Understanding Future Fire Frequency and Impacts on Species Distribution in the South Central U.S. Completed

Fire is critical to maintaining and restoring temperate ecosystems in the South Central U.S. As precipitation patterns and temperatures change in the region, managers require information on how these changes will impact fire frequency, and thus the species and ecosystems within the landscape.



To address this need, researchers will use climate model data to predict and map future changes in fire frequency for Texas, Oklahoma, and New Mexico. Researchers will then examine species and ecosystem distribution data to understand the relationship between climate, fire frequency, and species occurrence. This analysis will enable researchers to identify potential future distributions of woody ecosystems and species such as mesquite and eastern red cedar.



The results of this project will help resource managers understand where on the landscape they can expect more frequent and less frequent fires due to changes in climate, and which areas may transition toward other ecosystem types as a result of these changing conditions. Information gathered from this project will assist planning for activities such as fuels management and prescribed fire over the long term.