Publications

We present a simple method to estimate the risk of experiencing strong shaking from aftershocks during entry into earthquake-damaged buildings. We compute wait times until the probability of strong ground shaking from aftershocks reaches a predefined risk threshold; for example, a 0.4 percent probability of experiencing Modified Mercalli Intensity 7 or greater shaking during the planned...

Physics-based simulations are critical for understanding natural hazards. The increasing complexity of numerical codes requires benchmark exercises to verify that different computational methods yield consistent results when solving the same governing equations. Here, we present an open-access web platform designed for the verification of earthquake dynamic rupture, seismic cycle, and...

Scenario ground‐motion maps based on empirical ground‐motion models (GMMs) provide a rapid and generally reliable means of estimating the amplitude and distribution of earthquake shaking. However, because GMMs are designed for broad applicability, they often rely on simplified representations of Earth structure, which can limit their accuracy in regions with complex source, path, and...

The characteristic magnitude distribution hypothesis predicts a higher rate of large earthquakes than a Gutenberg–Richter extrapolation of the small‐earthquake rate would imply. Characteristic magnitude distributions have been commonly applied to faults in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), and in modern models they can emerge from the way short‐term seismicity constraints are...

The Amontons-Coulomb friction law assumes that the frictional force between materials is independent of sliding velocity. However, as Coulomb noted, this is a rough approximation, and a second-order dependence of friction on the logarithm of sliding velocity is incorporated in a commonly used ‘rate- and state-dependent’ friction representation. Here we conduct shear experiments on mica...

In this study, we derive generic site amplification functions applicable to Northwestern Türkiye and follow guidance on site classifications established by the United States National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP). We employ the one-dimensional (1-D) equivalent linear ground response analysis method and focus on recordings from a select suite of free-field strong motion (SM...

Macroseismic data are a key resource to investigate shaking and damage from preinstrumental and early instrumental eras. However, data are often stored as inconsistently formatted reports describing observed shaking and damage, making manually parsing and interpreting accounts labor‐intensive. We introduce a novel workflow using Google’s Gemini 2.5 Pro large language model (LLM) to...

The Cascadia subduction zone (CSZ) hosts major seismic and tsunami hazards, yet key questions persist about the relationship between margin structure, fluid distribution, episodic tremor and slip, shallow megathrust behavior, shaking and tsunamigenesis, and the resulting hazard estimates. Addressing these problems requires an empirically grounded, three‐dimensional seismic velocity model...

Source–station distance is a central input to ground‐motion models (GMMs) for predicting seismic shaking. GMM development uses distance metrics including the Joyner–Boore distance, which is the shortest distance from an observation point to the surface projection of the earthquake rupture, and Rrup the shortest distance to the rupture in three dimensions. Thompson and Baltay (2018)...

This report documents a previously unmapped fault, informally referred to herein as the North Meadow Creek fault, on the east flank of the Tobacco Mountains of southwestern Montana. This fault has an apparently long and complex history, including Quaternary offset of an older alluvial terrace, offset of a debris flow of presumed Pleistocene age, offset of rhyolite lava flows of presumed...

Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) offers a promising approach for earthquake early warning (EEW) in settings where seismic networks are costly to maintain. By repurposing fiber-optic cables as dense strainmeter arrays, DAS enables real-time earthquake detection wherever those fibers are accessible. However, poor azimuthal coverage and challenges in estimating magnitude from strain...

With over a century since the last major rupture affecting the wider Los Angeles region, tectonic stress has steadily built along the southern San Andreas and San Jacinto fault systems, raising concerns of an imminent large earthquake. Cajon Pass, located at the junction of these faults, represents a critical site for potential through-going ruptures in Southern California. We...