I lead research at USGS within the Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program focused on coastal change— including understanding the forces and processes that drive it, developing innovative methods to determine where and when it is likely to occur, and working closely with intended users to ensure the scientific information we produce is meaningful, actionable, and accessible.
I am a Research Geologist at the Woods Hole Coastal and Marine Science Center with the U.S. Geological Survey. My research focuses on coastal change and the processes that drive it over a range of spatial (barrier island to regional) and temporal (storms to sea level rise) scales in both natural and built environments. More recently, I have been exploring how coastal change varies among different ecosystems and across landscapes, what makes certain locations more resilient than others, and where coastal change is most likely to occur in the future. I am also interested in the communication of scientific information to support decision-making and use design thinking and transdisciplinary approaches to deeply consider user needs in the development of products and tools, as well as to foster creativity and innovation in research teams. Since 2017, I have led multidisciplinary project teams to explore these themes as both Principal Investigator and task leader.
Professional Experience
Research Geologist, USGS Woods Hole Coastal and Marine Science Center, 2016 – present
USGS Postdoctoral Researcher, USGS Woods Hole Coastal and Marine Science Center, 2014-2016
Mendenhall Postdoctoral Researcher, USGS Woods Hole Coastal and Marine Science Center 2012-2014
NSF IGERT Fellow, University of Rhode Island, 2005-2007
Education and Certifications
2011, Ph.D. in Geosciences, University of Rhode Island
2003, B.A. in Geology and Sociology, George Mason University
Science and Products
Connecting with our stakeholders - developing a better understanding of use and usability for science products
Coastal Change Likelihood
State of Our Nation's Coast
Coastal Change Hazards
Coastal Change at Fire Island, a geonarrative
Coastal System Change at Fire Island, New York
Probabilistic Framing
Sea-Level Rise Hazards and Decision Support
Breach Evolution - Coastal System Change at Fire Island, New York
Other Storm Impacts - Coastal System Change at Fire Island, New York
Hurricane Sandy - Coastal System Change at Fire Island, New York
Storm Impacts - Coastal System Change at Fire Island, New York
Coastal Change Likelihood in the U.S. Northeast Region: Maine to Virginia
Topographic, imagery, and raw data associated with unmanned aerial systems (UAS) flights over Black Beach, Falmouth, Massachusetts on 18 March 2016
Post Hurricane Sandy Beach Profile Survey-Fire Island Inlet to Moriches Inlet 2013
Coastal Topography-Fire Island, New York, 07 May 2012
Coastal Landscape Response to Sea-Level Rise Assessment for the Northeastern United States Data Release
Developing a habitat model to support management of threatened seabeach amaranth (Amaranthus pumilus) at Assateague Island National Seashore, Maryland and Virginia
Development and application of a coastal change likelihood assessment for the northeast region, Maine to Virginia
Integrating Bayesian networks to forecast sea-level rise impacts on barrier island characteristics and habitat availability
Predicted sea-level rise-driven biogeomorphological changes on Fire Island, New York: Implications for people and plovers
Probabilistic patterns of inundation and biogeomorphic changes due to sea-level rise along the northeastern U.S. Atlantic coast
Relationships between regional coastal land cover distributions and elevation reveal data uncertainty in a sea-level rise impacts model
Northeast
Community for Data Integration fiscal year 2017 funded project report
A Bayesian approach to predict sub-annual beach change and recovery
Characterizing storm response and recovery using the beach change envelope: Fire Island, New York
UAS-SfM for coastal research: Geomorphic feature extraction and land cover classification from high-resolution elevation and optical imagery
Global and regional sea level rise scenarios for the United States
National Shoreline Change
Exploring Shoreline Positions of the United States From the 1800s To The Present. This geonarrative explains how the USGS derives shorelines from various data sources, and how shoreline change rates are generated from these data. The Natural Hazards Mission Area programs of the USGS develop and apply hazard science to help protect the safety, security, and economic well-being of the Nation.
Our Coasts
USGS Coastal Change Hazards research provides scientific tools to protect lives, property, and the economic well being of the Nation. The mission of the USGS Coastal Change Hazards Program is to provide research and tools to protect lives, property, and the economic well-being of the Nation. This is a story map that introduces the value of our coasts and the threats they face with global change.
Sea Level Change
An Interactive Guide to Global and Regional Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the United States
Sea Level Change: An Interactive Guide to Global and Regional Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the United States
In collaboration with USGS researchers, The Sea Level Rise and Coastal Flood Hazard Scenarios and Tools Interagency Task Force convened by the U.S. Ocean Policy Committee and the U.S. Global Change Research Program has developed two products that provides users with information and a tool to visualize, interact with, and explore 2017 sea-level rise scenarios.
