Erika Lentz, Ph.D.
My research focuses on coastal change due to storms, sea-level rise, and the geology of an area.
Biography
I explore how change varies among different ecosystems and across landscapes, and what makes certain locations more resilient than others. Additionally, I am interested in the meaningful communication of scientific information to support decision-making. Recently these subjects have been addressed in several projects:
- Coastal Landscape Response to Sea-Level Rise Assessment (https://www.usgs.gov/centers/whcmsc/science/coastal-landscape-response-sea-level-rise-assessment-northeastern-united)
- Fire Island Coastal Change (https://www.usgs.gov/centers/spcmsc/science/coastal-system-change-fire-island-new-york).
Science and Products
Coastal Change Hazards
Natural processes such as waves, tides, and weather, continually change coastal landscapes. The integrity of coastal homes, businesses, and infrastructure can be threatened by hazards associated with event-driven changes, such as extreme storms and their impacts on beach and dune erosion, or longer-term, cumulative...
Coastal Change at Fire Island, a geonarrative
For more than two decades the U.S. Geological Survey has been researching Fire Island's offshore, nearshore, and barrier island systems to better understand drivers of coastal change and evolution. This geonarrative delves into how barrier islands change and evolve, demonstrates how seasons, storms and humans change beaches, and explores the role models play in predicting what the beach might...
Coastal System Change at Fire Island, New York
Fire Island is a 50-km long barrier island along the south shore of Long Island, New York. The island is comprised of seventeen year-round communities; federal, state, and county parks; and supports distinct ecosystems alongside areas of economic and cultural value. In addition to providing resources to its residents, the barrier island also protects the heavily-populated mainland from storm...
Probabilistic Framing
The Bayesian statistical framework is ideal for using data sets derived from historical or modern observations such as long-term shoreline change or wetland accretion/elevation trends. This information can be combined with model simulations and used to define the relationships between key variables in coastal environments.
Sea-Level Rise Hazards and Decision Support
The Sea-Level Rise Hazards and Decision-Support project assesses present and future coastal vulnerability to provide actionable information for management of our Nation’s coasts. Through multidisciplinary research and collaborative partnerships with decision-makers, physical, biological, and social factors that describe landscape and habitat changes are incorporated in a...
Breach Evolution - Coastal System Change at Fire Island, New York
In 2012, during Hurricane Sandy, a breach formed in the Otis Pike High Dune Wilderness Area on Fire Island, NY.
Other Storm Impacts - Coastal System Change at Fire Island, New York
Since the late 1990s, USGS has been conducting research to quantify the impact from other hurricanes and nor'easters on the beaches and dunes at Fire Island.
Hurricane Sandy - Coastal System Change at Fire Island, New York
USGS used several techniques to quantify the impacts of Hurricane Sandy on the ocean shoreline of Fire Island.
Storm Impacts - Coastal System Change at Fire Island, New York
Fire Island is vulnerable to considerable storm activity year-round from both hurricanes and nor’easters. Storms are important drivers of coastal change in barrier island settings such as Fire Island. Larger storms carry sediment to the interior of the island via overwash, helping to create new habitat and build island resilience by adding back barrier width and interior elevation. Storms also...
Research Integration - Coastal System Change at Fire Island, New York
In order to predict the future behavior of the Fire Island landscape as a whole, information from across research themes must be integrated.
Predicting Future Beach Change - Coastal System Change at Fire Island, New York
Probabilistic models are used to predict future beach changes at Fire Island. These models, referred to as Bayesian networks, use statistics to estimate probabilities of future beach configurations based on existing observations. Bayesian networks are easily updated with new data or observations, making this approach ideal for use in coastal systems that experience rapid and frequent changes...
Beach Change Envelope - Coastal System Change at Fire Island, New York
Given the unique challenges in quantifying the extensive, yet variable impacts of Hurricane Sandy at Fire Island, we used a time series of beach profile data at Fire Island, New York, to define a new contour-based morphologic change metric, the Beach Change Envelope (BCE).
National Shoreline Change
Exploring Shoreline Positions of the United States From the 1800s To The Present. Beach erosion is a chronic problem for many coastal areas of the United States. This geonarrative explains how the USGS derives shorelines from various data
sources, and how shoreline change rates are generated from these data.
Our Coasts
USGS Coastal Change Hazards research provides scientific tools to protect lives, property, and the economic well being of the Nation. The mission of the USGS Coastal Change Hazards Program is to provide research and tools to protect lives, property, and the economic well-being of the Nation. This is a story map that introduces the value of our coasts and the threats they face with global change.
