Publications
Educational Publications
Educational Publications
Selected publications about earthquakes In plain language.
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The science, engineering applications, and policy implications of simulation-based PSHA The science, engineering applications, and policy implications of simulation-based PSHA
We summarize scientific methods for developing probabilistic seismic hazard assessments from 3-D earthquake ground motion simulations, describe current use of simulated ground motions for engineering applications, and discuss on-going efforts to incorporate these effects in the U.S. national seismic hazard model. The 3-D simulations provide important, additional information about...
Authors
Morgan P. Moschetti, Sandra P. Chang, C.B Crouse, Arthur D. Frankel, Robert Graves, H Puangnak, Nico Luco, Christine A. Goulet, Sanaz Rezaeian, Allison Shumway, Peter M. Powers, Mark D. Petersen, Scott Callaghan, T.H. Jordan, Kevin R. Milner
Candidate products for operational earthquake forecasting illustrated using the HayWired planning scenario, including one very quick (and not‐so‐dirty) hazard‐map option Candidate products for operational earthquake forecasting illustrated using the HayWired planning scenario, including one very quick (and not‐so‐dirty) hazard‐map option
In an effort to help address debates on the usefulness of operational earthquake forecasting (OEF), we illustrate a number of OEF products that could be automatically generated in near‐real time. To exemplify, we use an M 7.1 mainshock on the Hayward fault, which is very similar to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) HayWired earthquake planning scenario. Given that there is always some...
Authors
Edward H. Field, Kevin R. Milner
Frictional properties and 3-D stress analysis of the southern Alpine Fault, New Zealand Frictional properties and 3-D stress analysis of the southern Alpine Fault, New Zealand
New Zealand's Alpine Fault (AF) ruptures quasi-periodically in large-magnitude earthquakes. Paleoseismological evidence suggests that about half of all recognized AF earthquakes terminated at the boundary between the Central and South Westland sections of the fault. There, fault geometry and the polarity of uplift change. The South Westland AF exhibits oblique-normal fault motion on a...
Authors
Carolyn Boulton, Nicolas C. Barth, Diane E. Moore, David A. Lockner, John Townend, Daniel R. Faulkner
To catch a quake To catch a quake
A revolution in seismic detection technology is underway, capturing unprecedented observations of earthquakes and their impacts. These sensor innovations provide real-time ground shaking observations that could improve emergency response following damaging earthquakes and may advance our understanding of the physics of earthquake ruptures.
Authors
Elizabeth S. Cochran
Using geologic structures to constrain constitutive laws not accessible in the laboratory Using geologic structures to constrain constitutive laws not accessible in the laboratory
In this essay, we explore a central problem of structural geology today, and in the foreseeable future, which is the determination of constitutive laws governing rock deformation to produce geologic structures. Although laboratory experiments provide much needed data and insights about constitutive laws, these experiments cannot cover the range of conditions and compositions relevant to...
Authors
Johanna Nevitt, Jessica M. Warren, Kathryn M. Kumamoto, David D. Pollard
Why aftershock duration matters for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment Why aftershock duration matters for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment
Most hazard assessments assume that high background seismicity rates indicate a higher probability of large shocks and, therefore, of strong shaking. However, in slowly deforming regions, such as eastern North America, Australia, and inner Honshu, this assumption breaks down if the seismicity clusters are instead aftershocks of historic and prehistoric mainshocks. Here, therefore we...
Authors
Shinji Toda, Ross S. Stein
ShakeMap-based prediction of earthquake-induced mass movements in Switzerland calibrated on historical observations ShakeMap-based prediction of earthquake-induced mass movements in Switzerland calibrated on historical observations
In Switzerland, nearly all historical Mw ~ 6 earthquakes have induced damaging landslides, rockslides and snow avalanches that, in some cases, also resulted in damage to infrastructure and loss of lives. We describe the customisation to Swiss conditions of a globally calibrated statistical approach originally developed to rapidly assess earthquake-induced landslide likelihoods worldwide...
Authors
Carlo Cauzzi, Donat Fah, David J. Wald, John Clinton, Stephane Losey, Stefan Wiemer
Regional spectral analysis of moderate earthquakes in northeastern North America—Final Report to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Project V6240, Task 3 Regional spectral analysis of moderate earthquakes in northeastern North America—Final Report to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Project V6240, Task 3
We analyze the Fourier spectra of S+Lg+surface wave groups from the horizontal and vertical components of broadband and accelerogram recordings of 120 small and moderate (2< Mw
Authors
Jack Boatwright
Analysis of mean seismic ground motion and its uncertainty based on the UCERF3 geologic slip rate model with uncertainty for California Analysis of mean seismic ground motion and its uncertainty based on the UCERF3 geologic slip rate model with uncertainty for California
The Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast v.3 (UCERF3) model (Field et al., 2014) considers epistemic uncertainty in fault‐slip rate via the inclusion of multiple rate models based on geologic and/or geodetic data. However, these slip rates are commonly clustered about their mean value and do not reflect the broader distribution of possible rates and associated probabilities...
Authors
Yuehua Zeng
Landslides triggered by the 14 November 2016 Mw 7.8 Kaikōura Earthquake, New Zealand Landslides triggered by the 14 November 2016 Mw 7.8 Kaikōura Earthquake, New Zealand
The 14 November 2016 MwMw 7.8 Kaikōura earthquake generated more than 10,000 landslides over a total area of about 10,000 km210,000 km2, with the majority concentrated in a smaller area of about 3600 km23600 km2. The largest landslide triggered by the earthquake had an approximate volume of 20(±2) M m320(±2) M m3, with a runout distance of about 2.7 km, forming a dam on the Hapuku...
Authors
C. Massey, D. Townsend, Ellen Rathje, Kate E. Allstadt, B. Lukovic, Yoshihiro Kaneko, Brendon A. Bradley, J. Wartman, Randall W. Jibson, D. N. Petley, Nick Horspool, I. Hamling, J. Carey, S. Cox, John Davidson, S. Dellow, Jonathan W. Godt, Christopher Holden, Katherine D. Jones, Anna E. Kaiser, M. Little, B. Lyndsell, S. McColl, R. Morgenstern, Francis K. Rengers, D. Rhoades, B. Rosser, D. Strong, C. Singeisen, M. Villeneuve
Preface to the Focus Section on the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP): New results and future directions Preface to the Focus Section on the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP): New results and future directions
The Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP; Jordan, 2006) carries out fully prospective tests of earthquake forecasts, using fixed and standardized statistical tests and authoritative data sets, to assess the predictive skill of forecast models and to make objective comparisons between models. CSEP conducts prospective experiments at four testing centers around...
Authors
Andrew J. Michael, Maximillian J. Werner
Ensemble smoothed seismicity models for the new Italian Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Map Ensemble smoothed seismicity models for the new Italian Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Map
We develop a long‐term (a few decades or longer) earthquake rate forecast for Italy based on smoothed seismicity for incorporation in the 2017–2018 Italian Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Maps (IPSHM). Because the earthquake rate models from previous IPSHM were computed using source zones that were drawn around seismicity and tectonic provinces, the present model will be the first...
Authors
Aybige Akinci, Morgan P. Moschetti, Matteo Taroni