Science and Products
- Science
Filter Total Items: 29
Connecting with our stakeholders - developing a better understanding of use and usability for science products
The value of USGS tools and products can be assessed by collecting use metrics, user feedback, and examples of practical application. We will pilot an approach to assess the utility of two Coastal Change Hazards product releases and establish a guide for tracking the use and user experience of USGS products.Coastal Change Likelihood
The U.S. Geological Survey, in partnership with the National Park Service through the Natural Resource Preservation Program, developed the Coastal Change Likelihood (CCL) assessment to determine the future likelihood of coastal change along U.S. coastlines in the next decade. The Northeast United States, from Maine to Virginia, was selected for a proof-of-concept pilot study.State of Our Nation's Coast
The USGS Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program (CMHRP) established a Coastal Change Hazards (CCH) programmatic focus to support the optimization of resources, improve the visibility of USGS coastal hazards science, and prioritize science, products, and tools that meet stakeholder needs. Important work by CMHRP scientists and staff within CCH supports hazard mitigation along our nation’s...Coastal Change Hazards
Natural processes such as waves, tides, and weather, continually change coastal landscapes. The integrity of coastal homes, businesses, and infrastructure can be threatened by hazards associated with event-driven changes, such as extreme storms and their impacts on beach and dune erosion, or longer-term, cumulative changes associated with coastal and marine processes, such as sea-level rise...Coastal Change at Fire Island, a geonarrative
For more than two decades the U.S. Geological Survey has been researching Fire Island's offshore, nearshore, and barrier island systems to better understand drivers of coastal change and evolution. This geonarrative delves into how barrier islands change and evolve, demonstrates how seasons, storms and humans change beaches, and explores the role models play in predicting what the beach might look...Coastal System Change at Fire Island, New York
Fire Island is a 50-km long barrier island along the south shore of Long Island, New York. The island is comprised of seventeen year-round communities; federal, state, and county parks; and supports distinct ecosystems alongside areas of economic and cultural value. In addition to providing resources to its residents, the barrier island also protects the heavily-populated mainland from storm waves...Probabilistic Framing
The Bayesian statistical framework is ideal for using data sets derived from historical or modern observations such as long-term shoreline change or wetland accretion/elevation trends. This information can be combined with model simulations and used to define the relationships between key variables in coastal environments.Sea-Level Rise Hazards and Decision Support
The Sea-Level Rise Hazards and Decision-Support project assesses present and future coastal vulnerability to provide actionable information for management of our Nation’s coasts. Through multidisciplinary research and collaborative partnerships with decision-makers, physical, biological, and social factors that describe landscape and habitat changes are incorporated in a probabilistic modeling...Breach Evolution - Coastal System Change at Fire Island, New York
In 2012, during Hurricane Sandy, a breach formed in the Otis Pike High Dune Wilderness Area on Fire Island, NY.Other Storm Impacts - Coastal System Change at Fire Island, New York
Since the late 1990s, USGS has been conducting research to quantify the impact from other hurricanes and nor'easters on the beaches and dunes at Fire Island.Hurricane Sandy - Coastal System Change at Fire Island, New York
USGS used several techniques to quantify the impacts of Hurricane Sandy on the ocean shoreline of Fire Island.Storm Impacts - Coastal System Change at Fire Island, New York
Fire Island is vulnerable to considerable storm activity year-round from both hurricanes and nor’easters. Storms are important drivers of coastal change in barrier island settings such as Fire Island. Larger storms carry sediment to the interior of the island via overwash, helping to create new habitat and build island resilience by adding back barrier width and interior elevation. Storms also... - Data
Coastal Change Likelihood in the U.S. Northeast Region: Maine to Virginia
Coastal resources are increasingly impacted by erosion, extreme weather events, sea-level rise, tidal flooding, and other potential hazards related to climate change. These hazards have varying impacts on coastal landscapes due to the numerous geologic, oceanographic, ecological, and socioeconomic factors that exist at a given location. Here, an assessment framework is introduced that synthesizesTopographic, imagery, and raw data associated with unmanned aerial systems (UAS) flights over Black Beach, Falmouth, Massachusetts on 18 March 2016
