Projected Climate and Land Use Change Impacts on Aquatic Habitats in the Midwestern United States (Regional Assessment) Completed

The overall goal of the Midwestern regional-scale assessment was to identify river reaches in the Glacial Lakes Partnership regions (focusing on Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin) that are most vulnerable to potential impacts of projected climate and land use changes. Because fish assemblages are strongly influenced by river water temperature and flow regimes, which are in turn affected by climate and land-use conditions, we will attempt to model fish habitat response to climate and land use changes through changes in temperature and flow. This project intended to: (1) develop three models that predict daily summer temperature for all river reaches in each state; (2) develop a single model to predict non-winter flow regimes for all river reaches in the region; (3) develop relational models among fish, water temperature regime, and flow regime; and (4) develop fish habitat scores that allow us to compare the fish assemblages, water temperature, and flow regimes under current and future climate and land-use conditions.