Evaluating deterrent locations and sequence in the Tennessee and Cumberland Rivers and the Tennessee–Tombigbee Waterway to minimize invasive carp occupancy and abundance

Invasive carps, specifically silver carp (Hypophthalmichthys molitrix), bighead carp (H. nobilis), grass carp (Ctenopharyngodon idella), and black carp (Mylopharyngodon piceus), have proliferated in the Mississippi River Basin owing to escapes from aquaculture facilities and intentional releases. In the Water Resources and Development Act (WRDA) of 2020 Sec. 509, Congress directed the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to work with the Tennessee Valley Authority and other relevant agencies with deterrent projects to implement as many as 10 deterrent projects intended to manage and prevent the spread of invasive carp in the Tennessee and Cumberland River subbasins. The WRDA was amended in 2022 to include that at least one location must be situated on the Tennessee–Tombigbee Waterway. This report documents a structured decision-making process that engaged State and Federal agencies to evaluate alternative deterrent site sequences at specified lock and dam complexes on the Tennessee River, Cumberland River, and the Tennessee–Tombigbee Waterway. State and Federal agencies participated in a series of virtual and face-to-face meetings to structure the problem, expand the models used in previous decision analyses for the Tennessee River, and define management objectives. Potential deterrent sites were restricted to the downstream locations on the Tennessee River (n=3), Cumberland River (n=2), and the Tennessee–Tombigbee Waterway (n=10). Only considering 15 sites allowed all feasible deterrent site combinations and sequences to be evaluated. Invasive carp relative abundance was projected for the Tennessee River, Cumberland River, and Tennessee–Tombigbee Waterway management units for 20 years using a simulation model. The deterrent site sequences were ranked based on the system-level invasive carp relative abundance and distribution in year 20. The unique downstream expansion of invasive carp through the Tennessee–Tombigbee Waterway was important to the interest group, but downstream movement rates were unknown; therefore, several downstream movement rates were evaluated, and the outcomes were used to rank deterrent site sequences. Additionally, the analysis incorporated two scenarios involving the retention and removal of an experimental deterrent at Barkley Lock on the Cumberland River. The results of the deterrent site sequences varied among downstream movement rates, with Tennessee–Tombigbee Waterway deterrent locations installed earlier in highly ranked sequences with increasing downstream movement rates. This analysis was time-limited owing to agency needs and represents Phase 1 of this project. Phase 2 expands Phase 1 to address additional uncertainties and more holistic management objectives and strategies.