Imagery acquired with unmanned aerial systems (UAS) and coupled with structure-from-motion (SfM) photogrammetry can produce high-resolution topographic and visual reflectance datasets that rival or exceed lidar and orthoimagery. These new techniques are particularly useful for data collection of coastal systems, which requires high temporal and spatial resolution datasets. The U.S. Geological SurvPost Hurricane Sandy Beach Profile Survey-Fire Island Inlet to Moriches Inlet 2013
The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers contracted a beach survey of Fire Island, New York from September 17-October 6, 2013 for the purpose of planning of a beach reconstruction project following Hurricane Sandy. This dataset contains elevation data of subaerial morphology and nearshore bathymetry collected using real time kinematic global positioning system (RTK-GPS) and hydrography techniques. The datCoastal Topography-Fire Island, New York, 07 May 2012
Lidar-derived bare-earth topography Digital Elevation Model (DEM) mosaic and classified point-cloud datasets for Fire Island, New York, were produced from remotely sensed, geographically referenced elevation measurements collected on May 7, 2012.Coastal Landscape Response to Sea-Level Rise Assessment for the Northeastern United States Data Release
As part of the USGS Sea-Level Rise Hazards and Decision-Support project, this assessment seeks to predict the response to sea-level rise across the coastal landscape under a range of future scenarios by evaluating the likelihood of inundation as well as dynamic coastal change. The research is being conducted in conjunction with resource managers and decision makers from federal and state agencies, - Multimedia
- Publications
Filter Total Items: 18
Developing a habitat model to support management of threatened seabeach amaranth (Amaranthus pumilus) at Assateague Island National Seashore, Maryland and Virginia
Amaranthus pumilus (seabeach amaranth) is a federally threatened plant species that has been the focus of restoration efforts at Assateague Island National Seashore (ASIS). Despite several years with strong population numbers prior to 2010, monitoring efforts have revealed a significant decline in the seabeach amaranth population since that time, the causes of which have been unclear. To examine pAuthorsBenjamin T. Gutierrez, Erika E. LentzDevelopment and application of a coastal change likelihood assessment for the northeast region, Maine to Virginia
Coastal resources are increasingly affected by erosion, extreme weather events, sea level rise, tidal flooding, and other potential hazards related to climate change. These hazards have varying effects on coastal landscapes because of the compounding of geologic, oceanographic, ecologic, and socioeconomic factors that exist at a given location. An assessment framework is introduced in this reportAuthorsElizabeth A. Pendleton, Erika E. Lentz, Travis K. Sterne, Rachel E. HendersonIntegrating Bayesian networks to forecast sea-level rise impacts on barrier island characteristics and habitat availability
Evaluation of sea-level rise (SLR) impacts on coastal landforms and habitats is a persistent need for informing coastal planning and management, including policy decisions, particularly those that balance human interests and habitat protection throughout the coastal zone. Bayesian networks (BNs) are used to model barrier island change under different SLR scenarios that are relevant to management aAuthorsBenjamin T. Gutierrez, Sara Zeigler, Erika E. Lentz, Emily J. Sturdivant, Nathaniel PlantPredicted sea-level rise-driven biogeomorphological changes on Fire Island, New York: Implications for people and plovers
Forecasting biogeomorphological conditions for barrier islands is critical for informing sea-level rise (SLR) planning, including management of coastal development and ecosystems. We combined five probabilistic models to predict SLR-driven changes and their implications on Fire Island, New York, by 2050. We predicted barrier island biogeomorphological conditions, dynamic landcover response, pipingAuthorsSara Lynn Zeigler, Benjamin T. Gutierrez, Erika E. Lentz, Nathaniel Plant, Emily J. Sturdivant, Kara S. DoranProbabilistic patterns of inundation and biogeomorphic changes due to sea-level rise along the northeastern U.S. Atlantic coast
ContextCoastal landscapes evolve in response to sea-level rise (SLR) through a variety of geologic processes and ecological feedbacks. When the SLR rate surpasses the rate at which these processes build elevation and drive lateral migration, inundation is likely.ObjectivesTo examine the role of land cover diversity and composition in landscape response to SLR across the northeastern United States.AuthorsErika E. Lentz, Sara L. Zeigler, E. Robert Thieler, Nathaniel G. PlantRelationships between regional coastal land cover distributions and elevation reveal data uncertainty in a sea-level rise impacts model
Understanding land loss or resilience in response to sea-level rise (SLR) requires spatially extensive and continuous datasets to capture landscape variability. We investigate sensitivity and skill of a model that predicts dynamic response likelihood to SLR across the northeastern U.S. by exploring several data inputs and outcomes. Using elevation and land cover datasets, we determine where datAuthorsErika E. Lentz, Nathaniel G. Plant, E. Robert ThielerNortheast
