Erika Lentz, Ph.D.
My research focuses on coastal change due to storms, sea-level rise, and the geology of an area.
Biography
I explore how change varies among different ecosystems and across landscapes, and what makes certain locations more resilient than others. Additionally, I am interested in the meaningful communication of scientific information to support decision-making. Recently these subjects have been addressed in several projects:
- Coastal Landscape Response to Sea-Level Rise Assessment (http://woodshole.er.usgs.gov/project-pages/coastal_response/)
- Fire Island Coastal Change (http://coastal.er.usgs.gov/fire-island/).
Selected Publications: (PDF copies of papers are available, please email me: elentz@usgs.gov)
Coastal Landscape Change
Lentz, E.E., Thieler, E.R., Plant, N.P, Stippa, S.R., Horton, R., and Gesch, D.B. (2016). Evaluation of dynamic coastal response to sea-level rise modifies inundation likelihood. Nature Climate Change, doi:10.1038/nclimate2957
Lentz, E.E., Stippa, S.R., Thieler, E.R., Plant, N.G., Gesch, D.B., and Horton, R.M. (2015). Evaluating coastal landscape response to sea-level rise in the northeastern United States—Approach and methods: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2014-1252, http://dx.doi.org/10.3133/ofr20141252.
Lentz, E.E., Stippa, S.R., Thieler, E.R., Plant, N.G., Gesch, D.B., and Horton, R.M. (2015). Coastal landscape response to sea-level rise assessment for the northeastern United States: U.S. Geological Survey data release, http://dx.doi.org/10.5066/F73J3B0B.
Barrier Island Change
Wilson, K.E., Adams, P.N., Hapke, C.J., Lentz, E.E., and Brenner, O. (2015). Application of Bayesian Networks to hindcast barrier island morphodynamics. Coastal Engineering, 102, p. 30-43.
Lentz, E.E., Hapke, C.J., Stockdon, H.S., and Hehre, R.E. (2013). Improving understanding of near-term barrier island evolution through multi-decadal assessment of morphologic change. Marine Geology, 337, p. 125-139.
Schwab, W.C., Baldwin, W.E., Hapke, C.J., Lentz, E.E., Gayes, P.T., Denny, J.F., List, J.H., and Warner, J.C. (2013). Geologic evidence for onshore sediment transport from the inner-continental shelf: Fire Island, New York. Journal of Coastal Research, 29(3), p. 536-544.
Lentz, E.E., and Hapke, C.J. (2011). Geologic framework influences on the geomorphology of an anthropogenically modified barrier island: Assessment of dune/beach changes at Fire Island, New York. Geomorphology, 126, p. 82-96.
Hapke, C.J., Lentz, E.E., Gayes, P.T., McCoy, C.A., Hehre, R., Schwab, W.C., and Williams, S.J.(2010). A review of sediment budget imbalances along Fire Island, New York: can nearshore geologic framework and patterns of shoreline change explain the deficit? Journal of Coastal Research, 26(3), p. 510-522.
Lentz, E.E., and Hapke, C.J., (2011). The development of a probabilistic approach to forecast coastal change. Proceedings of the Coastal Sediments 2011 Conference, May 2-6, Miami, Florida.
Science and Products
Coastal Change at Fire Island, a geonarrative
Approximately 60 miles from the skyscrapers and fast-pace of New York City, Fire Island stretches 31 miles along the south shore of Long Island. The sandy beaches and pristine wilderness areas of Fire Island National Seashore are dotted with secluded residential communities. The island is fronted by the Atlantic Ocean, so in addition to its natural and recreational value, Fire Island is also...
Coastal System Change at Fire Island, New York
Fire Island is a 50-km long barrier island along the south shore of Long Island, New York. The island is comprised of seventeen year-round communities; federal, state, and county parks; and supports distinct ecosystems alongside areas of economic and cultural value. In addition to providing resources to its residents, the barrier island also protects the heavily-populated mainland from storm...
Probabilistic Framing
The Bayesian statistical framework is ideal for using data sets derived from historical or modern observations such as long-term shoreline change or wetland accretion/elevation trends. This information can be combined with model simulations and used to define the relationships between key variables in coastal environments.
Sea-Level Rise Hazards and Decision Support
The Sea-Level Rise Hazards and Decision-Support project assesses present and future coastal vulnerability to provide actionable information for management of our Nation’s coasts. Through multidisciplinary research and collaborative partnerships with decision-makers, physical, biological, and social factors that describe landscape and habitat changes are incorporated in a...
Breach Evolution - Coastal System Change at Fire Island, New York
In 2012, during Hurricane Sandy, a breach formed in the Otis Pike High Dune Wilderness Area on Fire Island, NY.
Other Storm Impacts - Coastal System Change at Fire Island, New York
Since the late 1990s, USGS has been conducting research to quantify the impact from other hurricanes and nor'easters on the beaches and dunes at Fire Island.
Hurricane Sandy - Coastal System Change at Fire Island, New York
USGS used several techniques to quantify the impacts of Hurricane Sandy on the ocean shoreline of Fire Island.
