Reliability diagram for the WFSP model

Reliability diagram for the WFSP model. On average the risk of spread was observed to be ~10 times greater when the predicted risk was extreme (risk category red; predicted class >=30) than when the predicted risk was moderate (risk category turquoise; predicted class 2-5). Between year variability is demonstrated by the length of the boxes and the extended whiskers. The horizontal line, at ~3%, is the overall observed historic average.