The distinct seasonality of the Northeast’s climate supports a diverse natural landscape adapted to the extremes of cold, snowy winters and warm to hot, humid summers. This natural landscape provides the economic and cultural foundation for many rural communities, which are largely supported by a diverse range of agricultural, tourism, and natural resource-dependent industries (see Ch. 10: Ag & RuAuthorsLesley-Ann L. Dupigny-Giroux, Ellen L. Mecray, Mary D. Lemcke-Stampone, Glenn A. Hodgkins, Erika E. Lentz, Katherine E. Mills, Erin D. Lane, Rawlings Miller, David Y. Hollinger, William D. Solecki, Gregory A. Wellenius, Perry E. Sheffield, Anthony B. McDonald, Christopher CaldwellCommunity for Data Integration fiscal year 2017 funded project report
The U.S. Geological Survey Community for Data Integration annually funds small projects focusing on data integration for interdisciplinary research, innovative data management, and demonstration of new technologies. This report provides a summary of the 11 projects funded in fiscal year 2017, outlining their goals, activities, and outputs.AuthorsLeslie Hsu, Kate E. Allstadt, Tara M. Bell, Erin E. Boydston, Richard A. Erickson, A. Lance Everette, Erika E. Lentz, Jeff Peters, Brian Reichert, Sarah Nagorsen, Jason T. Sherba, Richard P. Signell, Mark T. Wiltermuth, John A. YoungA Bayesian approach to predict sub-annual beach change and recovery
The upper beach, between the astronomical high tide and the dune-toe, supports habitat and recreation along many beaches, making predictions of upper beach change valuable to coastal managers and the public. We developed and tested a Bayesian network (BN) to predict the cross-shore position of an upper beach elevation contour (ZlD) following 1 month to 1-year intervals at Fire Island, New York. WeAuthorsKathleen Wilson, Erika E. Lentz, Jennifer L. Miselis, Ilgar Safak, Owen T. BrennerCharacterizing storm response and recovery using the beach change envelope: Fire Island, New York
Hurricane Sandy at Fire Island, New York presented unique challenges in the quantification of storm impacts using traditional metrics of coastal change, wherein measured changes (shoreline, dune crest, and volume change) did not fully reflect the substantial changes in sediment redistribution following the storm. We used a time series of beach profile data at Fire Island, New York to define a newAuthorsOwen T. Brenner, Erika E. Lentz, Cheryl J. Hapke, Rachel Henderson, Kathleen Wilson, Timothy NelsonUAS-SfM for coastal research: Geomorphic feature extraction and land cover classification from high-resolution elevation and optical imagery
The vulnerability of coastal systems to hazards such as storms and sea-level rise is typically characterized using a combination of ground and manned airborne systems that have limited spatial or temporal scales. Structure-from-motion (SfM) photogrammetry applied to imagery acquired by unmanned aerial systems (UAS) offers a rapid and inexpensive means to produce high-resolution topographic and visAuthorsEmily J. Sturdivant, Erika E. Lentz, E. Robert Thieler, Amy S. Farris, Kathryn M. Weber, David P. Remsen, Simon Miner, Rachel E. HendersonGlobal and regional sea level rise scenarios for the United States
The Sea Level Rise and Coastal Flood Hazard Scenarios and Tools Interagency Task Force, jointly convened by the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) and the National Ocean Council (NOC), began its work in August 2015. The Task Force has focused its efforts on three primary tasks: 1) updating scenarios of global mean sea level (GMSL) rise, 2) integrating the global scenarios with regional fAuthorsW. Sweet, R.E. Kopp, C.P. Weaver, J Obeysekera, Radley M. Horton, E. Robert Thieler, C. Zervas - Web Tools
National Shoreline Change
Exploring Shoreline Positions of the United States From the 1800s To The Present. This geonarrative explains how the USGS derives shorelines from various data sources, and how shoreline change rates are generated from these data. The Natural Hazards Mission Area programs of the USGS develop and apply hazard science to help protect the safety, security, and economic well-being of the Nation.
Our Coasts
USGS Coastal Change Hazards research provides scientific tools to protect lives, property, and the economic well being of the Nation. The mission of the USGS Coastal Change Hazards Program is to provide research and tools to protect lives, property, and the economic well-being of the Nation. This is a story map that introduces the value of our coasts and the threats they face with global change.
Sea Level Change
An Interactive Guide to Global and Regional Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the United States
Sea Level Change: An Interactive Guide to Global and Regional Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the United States
In collaboration with USGS researchers, The Sea Level Rise and Coastal Flood Hazard Scenarios and Tools Interagency Task Force convened by the U.S. Ocean Policy Committee and the U.S. Global Change Research Program has developed two products that provides users with information and a tool to visualize, interact with, and explore 2017 sea-level rise scenarios.
- News