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Data Release for 2018 One-Year Seismic Hazard Forecast for the Central and Eastern United States from Induced and Natural Earthquakes

March 14, 2018

We produce the USGS 2018 one-year probabilistic seismic hazard forecast for the central and eastern United States from induced and natural earthquakes. For consistency, the updated 2018 forecast is developed using the same probabilistic seismicity-based methodology as applied in the two previous forecasts for 2016 and 2017. Rates of earthquakes across the U.S. (M ≥ 3.0) grew rapidly between 2008 and 2015 but have steadily declined over the past three years, especially in areas of Oklahoma and southern Kansas where fluid injection has decreased. The seismicity pattern in 2017 was complex with earthquakes more spatially dispersed than in previous years. Some areas of west-central Oklahoma experienced increased activity rates where industrial activity increased. Earthquake rates in Oklahoma (429 earthquakes of M ≥ 3 and 4 M ≥ 4), Raton Basin (Colorado/New Mexico border, 6 earthquakes M ≥ 3 and one M ≥ 4 earthquake), and the New Madrid seismic zone (11 earthquakes M ≥ 3) continue to be higher than historic levels. Fundamental data that were essential in producing the 2018 forecast, such as the seismicity catalog and hazard curve data for peak ground acceleration and 0.2- and 1.0-second horizontal response acceleration versus annual frequency of exceedance are included here. Data that portray: probabilistic earthquake shaking intensity based on the Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) scale, chance of experiencing potentially damaging earthquake shaking, and probabilistic ground motion maps based on this one-year model for the Central and Eastern United States are also available here. For comparison purposes, data portraying the same parameters, but based on the 2014 USGS National Seismic Hazard long-term hazard model are also included for the Western United States.

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