Storm Impacts - Coastal System Change at Fire Island, New York
Fire Island is vulnerable to considerable storm activity year-round from both hurricanes and nor’easters. Storms are important drivers of coastal change in barrier island settings such as Fire Island. Larger storms carry sediment to the interior of the island via overwash, helping to create new habitat and build island resilience by adding back barrier width and interior elevation. Storms also...
Research Integration - Coastal System Change at Fire Island, New York
In order to predict the future behavior of the Fire Island landscape as a whole, information from across research themes must be integrated.
Predicting Future Beach Change - Coastal System Change at Fire Island, New York
Probabilistic models are used to predict future beach changes at Fire Island. These models, referred to as Bayesian networks, use statistics to estimate probabilities of future beach configurations based on existing observations. Bayesian networks are easily updated with new data or observations, making this approach ideal for use in coastal systems that experience rapid and frequent changes...
Beach Change Envelope - Coastal System Change at Fire Island, New York
Given the unique challenges in quantifying the extensive, yet variable impacts of Hurricane Sandy at Fire Island, we used a time series of beach profile data at Fire Island, New York, to define a new contour-based morphologic change metric, the Beach Change Envelope (BCE).
Beach Profiles - Coastal System Change at Fire Island, New York
As part of the assessment of beach and dune morphologic change associated with Hurricane Sandy and the continuing efforts to track post-Sandy recovery, differential global positioning system (DGPS) elevation data are collected along 15 shore-perpendicular profiles extending from just inland of the crest of dune to the low-tide swash zone.
Topographic, imagery, and raw data associated with unmanned aerial systems (UAS) flights over Black Beach, Falmouth, Massachusetts on 18 March 2016
The U.S. Geological Survey worked in collaboration with members of the Marine Biological Laboratory and Woods Hole Analytics at Black Beach, in Falmouth, Massachusetts to explore scientific research demands on UAS technology for topographic and habitat mapping applications.
Relationships between regional coastal land cover distributions and elevation reveal data uncertainty in a sea-level rise impacts model
Understanding land loss or resilience in response to sea-level rise (SLR) requires spatially extensive and continuous datasets to capture landscape variability. We investigate sensitivity and skill of a model that predicts dynamic response likelihood to SLR across the northeastern U.S. by exploring several data inputs and outcomes. Using...
Lentz, Erika E.; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Thieler, E. Robert A Bayesian approach to predict sub-annual beach change and recovery
The upper beach, between the astronomical high tide and the dune-toe, supports habitat and recreation along many beaches, making predictions of upper beach change valuable to coastal managers and the public. We developed and tested a Bayesian network (BN) to predict the cross-shore position of an upper beach elevation contour (ZlD) following 1...
Wilson, Kathleen; Lentz, Erika E.; Miselis, Jennifer L.; Safak, Ilgar; Brenner, Owen T. Northeast
The distinct seasonality of the Northeast’s climate supports a diverse natural landscape adapted to the extremes of cold, snowy winters and warm to hot, humid summers. This natural landscape provides the economic and cultural foundation for many rural communities, which are largely supported by a diverse range of agricultural, tourism, and natural...
Reidmiller, David; Avery, C. W.; Easterling, D. R.; Kunkel, K. E.; Lewis, K. L. M.; Maycock, T. K.; Stewart, B. C.; Dupigny-Giroux, Lesley-Ann L.; Mecray, Ellen L.; Lemcke-Stampone, Mary D.; Hodgkins, Glenn A.; Lentz, Erika E.; Mills, Katherine E.; Lane, Erin D.; Miller, Rawlings; Hollinger, David Y.; Solecki, William D.; Wellenius, Gregory A.; Sheffield, Perry E.; McDonald, Anthony B.; Caldwell, Christopher
Community for Data Integration fiscal year 2017 funded project report
The U.S. Geological Survey Community for Data Integration annually funds small projects focusing on data integration for interdisciplinary research, innovative data management, and demonstration of new technologies. This report provides a summary of the 11 projects funded in fiscal year 2017, outlining their goals, activities, and outputs.
Hsu, Leslie; Allstadt, Kate E.; Bell, Tara M.; Boydston, Erin E.; Erickson, Richard A.; Everette, A. Lance; Lentz, Erika E.; Peters, Jeff; Reichert, Brian E.; Nagorsen, Sarah; Sherba, Jason T.; Signell, Richard P.; Wiltermuth, Mark T.; Young, John A. Characterizing storm response and recovery using the beach change envelope: Fire Island, New York
Hurricane Sandy at Fire Island, New York presented unique challenges in the quantification of storm impacts using traditional metrics of coastal change, wherein measured changes (shoreline, dune crest, and volume change) did not fully reflect the substantial changes in sediment redistribution following the storm. We used a time series of beach...
Brenner, Owen T.; Lentz, Erika E.; Hapke, Cheryl J.; Henderson, Rachel; Wilson, Kathleen; Nelson, Timothy UAS-SfM for coastal research: Geomorphic feature extraction and land cover classification from high-resolution elevation and optical imagery
The vulnerability of coastal systems to hazards such as storms and sea-level rise is typically characterized using a combination of ground and manned airborne systems that have limited spatial or temporal scales. Structure-from-motion (SfM) photogrammetry applied to imagery acquired by unmanned aerial systems (UAS) offers a rapid and inexpensive...
