The 2018 Update of the U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model defines the potential for earthquake ground shaking for various probability levels across the conterminous United States and is applied in seismic provisions of building codes, insurance rate structures, risk assessments, and other public policy. The updated model represents an assessment of the best available science in earthquake hazards and incorporates new findings on earthquake ground shaking, seismicity, and long-period amplification over deep sedimentary basins. The new model represents an update of the seismic hazard model; previous versions were developed in 1996, 2002, 2008, and 2014.
The output from the National Seismic Hazard Model is a suite of seismic hazard curves calculated on a grid of latitude/longitude locations across the conterminous United States that describe the annual frequency of exceeding a set of ground motions. Hazard curves and probabilistic hazard data and maps for VS30 equal to 760 m/s and 260 m/s (NEHRP site class B/C and D), for 0.2, 1.0, and 5.0 second periods, as well as PGA, are available for download below, in the Child Items. Maps depict probabilistic ground motions with a 2 percent, 5 percent, and 10 percent probability of exceedance in 50 years. Spectral accelerations are calculated for 5 percent damped linear elastic oscillators. Additional maps and data portraying the chance of damaging earthquake shaking, probabilistic Modified Mercalli Intensity, and the seismicity catalog used in the hazard model are also available for download.
Maps for Media: Click on image to access hi-resolution version.
Software (not officially published):
Data Release for PGV Data for the 2018 National Seismic Hazard Model for the Conterminous United States
Data Release for Additional Period and Site Class Data for the 2018 National Seismic Hazard Model for the Conterminous United States (ver. 1.1, February 2020)
Data Release for the 2018 Update of the U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model: Where, Why, and How Much Probabilistic Ground Motion Maps Changed
Data Release for 2018 Update of the U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model
Earthquake catalogs compiled for the USGS National Seismic Hazard Maps, October 2017
The 2018 update of the US National Seismic Hazard Model: Ground motion models in the central and eastern US
The 2018 update of the US National Seismic Hazard Model: Where, why, and how much probabilistic ground motion maps changed
The 2018 update of the US National Seismic Hazard Model: Additional period and site class data
The 2018 update of the US National Seismic Hazard Model: Overview of model and implications
- Overview
The 2018 Update of the U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model defines the potential for earthquake ground shaking for various probability levels across the conterminous United States and is applied in seismic provisions of building codes, insurance rate structures, risk assessments, and other public policy. The updated model represents an assessment of the best available science in earthquake hazards and incorporates new findings on earthquake ground shaking, seismicity, and long-period amplification over deep sedimentary basins. The new model represents an update of the seismic hazard model; previous versions were developed in 1996, 2002, 2008, and 2014.
The output from the National Seismic Hazard Model is a suite of seismic hazard curves calculated on a grid of latitude/longitude locations across the conterminous United States that describe the annual frequency of exceeding a set of ground motions. Hazard curves and probabilistic hazard data and maps for VS30 equal to 760 m/s and 260 m/s (NEHRP site class B/C and D), for 0.2, 1.0, and 5.0 second periods, as well as PGA, are available for download below, in the Child Items. Maps depict probabilistic ground motions with a 2 percent, 5 percent, and 10 percent probability of exceedance in 50 years. Spectral accelerations are calculated for 5 percent damped linear elastic oscillators. Additional maps and data portraying the chance of damaging earthquake shaking, probabilistic Modified Mercalli Intensity, and the seismicity catalog used in the hazard model are also available for download.
2018 Long-term National Seismic Hazard Map (Public domain.) Maps for Media: Click on image to access hi-resolution version.
