Vulnerability of Mole Skinks to Sea-Level Rise
Mole skinks that occur on Florida’s islands rely on sand beaches, beach berms, and dunes, making them particularly vulnerable to sea level rise and storm surge. USGS researchers predicted the impacts of sea level rise and storm surge on habitat for the Florida Keys mole skink (Plestiodon egregius egregius), the Cedar Key mole skink (P. e. insularis), and the Egmont Key mole skink (known from a single occurrence).
The Science Issue and Relevance: Island ecosystems are some of the most biodiverse places on earth, but they are extremely threatened by sea level rise and storm surge. The Florida Keys mole skink, the Cedar Key mole skink, and the Egmont Key mole skink are imperiled subspecies that occur only on a relatively small number of islands off the Gulf Coast of Florida, USA. Mole skinks spend much of their time under the loose sandy soil of these low-lying islands, making them vulnerable to sea level rise and storm surge.
Methodology for Addressing the Issue: WARC researchers used the most recent sea level rise projections from 2030 – 2150, the latest storm surge simulation data, high resolution lidar-based digital elevation models, and a combination of comprehensive land cover and hand-digitized aerial imagery to predict impacts to habitat for the Florida Keys mole skink and the Cedar Key mole skink. Researchers also predicted the impacts of sea level rise and storm surge to Egmont Key for the possibility that the population of mole skink from this island has not been extirpated.
Future Steps: The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) has recently proposed listing the Florida Keys mole skink as threatened and the Cedar Key mole skink as endangered under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. This project aims to build upon the USFWS’s important work. There remains uncertainty about how species and ecosystems will respond to sea level rise; research to fill these gaps could help mitigate the effects of sea level rise in areas most vulnerable to the effects of changing conditions.
Mole skinks that occur on Florida’s islands rely on sand beaches, beach berms, and dunes, making them particularly vulnerable to sea level rise and storm surge. USGS researchers predicted the impacts of sea level rise and storm surge on habitat for the Florida Keys mole skink (Plestiodon egregius egregius), the Cedar Key mole skink (P. e. insularis), and the Egmont Key mole skink (known from a single occurrence).
The Science Issue and Relevance: Island ecosystems are some of the most biodiverse places on earth, but they are extremely threatened by sea level rise and storm surge. The Florida Keys mole skink, the Cedar Key mole skink, and the Egmont Key mole skink are imperiled subspecies that occur only on a relatively small number of islands off the Gulf Coast of Florida, USA. Mole skinks spend much of their time under the loose sandy soil of these low-lying islands, making them vulnerable to sea level rise and storm surge.
Methodology for Addressing the Issue: WARC researchers used the most recent sea level rise projections from 2030 – 2150, the latest storm surge simulation data, high resolution lidar-based digital elevation models, and a combination of comprehensive land cover and hand-digitized aerial imagery to predict impacts to habitat for the Florida Keys mole skink and the Cedar Key mole skink. Researchers also predicted the impacts of sea level rise and storm surge to Egmont Key for the possibility that the population of mole skink from this island has not been extirpated.
Future Steps: The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) has recently proposed listing the Florida Keys mole skink as threatened and the Cedar Key mole skink as endangered under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. This project aims to build upon the USFWS’s important work. There remains uncertainty about how species and ecosystems will respond to sea level rise; research to fill these gaps could help mitigate the effects of sea level rise in areas most vulnerable to the effects of changing conditions.