Residents living along the coast of Lake Ontario and the St. Lawrence River have experienced two record-setting floods, one in 2017 and another in 2019. These floods caused tremendous property damage and disruptions to the regional economy. The water levels on Lake Ontario are influenced by the operations of the Moses Saunders Dam on the St. Lawrence River. These operations are determined by the International Joint Commission and are required to balance several competing objectives (e.g., navigation, flood control, recreational boating, hydropower).
Recently, the International Joint Commission altered the operational plan to help restore coastal wetlands. The floods of 2017 and 2019 followed soon after, and communities attribute the flooding to the new plan. However, rainfall also set records in 2017 and 2019, and there are physical limits to how much flooding can be prevented by the dam. Regional rainfall and temperatures have also been trending upward for decades, leading to changes in the lake’s hydrology.
The 2017 and 2019 floods and trends in regional climate highlight the importance of answering the following questions: 1) How can water levels on Lake Ontario be managed to balance stakeholder needs as the climate continues to change? and 2) What actions could local shoreline communities take to protect themselves from high and low water levels, regardless of the management plan in place? This project seeks to answer these questions. Computational modeling will be used to explore how and when lake level management could change to buffer the impacts of climate change. In addition, this project will identify barriers that prevent local communities from enacting their own protective actions, and strategies to overcome these barriers. The results will inform the Lake Ontario community as they become better prepared for continued changes in regional climate.
