ProDF: A tool for the rapid assessment of post-wildfire debris-flow inundation

Debris-flow runout modeling is not currently a standard component of post-wildfire debris-flow hazard assessments. The rapid nature of these assessments precludes the use of many established debris-flow runout models that are computationally expensive or require a number of parameters that may be difficult to constrain. As a result, our ability to predict and mitigate the downstream impacts of potential post-wildfire debris flows remains limited. In this talk, I will introduce the reduced-complexity Progressive Debris-Flow routing and inundation model (ProDF) as a potential tool for the rapid assessment of post-wildfire debris-flow inundation. I will discuss how ProDF performed against the observed inundation extent of the January 2018 post-wildfire debris flows in Montecito, California. I will also exhibit how ProDF performed when compared to observations of peak flow depth from the Montecito debris flows. Finally, I will present additional inundation scenarios from California and Arizona, and discuss how differences in geography and climate may affect model performance.

Gorr (2022) ProDF: A tool for the rapid assessment of post-wildfire debris-flow inundation. USGS Landslide Hazards Seminar, 28 September 2022.