Topographic, imagery, and raw data associated with unmanned aerial systems (UAS) flights over Black Beach, Falmouth, Massachusetts on 18 March 2016
The U.S. Geological Survey worked in collaboration with members of the Marine Biological Laboratory and Woods Hole Analytics at Black Beach, in Falmouth, Massachusetts to explore scientific research demands on UAS technology for topographic and habitat mapping applications.
Probabilistic patterns of inundation and biogeomorphic changes due to sea-level rise along the northeastern U.S. Atlantic coast
ContextCoastal landscapes evolve in response to sea-level rise (SLR) through a variety of geologic processes and ecological feedbacks. When the SLR rate surpasses the rate at which these processes build elevation and drive lateral migration, inundation is likely.ObjectivesTo examine the role of land cover diversity and composition in landscape...
Lentz, Erika E.; Zeigler, Sara L.; Thieler, E. Robert; Plant, Nathaniel G. Relationships between regional coastal land cover distributions and elevation reveal data uncertainty in a sea-level rise impacts model
Understanding land loss or resilience in response to sea-level rise (SLR) requires spatially extensive and continuous datasets to capture landscape variability. We investigate sensitivity and skill of a model that predicts dynamic response likelihood to SLR across the northeastern U.S. by exploring several data inputs and outcomes. Using...
Lentz, Erika E.; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Thieler, E. Robert A Bayesian approach to predict sub-annual beach change and recovery
The upper beach, between the astronomical high tide and the dune-toe, supports habitat and recreation along many beaches, making predictions of upper beach change valuable to coastal managers and the public. We developed and tested a Bayesian network (BN) to predict the cross-shore position of an upper beach elevation contour (ZlD) following 1...
Wilson, Kathleen; Lentz, Erika E.; Miselis, Jennifer L.; Safak, Ilgar; Brenner, Owen T. Northeast
The distinct seasonality of the Northeast’s climate supports a diverse natural landscape adapted to the extremes of cold, snowy winters and warm to hot, humid summers. This natural landscape provides the economic and cultural foundation for many rural communities, which are largely supported by a diverse range of agricultural, tourism, and natural...
Reidmiller, David; Avery, C. W.; Easterling, D. R.; Kunkel, K. E.; Lewis, K. L. M.; Maycock, T. K.; Stewart, B. C.; Dupigny-Giroux, Lesley-Ann L.; Mecray, Ellen L.; Lemcke-Stampone, Mary D.; Hodgkins, Glenn A.; Lentz, Erika E.; Mills, Katherine E.; Lane, Erin D.; Miller, Rawlings; Hollinger, David Y.; Solecki, William D.; Wellenius, Gregory A.; Sheffield, Perry E.; McDonald, Anthony B.; Caldwell, Christopher
Community for Data Integration fiscal year 2017 funded project report
The U.S. Geological Survey Community for Data Integration annually funds small projects focusing on data integration for interdisciplinary research, innovative data management, and demonstration of new technologies. This report provides a summary of the 11 projects funded in fiscal year 2017, outlining their goals, activities, and outputs.
Hsu, Leslie; Allstadt, Kate E.; Bell, Tara M.; Boydston, Erin E.; Erickson, Richard A.; Everette, A. Lance; Lentz, Erika E.; Peters, Jeff; Reichert, Brian E.; Nagorsen, Sarah; Sherba, Jason T.; Signell, Richard P.; Wiltermuth, Mark; Young, John A. Characterizing storm response and recovery using the beach change envelope: Fire Island, New York
Hurricane Sandy at Fire Island, New York presented unique challenges in the quantification of storm impacts using traditional metrics of coastal change, wherein measured changes (shoreline, dune crest, and volume change) did not fully reflect the substantial changes in sediment redistribution following the storm. We used a time series of beach...
Brenner, Owen T.; Lentz, Erika E.; Hapke, Cheryl J.; Henderson, Rachel; Wilson, Kathleen; Nelson, Timothy UAS-SfM for coastal research: Geomorphic feature extraction and land cover classification from high-resolution elevation and optical imagery
The vulnerability of coastal systems to hazards such as storms and sea-level rise is typically characterized using a combination of ground and manned airborne systems that have limited spatial or temporal scales. Structure-from-motion (SfM) photogrammetry applied to imagery acquired by unmanned aerial systems (UAS) offers a rapid and inexpensive...
