Modeling to Support Grazing Management Planning in U.S. National Parks: A Case Study from Dinosaur National Monument

The National Park Service is responsible for managing livestock grazing on 94 locations across the country and several grazing management planning efforts for this work are underway. However, there is a recognized need to update grazing management plans to address potential future effects of climate change on related resources and practices. This is the second phase of a project that is using scenario planning (a strategic planning technique used to inform decision-making in the face of uncertain future conditions) to support grazing management at Dinosaur National Monument. In the first phase of the project (Integrating Climate Considerations into Grazing Management Programs in National Parks), the research team  convened a participatory climate change scenario planning workshop to qualitatively assess how grazing resources and management at Dinosaur National Monument may be affected under climate change.

Now in phase two, this project will develop an ecological modeling approach to provide quantitative information about potential future scenarios to grazing management planning, continuing with Dinosaur National Monument as a case study. It will leverage recent advances in modeling to estimate the combined effects of climate change scenarios and alternative management actions (e.g., stocking rates, prescribed fire, and invasive plant management) on rangeland vegetation. The results of this project will add to the development of a transferable process to help parks ensure that grazing management practices are responsive and adaptive to future climate change.