Future of Aquatic Flows: Impacts of Cryospheric Change on Aquatic Flows and Freshwater Habitat Quality for Fish and Communities Active

High latitude northern ecosystems are currently warming twice as fast as the global average. These temperature increases over the last several decades have led to dramatic declines in the terrestrial cryosphere in Arctic and sub-Arctic ecosystems, through the melting of coastal mountain glaciers, thawing of permafrost, and changes in snowpack.. Therefore, characterizing freshwater habitat for salmonfish in Alaska is becoming an increasingly important component of watershed management in light of rapid environmental changes across  the Arctic and sub-Arctic.  

This project proposes a highly collaborative effort among a variety of state agencies, federal agencies and non-profit organizations focused on three overarching questions. First, what are the impacts of cryospheric melt on the quality of freshwater habitat  for Pacific salmonfish? Second, how will continued warming and changes to aquatic flows from a changing cryosphere impact ecosystems and communities? Third, how will climate-driven changes in the frequency of extreme events impact communities and ecosystems? A food-web simulation model will be used to explore how the physical and biological characteristics  of rivers with cryospheric reserves (e.g., glacier, snowmelt, permafrost) influence the ability of watersheds to support juvenile salmon. In addition,  the  model will incorporate  projected changes to key parameters identified by partner engagement (e.g., flow patterns , temperature, nutrients) to examine how environmental changes may influence the growth of juvenile salmon in various regions of Alaska. These efforts will provide a basis for deriving future climate scenarios of salmon production and identify regions within Alaska where salmon populations may be particularly vulnerable.