Drought events have cost the U.S. nearly $245 billion since 1980, with costs ranging from $2 to $44 billion in any given year. However, these socio-economic losses are not the only impacts of drought. Ecosystems, fish, wildlife, and plants also suffer, and these types of drought impacts are becoming more commonplace. Further, ecosystems that recover from drought are now doing so under different climate conditions than they have experienced in the past few centuries. As temperature and precipitation patterns change, “transformational drought”, or drought events that can permanently and irreversibly alter ecosystems – such as forests converting to grasslands – are a growing threat. This type of drought has cascading implications, including the potential to alter the ability of ecosystems to provide important services to human communities.
Managers of our public lands have expressed a need for baseline science to support their decision-making processes about how to best manage the ecological impacts of drought and drought recovery in the 21st century. By synthesizing the state of the science on transformational drought, researchers will provide managers with a better understanding of the potential for and the future impacts of transformational drought across the country. Researchers will also develop a case study that allows managers to explore how targeted science that is specific to ecological transformation can improve the decision-making process.
The team of scientists will work closely with a group of federal land managers, including from the Bureau of Land Management, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, National Park Service, and U.S. Forest Service, to ensure that the project products will support federal efforts to navigate ecological transformation on these lands. Ultimately, this project will provide solutions-oriented science to help resource managers prepare for transformational drought.
