to the directors of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and the U.S. Geological Survey to request their assistance in answering questions regarding coastal sediment resource management within the Coastal Barrier Resources System as defined by the Coastal Barrier
Assessing the effectiveness of nourishment in decadal barrier island morphological resilience
Nourishment has shown to be an effective method for short-term storm protection along barrier islands and sandy beaches by reducing flooding, wave attack and erosion. However, the ability of nourishment to mitigate the effects of storms and sea level rise (SLR) and improve coastal resilience over decadal time scales is not well understood. This study uses integrated models of storm-driven hydrodynDevelopment and application of an empirical dune growth model for evaluating barrier island recovery from storms
Coastal zone managers require models that predict barrier island change on decadal time scales to estimate coastal vulnerability, and plan habitat restoration and coastal protection projects. To meet these needs, methods must be available for predicting dune recovery as well as dune erosion. In the present study, an empirical dune growth model (EDGR) was developed to predict the evolution of the pSensitivity of storm response to antecedent topography in the XBeach model
Antecedent topography is an important aspect of coastal morphology when studying and forecasting coastal change hazards. The uncertainty in morphologic response of storm-impact models and their use in short-term hazard forecasting and decadal forecasting is important to account for when considering a coupled model framework. This study provided a methodology to investigate uncertainty of profile rThe roles of storminess and sea level rise in decadal barrier island evolution
Models of alongshore sediment transport during quiescent conditions, storm‐driven barrier island morphology, and poststorm dune recovery are integrated to assess decadal barrier island evolution under scenarios of increased sea levels and variability in storminess (intensity and frequency). Model results indicate barrier island response regimes of keeping pace, narrowing, flattening, deflation (naUsing multiple environmental proxies and hydrodynamic modeling to investigate Late Holocene climate and coastal change within a large Gulf of Mexico estuarine system (Mobile Bay, Alabama, USA)
A high degree of uncertainty exists for understanding and predicting coastal estuarine response to changing climate, land-use, and sea-level conditions, leaving geologic records as a best-proxy for constraining potential outcomes. With the majority of the world's population focused in coastal regions, understanding how local systems respond to global, regional, and even local pressures is key in dDevelopment of a modeling framework for predicting decadal barrier island evolution
Predicting the decadal evolution of barrier island systems is important for coastal managers who propose restoration or preservation alternatives aimed at increasing the resiliency of the island and its associated habitats or communities. Existing numerical models for simulating morphologic changes typically include either long-term (for example, longshore transport under quiescent conditions) orCombining numerical and statistical models to predict storm-induced dune erosion
Dune erosion is an important aspect to consider when assessing coastal flood risk, as dune elevation loss makes the protected areas more susceptible to flooding. However, most advanced dune erosion numerical models are computationally expensive, which hinders their application in early-warning systems. Based on a combination of probabilistic and process-based numerical modeling, we develop an effiSurrogate model development for coastal dune erosion under storm conditions
Early coastal dune erosion predictions are essential to avoid potential flood consequences but most dune erosion numerical models are computationally expensive, hence their application in Early Warning Systems is limited. Here, based on a combination of optimally sampled synthetic sea storms with a calibrated and validated XBeach model, we develop a surrogate model capable of producing fast and acNon-USGS Publications**
Passeri, D.L., Hagen, S.C., Medeiros, S.C., and Bilskie, M.V., 2015, Impacts of historic morphology and sea level rise on tidal hydrodynamics in a microtidal estuary (Grand Bay, Mississippi): Continental Shelf Research, v. 111, part B, p. 150–158, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.csr.2015.08.001.**Disclaimer: The views expressed in Non-USGS publications are those of the author and do not represent the views of the USGS, Department of the Interior, or the U.S. Government.
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