With the iconic monarch butterfly’s recent addition to the endangered species list, identifying areas where populations are growing or holding constant provides hope that the declines may be slowed or reversed. For the eastern monarch butterfly, the Midwest U.S is a critical breeding area, but climate change is furthering local population declines. Using extensive data sets and forecasting models, a research team supported in part by the Midwest CASC worked with scientists, community leaders and natural resource managers to identify breeding grounds in the Midwest and Ontario, Canada that are projected to be the least impacted by climate change. This information can be used to aid resource managers in locating areas their work may be the most impactful under the uncertainty of future climate conditions.  

This work is supported by the Midwest CASC project, “Evaluating the Role of Climate on Midwestern Butterfly Trajectories, Monarch Declines, and the Broader “Insect Apocalypse”.