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Publications

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Estimating aftershock risk for entry into earthquake-damaged buildings Estimating aftershock risk for entry into earthquake-damaged buildings

We present a simple method to estimate the risk of experiencing strong shaking from aftershocks during entry into earthquake-damaged buildings. We compute wait times until the probability of strong ground shaking from aftershocks reaches a predefined risk threshold; for example, a 0.4 percent probability of experiencing Modified Mercalli Intensity 7 or greater shaking during the planned...
Authors
Jeanne L. Hardebeck, Alan J. Poulos

Fully contained laboratory earthquakes: The effect of asperity aspect ratio and free surfaces Fully contained laboratory earthquakes: The effect of asperity aspect ratio and free surfaces

Corner frequency (fc) and seismic moment (M0) are key parameters derived from seismic signals that are used to characterize earthquake stress drop, rupture area, and slip. These parameters are also affected by fault geometry and boundary conditions. However, the systematic study of these effects in laboratory settings has been challenging. This study presents laboratory earthquake...
Authors
Sara Beth Cebry, Jun Young Song, Gregory C. McLaskey

CRESCENT earthquake dynamic rupture, earthquake cycle, and tsunami code verification platform CRESCENT earthquake dynamic rupture, earthquake cycle, and tsunami code verification platform

Physics-based simulations are critical for understanding natural hazards. The increasing complexity of numerical codes requires benchmark exercises to verify that different computational methods yield consistent results when solving the same governing equations. Here, we present an open-access web platform designed for the verification of earthquake dynamic rupture, seismic cycle, and...
Authors
Loic Bachelot, Fabian Kutschera, Michael Barall, Brittany Erickson, Eric Dunham, Alice-Agnes Gabriel, Ruth A. Harris, Shuo Ma, Amanda M. Thomas, Wenqiang Zhang

Corundum discovered by SuperCam and the Perseverance rover at Jezero crater, Mars Corundum discovered by SuperCam and the Perseverance rover at Jezero crater, Mars

Mars is primarily composed of mafic mineral assemblages and their alteration products, but small, scattered rocks strewn across the landscape offer clues to greater petrological diversity. While traversing the Jezero crater rim, the Perseverance rover encountered several plagioclase-rich light-toned float rocks. SuperCam identified the distinctive signature of corundum (α-Al2O3) in these...
Authors
A.M. Ollila, O. Beyssac, A. Fau, O. Forni, E. Clave, P.S.A. Beck, C. C. Bedford, V. Payre, E. Dehouck, S.A. Connell, J.A. Manrique, P. Pilleri, O. Gasnault, G.M. Martinez, A. Udry, S. Bernard, P. Gasda, T. Acosta-Maeda, R.B. Anderson, Travis S.J. Gabriel, F. Calef, J.F. Bell, J. N. Maki, S. Schroder, C. Quantin-Nataf, J.R. Johnson, B. Chide, K. Rammelkamp, F. Poulet, C. Royer, M. Rock, N.L. Lanza, S.K. Sharma, G. Lopez-Ryeys, T. Fouchet, J. Comellas, A. Zastrow, E. Coutis, R.C. Wiens, A. Cousin, S. Maurice, S. M. Clegg, P. Bernardi, T. Nelson

Simulation-based scenario ShakeMaps for large magnitude (MW6.5+) crustal earthquakes on the Seattle, Tacoma, and southern Whidbey Island faults, Washington, USA Simulation-based scenario ShakeMaps for large magnitude (MW6.5+) crustal earthquakes on the Seattle, Tacoma, and southern Whidbey Island faults, Washington, USA

Scenario ground‐motion maps based on empirical ground‐motion models (GMMs) provide a rapid and generally reliable means of estimating the amplitude and distribution of earthquake shaking. However, because GMMs are designed for broad applicability, they often rely on simplified representations of Earth structure, which can limit their accuracy in regions with complex source, path, and...
Authors
Ian P. Stone, Erin A. Wirth, Alex R. Grant, Julia Grossman, Arthur D. Frankel

