Erika Lentz, Ph.D.
My research focuses on coastal change due to storms, sea-level rise, and the geology of an area.
Biography
I explore how change varies among different ecosystems and across landscapes, and what makes certain locations more resilient than others. Additionally, I am interested in the meaningful communication of scientific information to support decision-making. Recently these subjects have been addressed in several projects:
- Coastal Landscape Response to Sea-Level Rise Assessment (http://woodshole.er.usgs.gov/project-pages/coastal_response/)
- Fire Island Coastal Change (http://coastal.er.usgs.gov/fire-island/).
Selected Publications: (PDF copies of papers are available, please email me: elentz@usgs.gov)
Coastal Landscape Change
Lentz, E.E., Thieler, E.R., Plant, N.P, Stippa, S.R., Horton, R., and Gesch, D.B. (2016). Evaluation of dynamic coastal response to sea-level rise modifies inundation likelihood. Nature Climate Change, doi:10.1038/nclimate2957
Lentz, E.E., Stippa, S.R., Thieler, E.R., Plant, N.G., Gesch, D.B., and Horton, R.M. (2015). Evaluating coastal landscape response to sea-level rise in the northeastern United States—Approach and methods: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2014-1252, http://dx.doi.org/10.3133/ofr20141252.
Lentz, E.E., Stippa, S.R., Thieler, E.R., Plant, N.G., Gesch, D.B., and Horton, R.M. (2015). Coastal landscape response to sea-level rise assessment for the northeastern United States: U.S. Geological Survey data release, http://dx.doi.org/10.5066/F73J3B0B.
Barrier Island Change
Wilson, K.E., Adams, P.N., Hapke, C.J., Lentz, E.E., and Brenner, O. (2015). Application of Bayesian Networks to hindcast barrier island morphodynamics. Coastal Engineering, 102, p. 30-43.
Lentz, E.E., Hapke, C.J., Stockdon, H.S., and Hehre, R.E. (2013). Improving understanding of near-term barrier island evolution through multi-decadal assessment of morphologic change. Marine Geology, 337, p. 125-139.
Schwab, W.C., Baldwin, W.E., Hapke, C.J., Lentz, E.E., Gayes, P.T., Denny, J.F., List, J.H., and Warner, J.C. (2013). Geologic evidence for onshore sediment transport from the inner-continental shelf: Fire Island, New York. Journal of Coastal Research, 29(3), p. 536-544.
Lentz, E.E., and Hapke, C.J. (2011). Geologic framework influences on the geomorphology of an anthropogenically modified barrier island: Assessment of dune/beach changes at Fire Island, New York. Geomorphology, 126, p. 82-96.
Hapke, C.J., Lentz, E.E., Gayes, P.T., McCoy, C.A., Hehre, R., Schwab, W.C., and Williams, S.J.(2010). A review of sediment budget imbalances along Fire Island, New York: can nearshore geologic framework and patterns of shoreline change explain the deficit? Journal of Coastal Research, 26(3), p. 510-522.
Lentz, E.E., and Hapke, C.J., (2011). The development of a probabilistic approach to forecast coastal change. Proceedings of the Coastal Sediments 2011 Conference, May 2-6, Miami, Florida.
Science and Products
Sea Level Change
An interactive guide to global and regional sea level rise scenarios for the United States.
Coastal Landscape Response to Sea-Level Rise Assessment for the Northeastern United States
As part of the USGS Sea-Level Rise Hazards and Decision-Support project, this assessment seeks to predict the response to sea-level rise across the coastal landscape under a range of future scenarios by evaluating the likelihood of inundation as well as dynamic coastal change. The research is being conducted in conjunction with resource managers and decision makers from federal and state...
Sea-Level Rise Hazards and Decision Support
The Sea Level Rise Hazards and Decision Support project assesses the potential impacts of sea level rise and provides tools for coastal management decision making. Historical and recent observations of coastal change are combined with model simulations of coastal environments such as barrier islands, wetlands, and coastal aquifers. A variety of methods including Bayesian...
Beach-dependent Shorebirds
Policy-makers, individuals from government agencies, and natural resource managers are under increasing pressure to manage changing coastal areas to meet social, economic, and natural resource demands, particularly under a regime of sea-level rise. Scientific knowledge of coastal processes and habitat-use can support decision-makers as they balance these often-conflicting human and ecological...
Coastal Landscape- Change Predictions
Sea-level rise (SLR) impacts on the coastal landscape are presented here as: 1) level of landscape submergence (adjusted land elevation with respect to projected mean high water levels); and 2) coastal response type characterized as either static (for example, inundation) or dynamic (for example, landform or landscape change). Results are...
Empowering decision-makers: A dynamic web interface for running Bayesian networks
U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) scientists are at the forefront of research that is critical for decision-making, particularly through the development of models (Bayesian networks, or BNs) that forecast coastal change. The utility of these tools outside the scientific community has been limited because they rely on expensive, technical software and a moderate understanding of statistical...
Mapping Coastal Change Using Unmanned Aerial Systems: A Pilot Study
Beaches and marshes provide critical habitat for many species of concern, including the piping plover, a shorebird which is endangered in parts of its range and threatened in others. These coastal environments also support tourism and recreation, and provide important services such as protecting infrastructure from wave inundation. Extreme storms and sea-level rise can alter these habitats,...
