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Long-term creep rates on the Hayward Fault: Evidence for controls on the size and frequency of large earthquakes Long-term creep rates on the Hayward Fault: Evidence for controls on the size and frequency of large earthquakes

The Hayward fault (HF) in California exhibits large (Mw 6.5–7.1) earthquakes with short recurrence times (161±65 yr), probably kept short by a 26%–78% aseismic release rate (including postseismic). Its interseismic release rate varies locally over time, as we infer from many decades of surface creep data. Earliest estimates of creep rate, primarily from infrequent surveys of offset...
Authors
James J. Lienkaemper, Forrest S. McFarland, Robert W. Simpson, Roger G. Bilham, David A. Ponce, John Boatwright, S. John Caskey

Effects of smectite to illite transformation on the frictional strength and sliding stability of intact marine mudstones Effects of smectite to illite transformation on the frictional strength and sliding stability of intact marine mudstones

At subduction zones, earthquake nucleation and coseismic slip occur only within a limited depth range, known as the “seismogenic zone”. One leading hypothesis for the upper aseismic-seismic transition is that transformation of smectite to illite at ∼100–150°C triggers a change from rate-strengthening frictional behavior that allows only stable sliding, to rate weakening behavior...
Authors
Demian M. Saffer, David A. Lockner, Alex McKiernan

Do aftershock probabilities decay with time? Do aftershock probabilities decay with time?

So, do aftershock probabilities decay with time? Consider a thought experiment in which we are at the time of the mainshock and ask how many aftershocks will occur a day, week, month, year, or even a century from now. First we must decide how large a window to use around each point in time. Let's assume that, as we go further into the future, we are asking a less precise question...
Authors
Andrew J. Michael

Post-earthquake building safety assessments for the Canterbury Earthquakes Post-earthquake building safety assessments for the Canterbury Earthquakes

This paper explores the post-earthquake building assessment program that was utilized in Christchurch, New Zealand following the Canterbury Sequence of earthquakes beginning with the Magnitude (Mw.) 7.1 Darfield event in September 2010. The aftershocks or triggered events, two of which exceeded Mw 6.0, continued with events in February and June 2011 causing the greatest amount of damage...
Authors
J. Marshall, J. Barnes, N. Gould, K. Jaiswal, B. Lizundia, David A. Swanson, F. Turner

Heavy tails and earthquake probabilities Heavy tails and earthquake probabilities

The 21st century has already seen its share of devastating earthquakes, some of which have been labeled as “unexpected,” at least in the eyes of some seismologists and more than a few journalists. A list of seismological surprises could include the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman Islands; 2008 Wenchuan, China; 2009 Haiti; 2011 Christchurch, New Zealand; and 2011 Tohoku, Japan, earthquakes
Authors
William L. Ellsworth

Implications of NGA for NEHRP site coefficients Implications of NGA for NEHRP site coefficients

Three proposals are provided to update tables 11.4-1 and 11.4-2 of Minimum Design Loads for Buildings and Other Structures (7-10), by the American Society of Civil Engineers (2010) (ASCE/SEI 7-10), with site coefficients implied directly by NGA (Next Generation Attenuation) ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs). Proposals include a recommendation to use straight-line interpolation...
Authors
Roger D. Borcherdt

Updated determination of stress parameters for nine well-recorded earthquakes in eastern North America Updated determination of stress parameters for nine well-recorded earthquakes in eastern North America

Stress parameters (Δσ) are determined for nine relatively well-recorded earthquakes in eastern North America for ten attenuation models. This is an update of a previous study by Boore et al. (2010). New to this paper are observations from the 2010 Val des Bois earthquake, additional observations for the 1988 Saguenay and 2005 Riviere du Loup earthquakes, and consideration of six...
Authors
David M. Boore

The western limits of the Seattle fault zone and its interaction with the Olympic Peninsula, Washington The western limits of the Seattle fault zone and its interaction with the Olympic Peninsula, Washington

We present evidence that the Seattle fault zone of Washington State extends to the west edge of the Puget Lowland and is kinemati-cally linked to active faults that border the Olympic Massif, including the Saddle Moun-tain deformation zone. Newly acquired high-resolution seismic reflection and marine magnetic data suggest that the Seattle fault zone extends west beyond the Seattle Basin...
Authors
A.P. Lamb, L.M. Liberty, Richard J. Blakely, Thomas L. Pratt, B.L. Sherrod, K. Van Wijk

Ambient response of a unique performance-based design building with dynamic response modification features Ambient response of a unique performance-based design building with dynamic response modification features

A 64-story, performance-based design building with reinforced concrete core shear-walls and unique dynamic response modification features (tuned liquid sloshing dampers and buckling-restrained braces) has been instrumented with a monitoring array of 72 channels of accelerometers. Ambient vibration data recorded are analyzed to identify modes and associated frequencies and damping. The...
Authors
Mehmet Çelebi, Moh Huang, Antony Shakal, John Hooper, Ron Klemencic

Laboratory triggering of stick-slip events by oscillatory loading in the presence of pore fluid with implications for physics of tectonic tremor Laboratory triggering of stick-slip events by oscillatory loading in the presence of pore fluid with implications for physics of tectonic tremor

The physical mechanism by which the low-frequency earthquakes (LFEs) that make up portions of tectonic (also called non-volcanic) tremor are created is poorly understood. In many areas of the world, tectonic tremor and LFEs appear to be strongly tidally modulated, whereas ordinary earthquakes are not. Anomalous seismic wave speeds, interpreted as high pore fluid pressure, have been...
Authors
Noel M. Bartlow, David A. Lockner, Nicholas M. Beeler

Laboratory observations of fault strength in response to changes in normal stress Laboratory observations of fault strength in response to changes in normal stress

Changes in fault normal stress can either inhibit or promote rupture propagation, depending on the fault geometry and on how fault shear strength varies in response to the normal stress change. A better understanding of this dependence will lead to improved earthquake simulation techniques, and ultimately, improved earthquake hazard mitigation efforts. We present the results of new...
Authors
Brian D. Kilgore, Julian Lozos, Nicholas M. Beeler, David Oglesby
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