Sturdivant, Emily J.; Lentz, Erika E.; Thieler, E. Robert; Farris, Amy S.; Weber, Kathryn M.; Remsen, David P.; Miner, Simon; Henderson, Rachel E. Global and regional sea level rise scenarios for the United States
The Sea Level Rise and Coastal Flood Hazard Scenarios and Tools Interagency Task Force, jointly convened by the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) and the National Ocean Council (NOC), began its work in August 2015. The Task Force has focused its efforts on three primary tasks: 1) updating scenarios of global mean sea level (GMSL) rise,...
Sweet, W.; Kopp, R.E.; Weaver, C.P.; Obeysekera, J; Horton, Radley M.; Thieler, E. Robert; Zervas, C. Evaluation of dynamic coastal response to sea-level rise modifies inundation likelihood
Sea-level rise (SLR) poses a range of threats to natural and built environments1, 2, making assessments of SLR-induced hazards essential for informed decision making3. We develop a probabilistic model that evaluates the likelihood that an area will inundate (flood) or dynamically respond (adapt) to SLR. The broad-area applicability of the approach...
Lentz, Erika E.; Thieler, E. Robert; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Stippa, Sawyer R.; Horton, Radley M.; Gesch, Dean B. Coastal Topography—Fire Island, New York, 07 May 2012
Lidar-derived bare-earth topography Digital Elevation Model (DEM) mosaic and classified point-cloud datasets for Fire Island, New York, were produced from remotely sensed, geographically referenced elevation measurements collected on May 7, 2012.
Fredericks, Alexandra M.; Hapke, Cheryl J.; Lentz, Erika
Evaluating coastal landscape response to sea-level rise in the northeastern United States: approach and methods
The U.S. Geological Survey is examining effects of future sea-level rise on the coastal landscape from Maine to Virginia by producing spatially explicit, probabilistic predictions using sea-level projections, vertical land movement rates (due to isostacy), elevation data, and land-cover data. Sea-level-rise scenarios used as model inputs are...
Lentz, Erika E.; Stippa, Sawyer R.; Thieler, E. Robert; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Gesch, Dean B.; Horton, Radley M. The vertical structure of the circulation and dynamics in Hudson Shelf Valley
Hudson Shelf Valley is a 20–30 m deep, 5–10 km wide v-shaped submarine valley that extends across the Middle Atlantic Bight continental shelf. The valley provides a conduit for cross-shelf exchange via along-valley currents of 0.5 m s−1 or more. Current profile, pressure, and density observations collected during the winter...
Lentz, Steven J.; Butman, Bradford; Harris, Courtney K. Geologic evidence for onshore sediment transport from the inner continental shelf: Fire Island, New York
Sediment budget analyses along the south shore of Fire Island, New York, have been conducted and debated in the scientific and coastal engineering literature for decades. It is well documented that a primary component of sediment transport in this system is directed alongshore from E to W, but discrepancies in volumetric sediment budget...
Schwab, William C.; Baldwin, Wayne E.; Hapke, Cheryl J.; Lentz, Erika E.; Gayes, Paul T.; Denny, Jane F.; List, Jeffrey H.; Warner, John C.
Challenges of predicting coastal impacts of sea level rise (SLR) in northeastern United States
The impacts of future sea level rise (SLR) are challenging to predict because they are not the same everywhere. Coastal environments and the amount of development vary—from marshes, beaches, and rocky headlands to cities, towns and beach communities—and so does how the coast responds to SLR.
Woods Hole Coastal and Marine Science Center staff contribute to 4th National Climate Assessment
Ocean and coastal ecosystems in the northeast are being affected by large changes in a variety of climate-related environmental conditions.
USGS contributes to the Fourth National Climate Assessment
USGS Research Hydrologist Glenn Hodgkins co-authored the Fourth National Climate Assessment’s Northeast chapter. USGS Research Geologist Erika Lentz was also a co-author. The recently published chapter discusses historical and potential future impacts of climatic changes on New England’s people and natural resources, including it’s inland and coastal waters.
New Products Provide an Interactive Guide to Global and Regional Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the United States
A geo-narrative and accompanying data viewer provide users a new way to visualize 2017 sea-level rise scenarios originally generated for the National Climate Assessment (NCA).
USGS Researchers attend 11th Biennial Science Workshop at Fire Island National Seashore
SPCMSC Research Geologist Jennifer Miselis and WHCMSC Research Geologist Erika Lentz will present USGS research at the 11th Biennial Science Workshop organized by the National Park Service (NPS) Fire Island National Seashore (FIIS).
Up to 70 Percent of Northeast U.S. Coast May Adapt to Rising Seas
Much of the coast from Maine to Virginia is more likely to change than to simply drown in response to rising seas during the next 70 years or so, according to a new study led by the U.S. Geological Survey.