Relationships between regional coastal land cover distributions and elevation reveal data uncertainty in a sea-level rise impacts model
Understanding land loss or resilience in response to sea-level rise (SLR) requires spatially extensive and continuous datasets to capture landscape variability. We investigate sensitivity and skill of a model that predicts dynamic response likelihood to SLR across the northeastern U.S. by exploring several data inputs and outcomes. Using...
Lentz, Erika E.; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Thieler, E. Robert A Bayesian approach to predict sub-annual beach change and recovery
The upper beach, between the astronomical high tide and the dune-toe, supports habitat and recreation along many beaches, making predictions of upper beach change valuable to coastal managers and the public. We developed and tested a Bayesian network (BN) to predict the cross-shore position of an upper beach elevation contour (ZlD) following 1...
Wilson, Kathleen; Lentz, Erika E.; Miselis, Jennifer L.; Safak, Ilgar; Brenner, Owen T. Northeast
The distinct seasonality of the Northeast’s climate supports a diverse natural landscape adapted to the extremes of cold, snowy winters and warm to hot, humid summers. This natural landscape provides the economic and cultural foundation for many rural communities, which are largely supported by a diverse range of agricultural, tourism, and natural...
Reidmiller, D. R.; Avery, C. W.; Easterling, D. R.; Kunkel, K. E.; Lewis, K. L. M.; Maycock, T. K.; Stewart, B. C.; Dupigny-Giroux, Lesley-Ann L.; Mecray, Ellen L.; Lemcke-Stampone, Mary D.; Hodgkins, Glenn A.; Lentz, Erika E.; Mills, Katherine E.; Lane, Erin D.; Miller, Rawlings; Hollinger, David Y.; Solecki, William D.; Wellenius, Gregory A.; Sheffield, Perry E.; McDonald, Anthony B.; Caldwell, Christopher
Community for Data Integration fiscal year 2017 funded project report
The U.S. Geological Survey Community for Data Integration annually funds small projects focusing on data integration for interdisciplinary research, innovative data management, and demonstration of new technologies. This report provides a summary of the 11 projects funded in fiscal year 2017, outlining their goals, activities, and outputs.
Hsu, Leslie; Allstadt, Kate E.; Bell, Tara M.; Boydston, Erin E.; Erickson, Richard A.; Everette, A. Lance; Lentz, Erika E.; Peters, Jeff; Reichert, Brian E.; Nagorsen, Sarah; Sherba, Jason T.; Signell, Richard P.; Wiltermuth, Mark T.; Young, John A. Characterizing storm response and recovery using the beach change envelope: Fire Island, New York
Hurricane Sandy at Fire Island, New York presented unique challenges in the quantification of storm impacts using traditional metrics of coastal change, wherein measured changes (shoreline, dune crest, and volume change) did not fully reflect the substantial changes in sediment redistribution following the storm. We used a time series of beach...
Brenner, Owen T.; Lentz, Erika E.; Hapke, Cheryl J.; Henderson, Rachel; Wilson, Kathleen; Nelson, Timothy UAS-SfM for coastal research: Geomorphic feature extraction and land cover classification from high-resolution elevation and optical imagery
The vulnerability of coastal systems to hazards such as storms and sea-level rise is typically characterized using a combination of ground and manned airborne systems that have limited spatial or temporal scales. Structure-from-motion (SfM) photogrammetry applied to imagery acquired by unmanned aerial systems (UAS) offers a rapid and inexpensive...
Sturdivant, Emily; Lentz, Erika E.; Thieler, E. Robert; Farris, Amy S.; Weber, Kathryn M.; Remsen, David P.; Miner, Simon; Henderson, Rachel E. Coastal Topography—Fire Island, New York, 07 May 2012
Lidar-derived bare-earth topography Digital Elevation Model (DEM) mosaic and classified point-cloud datasets for Fire Island, New York, were produced from remotely sensed, geographically referenced elevation measurements collected on May 7, 2012.
Fredericks, Alexandra M.; Hapke, Cheryl J.; Lentz, Erika
Challenges of predicting coastal impacts of sea level rise (SLR) in northeastern United States
The impacts of future sea level rise (SLR) are challenging to predict because they are not the same everywhere. Coastal environments and the amount of development vary—from marshes, beaches, and rocky headlands to cities, towns and beach communities—and so does how the coast responds to SLR.
Woods Hole Coastal and Marine Science Center staff contribute to 4th National Climate Assessment
Ocean and coastal ecosystems in the northeast are being affected by large changes in a variety of climate-related environmental conditions.
USGS contributes to the Fourth National Climate Assessment
USGS Research Hydrologist Glenn Hodgkins co-authored the Fourth National Climate Assessment’s Northeast chapter. USGS Research Geologist Erika Lentz was also a co-author. The recently published chapter discusses historical and potential future impacts of climatic changes on New England’s people and natural resources, including it’s inland and coastal waters.
New Products Provide an Interactive Guide to Global and Regional Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the United States
A geo-narrative and accompanying data viewer provide users a new way to visualize 2017 sea-level rise scenarios originally generated for the National Climate Assessment (NCA).
Up to 70 Percent of Northeast U.S. Coast May Adapt to Rising Seas
Much of the coast from Maine to Virginia is more likely to change than to simply drown in response to rising seas during the next 70 years or so, according to a new study led by the U.S. Geological Survey.