Software (not officially published):
- Data
Data Release for PGV Data for the 2018 National Seismic Hazard Model for the Conterminous United States
Peak ground velocity (PGV) gridded probabilistic seismic hazard data for the updated 2018 National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) for the Conterminous United States (CONUS). PGV hazard curves and ground motions have been calculated on a 0.05 by 0.05 degree grid using the NSHM CONUS 2018 earthquake source model. PGV support has been incorporated into the NSHM using a newly developed PGV model conditioData Release for Additional Period and Site Class Data for the 2018 National Seismic Hazard Model for the Conterminous United States (ver. 1.1, February 2020)
The updated 2018 National Seismic Hazard Model includes new ground motion models, aleatory uncertainty, and soil amplification factors for the central and eastern U.S. and incorporates basin depths from local seismic velocity models in four western U.S. (WUS) urban areas. These additions allow us, for the first time, to calculate probabilistic seismic hazard curves for an expanded set of spectralData Release for the 2018 Update of the U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model: Where, Why, and How Much Probabilistic Ground Motion Maps Changed
This dataset presents where, why, and how much probabilistic ground motions have changed with the 2018 update of the National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) for the conterminous U.S. (CONUS) vs. the 2014 NSHM. In the central and eastern U.S., hazard changes are the result of updated ground motion models (further broken down by median and epistemic uncertainty, aleatory variability, and site effects mData Release for 2018 Update of the U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model
The 2018 Update of the U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model defines the potential for earthquake ground shaking for various probability levels across the conterminous United States and is applied in seismic provisions of building codes, insurance rate structures, risk assessments, and other public policy. The updated model represents an assessment of the best available science in earthquake hazardsEarthquake catalogs compiled for the USGS National Seismic Hazard Maps, October 2017
The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) national seismic hazard models (NSHM) consider two kinds of earthquake sources. Specific faults are modeled where possible. Where faults cannot be identified or characterized, alternative sources can be developed from seismicity catalogs. In a paper submitted to Seismological Research Letters ("Related External Resources", below), we describe a methodology that ha - Publications
The 2018 update of the US National Seismic Hazard Model: Ground motion models in the central and eastern US
The United States Geological Survey (USGS) National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) is the scientific foundation of seismic design regulations in the United States and is regularly updated to consider the best available science and data. The 2018 update of the conterminous US NSHM includes major changes to the underlying ground motion models (GMMs). Most of the changes are motivated by the new multi-pAuthorsSanaz Rezaeian, Peter M. Powers, Allison Shumway, Mark D. Petersen, Nicolas Luco, Arthur Frankel, Morgan P. Moschetti, Eric M. Thompson, Daniel McNamaraThe 2018 update of the US National Seismic Hazard Model: Where, why, and how much probabilistic ground motion maps changed
The 2018 US Geological Survey National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) incorporates new data and updated science to improve the underlying earthquake and ground motion forecasts for the conterminous United States. The NSHM considers many new data and component input models: (1) new earthquakes between 2013 and 2017 and updated earthquake magnitudes for some earlier earthquakes; (2) two updated smootheAuthorsMark D. Petersen, Allison Shumway, Peter M. Powers, Charles S Mueller, Morgan P. Moschetti, Arthur Frankel, Sanaz Rezaeian, Daniel McNamara, Nicolas Luco, Oliver S. Boyd, Kenneth S. Rukstales, Kishor Jaiswal, Eric M. Thompson, Susan M. Hoover, Brandon Clayton, Edward H. Field, Yuehua ZengThe 2018 update of the US National Seismic Hazard Model: Additional period and site class data
As part of the update of the 2018 National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) for the conterminous United States (CONUS), new ground motion and site effect models for the central and eastern United States were incorporated, as well as basin depths from local seismic velocity models in four western US (WUS) urban areas. These additions allow us, for the first time, to calculate probabilistic seismic hazarAuthorsAllison Shumway, Mark D. Petersen, Peter M. Powers, Sanaz Rezaeian, Kenneth S. Rukstales, Brandon ClaytonThe 2018 update of the US National Seismic Hazard Model: Overview of model and implications
During 2017–2018, the National Seismic Hazard Model for the conterminous United States was updated as follows: (1) an updated seismicity catalog was incorporated, which includes new earthquakes that occurred from 2013 to 2017; (2) in the central and eastern United States (CEUS), new ground motion models were updated that incorporate updated median estimates, modified assessments of the associatedAuthorsMark D. Petersen, Allison Shumway, Peter M. Powers, Charles Mueller, Morgan P. Moschetti, Arthur Frankel, Sanaz Rezaeian, Daniel E. McNamara, Nicolas Luco, Oliver S. Boyd, Kenneth S. Rukstales, Kishor Jaiswal, Eric M. Thompson, Susan M. Hoover, Brandon Clayton, Edward H. Field, Yuehua Zeng - Software