Fellow Project: Structured Decision Making for Navajo Rangelands Through Co-produced Computer Simulation State and Transition Modeling Completed
Learn about the research of Anthony Ciocco, a 2021 Science to Action Fellow.
Fellow Information
- Anthony Ciocco, Oregon State University
- Fellowship: 2021 Science to Action Fellow
- Mentor: Mike Langston, South Central CASC
Project Summary
This project will work with local managers to co-produce a scientific analysis of management strategies for rangelands in the Navajo Partitioned Lands. Final products will include a small field guide for tribal ranchers, a computer simulation model of management scenarios for the Bureau of Indian Affairs and Navajo Nation natural resource managers, and a policy analysis for the Navajo Nation Council. The field guide will provide tribal grazing permit holders with a conceptual framework for identifying rangelands states and stewarding their lands to avoid undesirable transitions. The computer simulation will be modeled in the ST-sim software. This model will draw from existing data and local knowledge on historical and current ecological states and transitions. Scenarios including climate change, wild horse round-ups, livestock reductions, livestock rest, and water infrastructure development will be modeled. Simulation outcomes will be assessed for multiple objectives including livestock production, wildlife habitat, and cultural uses. The results will inform a structured decision making approach utilizing a Bayesian decision network that will convey social and ecological tradeoffs to decision makers, presented in the form of a policy analysis.
Products
- Final Report (download)
Learn about the research of Anthony Ciocco, a 2021 Science to Action Fellow.
Fellow Information
- Anthony Ciocco, Oregon State University
- Fellowship: 2021 Science to Action Fellow
- Mentor: Mike Langston, South Central CASC
Project Summary
This project will work with local managers to co-produce a scientific analysis of management strategies for rangelands in the Navajo Partitioned Lands. Final products will include a small field guide for tribal ranchers, a computer simulation model of management scenarios for the Bureau of Indian Affairs and Navajo Nation natural resource managers, and a policy analysis for the Navajo Nation Council. The field guide will provide tribal grazing permit holders with a conceptual framework for identifying rangelands states and stewarding their lands to avoid undesirable transitions. The computer simulation will be modeled in the ST-sim software. This model will draw from existing data and local knowledge on historical and current ecological states and transitions. Scenarios including climate change, wild horse round-ups, livestock reductions, livestock rest, and water infrastructure development will be modeled. Simulation outcomes will be assessed for multiple objectives including livestock production, wildlife habitat, and cultural uses. The results will inform a structured decision making approach utilizing a Bayesian decision network that will convey social and ecological tradeoffs to decision makers, presented in the form of a policy analysis.
Products
- Final Report (download)