Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast Maps - 2007

Map on the left shows the expected number of M • 6.5 hypocenters in 0.1º × 0.1º bins in a 5- year period, predicted by Earthquake Rate Model 2.3. Map on the right shows the ratio obtained by dividing this expected value by the number of M • 6.5 events extrapolated from the expected number of M • 5.0 events using a b-value of 0.8. The hot colors on the right therefore indicate areas that have a greater number of M • 6.5 events than predicted by the Gutenberg-Richter distribution; i.e., these areas contribute to the “bulge” discussed in the text. Cascadia is not included. (Fig 19 from USGS Open-File Report 2007-1437)