Multidecadal Projections of Ecogeomorphic State Change, North Core Banks, North Carolina: Model Inputs and Outputs

Probabilistic projections of future ecogeomorphic state transitions up to year 2050 were generated using the Mesoscale Explicit Ecogeomorphic Barrier model (MEEB) version 1.1.0 (Reeves, 2024) for North Core Banks (NCB), North Carolina, as described in Reeves and others (2026). These projections spanned a range of future potential high-water event intensity (HWEI; +0, +4, and +8%) and relative sea-level rise (RSLR; 6, 12, and 18 millimeters per year [mm/yr]) scenarios, and also include a full probabilistic projection that accounts for uncertainty in future values of both HWEI and RSLR. MEEB requires initial elevation and vegetation cover for each cell of the model domain as input, and returns data arrays containing the likelihood of each ecogeomorphic state classification (Subaqueous, Shallow Beach, Steep Beach, Dune, Unvegetated Interior, and Vegetated Interior) and predicted overwash (high-water event inundation) count across the model domain as output. These model input and output data are provided in this data release. See Reeves and others (2026) for additional information regarding input generation, output visualization, and descriptions and analysis of the simulation results.

Reeves, I.R.B., 2024, Mesoscale Explicit Ecogeomorphic Barrier Model (MEEB), version 1.1.0: U.S. Geological Survey software release, https://doi.org/10.5066/P13N6RHA.

Reeves, I.R.B., Lentz, E.E., Sherwood, C.R., Ashton, A.D., Zeigler, S.L., and Passeri, D.L., 2026, Exploring future ecogeomorphic state transitions of an undeveloped barrier island: Multidecadal model projections for North Core Banks, NC, USA: Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface, vol. 131, no. 10, https://doi.org/10.1029/2025JF009086.