Sturdivant, Emily J.; Lentz, Erika E.; Thieler, E. Robert; Farris, Amy S.; Weber, Kathryn M.; Remsen, David P.; Miner, Simon; Henderson, Rachel E. Global and regional sea level rise scenarios for the United States
The Sea Level Rise and Coastal Flood Hazard Scenarios and Tools Interagency Task Force, jointly convened by the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) and the National Ocean Council (NOC), began its work in August 2015. The Task Force has focused its efforts on three primary tasks: 1) updating scenarios of global mean sea level (GMSL) rise,...
Sweet, W.; Kopp, R.E.; Weaver, C.P.; Obeysekera, J; Horton, Radley M.; Thieler, E. Robert; Zervas, C. Evaluation of dynamic coastal response to sea-level rise modifies inundation likelihood
Sea-level rise (SLR) poses a range of threats to natural and built environments1, 2, making assessments of SLR-induced hazards essential for informed decision making3. We develop a probabilistic model that evaluates the likelihood that an area will inundate (flood) or dynamically respond (adapt) to SLR. The broad-area applicability of the approach...
Lentz, Erika E.; Thieler, E. Robert; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Stippa, Sawyer R.; Horton, Radley M.; Gesch, Dean B. Coastal Topography—Fire Island, New York, 07 May 2012
Lidar-derived bare-earth topography Digital Elevation Model (DEM) mosaic and classified point-cloud datasets for Fire Island, New York, were produced from remotely sensed, geographically referenced elevation measurements collected on May 7, 2012.
Fredericks, Alexandra M.; Hapke, Cheryl J.; Lentz, Erika
Evaluating coastal landscape response to sea-level rise in the northeastern United States: approach and methods
The U.S. Geological Survey is examining effects of future sea-level rise on the coastal landscape from Maine to Virginia by producing spatially explicit, probabilistic predictions using sea-level projections, vertical land movement rates (due to isostacy), elevation data, and land-cover data. Sea-level-rise scenarios used as model inputs are...
Lentz, Erika E.; Stippa, Sawyer R.; Thieler, E. Robert; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Gesch, Dean B.; Horton, Radley M. The vertical structure of the circulation and dynamics in Hudson Shelf Valley
Hudson Shelf Valley is a 20–30 m deep, 5–10 km wide v-shaped submarine valley that extends across the Middle Atlantic Bight continental shelf. The valley provides a conduit for cross-shelf exchange via along-valley currents of 0.5 m s−1 or more. Current profile, pressure, and density observations collected during the winter...
Lentz, Steven J.; Butman, Bradford; Harris, Courtney K.
Erika Lentz interview by WBZ Meteorologist, Danielle Niles
Research geologist, Erika Lentz, interviewed on Trunk River Beach, Falmouth, MA, by WBZ meterologist, Danielle Niles, about the future impacts of sea-level rise
Our Nation’s Coasts – Take a Tour
The USGS is excited to present a series of Coastal Change Hazards geonarratives that will take you on a journey to learn more about coastal change and the related research we conduct across our Nation’s coasts.
Challenges of predicting coastal impacts of sea level rise (SLR) in northeastern United States
The impacts of future sea level rise (SLR) are challenging to predict because they are not the same everywhere. Coastal environments and the amount of development vary—from marshes, beaches, and rocky headlands to cities, towns and beach communities—and so does how the coast responds to SLR.
Woods Hole Coastal and Marine Science Center staff contribute to 4th National Climate Assessment
Ocean and coastal ecosystems in the northeast are being affected by large changes in a variety of climate-related environmental conditions.
USGS contributes to the Fourth National Climate Assessment
USGS Research Hydrologist Glenn Hodgkins co-authored the Fourth National Climate Assessment’s Northeast chapter. USGS Research Geologist Erika Lentz was also a co-author. The recently published chapter discusses historical and potential future impacts of climatic changes on New England’s people and natural resources, including it’s inland and coastal waters.
New Products Provide an Interactive Guide to Global and Regional Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the United States
A geo-narrative and accompanying data viewer provide users a new way to visualize 2017 sea-level rise scenarios originally generated for the National Climate Assessment (NCA).
USGS Researchers attend 11th Biennial Science Workshop at Fire Island National Seashore
SPCMSC Research Geologist Jennifer Miselis and WHCMSC Research Geologist Erika Lentz will present USGS research at the 11th Biennial Science Workshop organized by the National Park Service (NPS) Fire Island National Seashore (FIIS).
Up to 70 Percent of Northeast U.S. Coast May Adapt to Rising Seas
Much of the coast from Maine to Virginia is more likely to change than to simply drown in response to rising seas during the next 70 years or so, according to a new study led by the U.S. Geological Survey.