Testing characteristic magnitude distributions in modern PSHA models Testing characteristic magnitude distributions in modern PSHA models

The characteristic magnitude distribution hypothesis predicts a higher rate of large earthquakes than a Gutenberg–Richter extrapolation of the small‐earthquake rate would imply. Characteristic magnitude distributions have been commonly applied to faults in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), and in modern models they can emerge from the way short‐term seismicity constraints are...
Authors
Morgan T. Page, Kevin Ross Milner, Edward H. Field

How to determine an earthquake rate budget? A comparison of geodetic, geologic, and seismologic moment rates How to determine an earthquake rate budget? A comparison of geodetic, geologic, and seismologic moment rates

How much tectonic geodetic strain is accommodated as earthquakes? Can estimates of tectonic geodetic strain be used in probabilistic seismic hazard analyses? Understanding the balance of moment accumulation (i.e., geodetic moment) and accommodation (i.e., geologic and seismologic moment) is a necessary step toward leveraging corrected geodetic strain rates to quantify earthquake budgets...
Authors
Alexandra Elise Hatem, Richard W. Briggs, Frederick Pollitz, Nadine G. Reitman, M. Morow Tan

Subsurface water ice mapping on Mars: A probabilistic approach Subsurface water ice mapping on Mars: A probabilistic approach

Subsurface water ice deposits on Mars are an important resource for potential future human exploration. They are also an indicator of the planet’s past climate. However, the distribution of subsurface water ice in Mars’s midlatitudes is uncertain because spacecraft imagery cannot directly observe subsurface ice in most cases. Various spacecraft remote sensing instruments are sensitive to
Authors
Samuel W Courville, Nathaniel E Putzig, Gareth A Morgan, Asmin Pathare, Colin M. Dundas, David M. H. Baker, Ali Bramson, Rachael H. Hoover, Stefano Nerozzi, Matthew R. Perry, Megan Russell, Hanna G. Sizemore

Velocity-independent dry friction on mica: A realization of ideal Amontons-Coulomb friction Velocity-independent dry friction on mica: A realization of ideal Amontons-Coulomb friction

The Amontons-Coulomb friction law assumes that the frictional force between materials is independent of sliding velocity. However, as Coulomb noted, this is a rough approximation, and a second-order dependence of friction on the logarithm of sliding velocity is incorporated in a commonly used ‘rate- and state-dependent’ friction representation. Here we conduct shear experiments on mica...
Authors
Hiroshi Sakuma, Diane E. Moore, David A. Lockner, Toshihiro Kogure

Amazonian mass balance history of Martian ice reservoirs: Current knowledge and uncertainties Amazonian mass balance history of Martian ice reservoirs: Current knowledge and uncertainties

A major part of the history of the Amazonian period on Mars is the movement of water ice between near-surface reservoirs across the planet. This work assesses the ages and volumes of different parts of the Martian water ice inventory over the last ∼1 Gyr, to reconstruct the time history of ice reservoirs to the extent that it is currently known and determine whether they provide a mass...
Authors
Colin M. Dundas

Thermal detectability of subsurface water ice on Mars: A comparative analysis for the Subsurface Water Ice Mapping (SWIM) Project Thermal detectability of subsurface water ice on Mars: A comparative analysis for the Subsurface Water Ice Mapping (SWIM) Project

We have developed a new global map of shallow ground ice distribution, SWIM23, based on Mars Global Surveyor Thermal Emission Spectrometer data and made systematic comparisons between this new map and two similar, previously developed data products. We have explored the origin of differences between the three ice maps by detailing technical and procedural differences in their development...
Authors
H. G. Sizemore, A. V. Pathare, Colin M. Dundas, N. E. Putzig, G. A. Morgan, M. R. Perry, M. T. Mellon, Z. M. Bain, S. W. Courville
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