Widely available weather data has been commonly used to determine an areas risk for destructive fire. However, as wildfires become more severe and frequent, fire managers are exploring new ways to strengthen fire prediction systems.  

Researchers supported by the South Central CASC, the National Integrated Drought Information System, and the NASA applied sciences program have found that soil science can contribute to improved fire predictions that can replace outdated drought indices. Low soil moisture can cause plants to stop growing or dry out, providing fuel for dangerous fires and serve as an indicator of wildfire vulnerability.  

Recognizing the limited number of monitoring stations on the ground and that satellites can have trouble collecting data through forest canopies, the researchers developed TOPOFIRE, a computer model that extends the existing data into new areas and more accurately accounts for the effects of topography on soil moisture, an especially useful feature for predicting fire danger in mountainous regions.  

The research team hopes to incorporate TOPOFIRE into other fire prediction systems as well as combine it with additional sources of soil moisture data to help managers better understand and respond to wildfires. 

This work is supported by the South Central CASC project, “Wildfire Probability Mapping Based on Regional Soil Moisture Models”.